It’s the second race of the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs! And yes, while it’s also Week 1 for the NFL, we’ve still got some exciting racing lined up on Sunday. Kansas Speedway has produced phenomenal racing in the NextGen car. It’s a multi-groove track, you can pass, there is a little bit of tire strategy, etc. By all accounts, this track delivers. The Toyota’s have dominated Kansas since the introduction of the NextGen car. Denny Hamlin won this race in the Spring and he led off the Hollywood Casino 400 preview earlier this week. I highly recommend checking in on this race because it’s bound to be an exciting afternoon in Kansas. Here are the Hollywood Casino 400 picks for Sunday afternoon’s main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Hollywood Casino 400 Picks: The Top Ten
- Christopher Bell (#20 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Kyle Larson (#5 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Martin Truex Jr. (#19 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Chase Elliott (#9 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Tyler Reddick (#45 23XI Racing)
- Ross Chastain (#1 Trackhouse Racing)
- Michael McDowell (#34 Front Row Motorsports)
- Austin Dillon (#3 Richard Childress Racing)
- William Byron (#24 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Bubba Wallace (#23 23XI Racing)
Fairly interesting qualifying results from Saturday afternoon. The Fords looked much more sporty a week ago. For Kansas, they looked to struggle with long-run speed. The top ten is made up of four Toyota’s, five Chevy’s, and just one Ford. But it wouldn’t be too surprising to see a Toyota win once again at Kansas. Christopher Bell won the pole for the second straight week. Don’t forget the pit crew upgrade he got prior to the start of the playoffs. His teammate, Martin Truex Jr., will start right behind him. Truex looked great in the long run during practice, as did Kyle Larson. Ross Chastain laid down some fast laps in qualifying, but he’s so tough to read. However, on all the 1.5-mile intermediate races during the NextGen era, Chastain is the only driver to complete every single lap.
Which Value-Priced Hollywood Casino 400 Picks Got A Points Movement Bump?
DraftKings
- Ty Gibbs – $7,600; Starting P36
- Chase Briscoe – $6,600; Starting P26
- Todd Gilliland – $5,200; Starting P32
- Ty Dillon – $4,900; Starting P33
FanDuel
- Alex Bowman – $7,500; Starting P23
- Ty Gibbs – $7,000; Starting P36
- Chase Briscoe – $6,000; Starting P26
- Ty Dillon – $2,500; Starting P33
Ty Gibbs likely emerges as the value chalk on Sunday. Easily playable in Cash games and Tournaments. He will go to a backup car for Sunday’s race, but the original ride was very fast. Chase Briscoe and Ty Dillon are other interesting value plays to consider. Briscoe looked to have top 20 speed in practice, but just didn’t lay down a good qualifying lap. Ty Dillon wasn’t great in practice, but he also didn’t run a lot of laps. However, his car has been prepped by Richard Childress Racing in recent weeks. That makes sense because Richard Childress is Ty Dillon’s grandfather. So with that bit of news, we can likely assume his car can finish much better than his P33 qualifying spot.
Which Higher-Priced Picks Got A Similar Bump?
- Denny Hamlin – P14
- Kyle Busch – P35
- Kevin Harvick – P20
- Ryan Blaney – P17
Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch are easily playable across the board. Hamlin won here in the Spring and the Toyota’s looked fast in practice and qualifying. Hamlin just didn’t crack the top ten in all. Kyle Busch didn’t post a qualifying lap because his car needed repairs. They even took the backup car off the hauler, but are choosing to fix the primary car instead. This tells me the team is satisfied with the original setup and want to salvage the speed in that ride. Blaney and Harvick are tougher to read. In general, the Fords looked off. During practice, Harvick at least looked like he might have a top ten car for Sunday. Blaney might be a fringe top 20 car and the qualifying effort supports that. Hamlin and Busch are the only slam dunks for position differential in the top tier.
Hollywood Casino 400 Picks
DraftKings
- Martin Truex Jr. – $10,700; Starting P3
- Kyle Larson – $10,500; Starting P2
- Kyle Busch – $9,600; Starting P35
- Ty Gibbs – $7,600; Starting P36
- Chase Briscoe – $6,600; Starting P26
- Ty Dillon – $4,900; Starting P33
I’m unsure if I like this lineup enough for Tournaments, but I think it’s fine for Cash games. You play the obvious position differential plays with Kyle Busch and Ty Gibbs. You’re also hammering two potential winners and dominators with Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. Briscoe and Dillon are the big concerns. But Briscoe’s five-and-ten-lap averages were in the top 15. With Dillon you’re just hoping he can finish 28th or better. It’s a good mix of PD and dominators. Dillon and Briscoe ultimately become the difference makers to take down a big payday.
FanDuel
- Kyle Larson – $13,000; Starting P2
- Kyle Busch – $11,500; Starting P35
- Bubba Wallace – $10,500; Starting P10
- Kevin Harvick – $8,000; Starting P20
- Ty Gibbs – $7,000; Starting P36
Again, another lineup I’m likely content playing in Cash games. But it also gets a little different from the previous build for DraftKings. FanDuel’s scoring is more about overall finishing position in addition to position differential. Kyle Busch and Ty Gibbs offer plenty of position differential points. Kevin Harvick has top ten upside as we see most weeks. Kyle Larson could get out front and carry over the success from a week ago. His car is great in the long run. I also added Bubba Wallace because he’s had great speed at this track and won this race a year ago. For FanDuel’s scoring, we have win equity and five drivers that can score well if they move up and/or finish well.
White Flag Thoughts Before You Go
With the start of the NFL season we’re starting to see the NASCAR DFS contests diminish. I’d be lying if I said I was committing my normal bankroll to Sunday’s race. But there’s still an edge to be gained and money to be made. This table from Ryan at iFantasyRace is a great metric to see who was great in the long run. Managing tires will be key as it looked like tires were going down with ease. Or at least that was the case for Kyle Busch and Ty Gibbs who sustained the most damage after losing a tire. Kansas also has multiple grooves for racing, so we may see fewer wrecks and longer green flag runs. Best of luck for Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400! I hope to see some of you in victory lane!