The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs are finally here! It’s a bit unconventional to kick the playoff action off at Atlanta Motor Speedway, but alas, here we are. Having now run five races at the new configuration for this track, we seemingly have enough of a sample size to know what to expect. Or at least, that should be the case. This track struggled to produce a great product, but this race in the spring actually delivered on its promise and now the expectations for this race rather high. It’s odd to have two drafting races in the playoffs. It appears NASCAR realized that error and opted to not go that route for 2025. But this race does present a unique opportunity for a longshot playoff driver to potentially win and move on to the next round. Here are the NASCAR DFS Quaker State 400 picks!
Quaker State 400 Picks: The Top 10
- Michael McDowell (#34 Front Row Motorsports)
- Ryan Blaney (#12 Team Penske)
- Todd Gilliland (#38 Front Row Motorsports)
- Josh Berry (#4 Stewart-Haas Racing)
- Austin Cindric (#2 Team Penske)
- Kyle Larson (#5 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Joey Logano (#22 Team Penske)
- Austin Dillon (#3 Richard Childress Racing)
- William Byron (#24 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Chase Briscoe (#14 Stewart-Haas Racing)
For the Quaker State 400 picks, we’re looking at a good amount of Fords in the top 10. And I can’t say I’m too surprised. The Fords are historically great at drafting tracks and six of the first seven drivers are Fords. The downside is that we can’t stack too many of these options. Even full Penske stacks are risky. Blaney, Cindric, and Logano all start in the top seven. Even playing both Front Row Motorsports drivers is tricky. Michael McDowell will have teammate Todd Gilliland starting behind him, but we can’t go too crazy with those plays in the event one or both go backward. The fade may be Kyle Larson. Historically, he just isn’t great in drafting races. It’s not that it’s impossible for him to grab a top five. But he did qualify well and we don’t have the win equity we normally do.
Which Value-Priced Quaker State 400 Picks Got A Points Movement Bump?
DraftKings
- Daniel Suarez – $7,500; Starting P30
- Erik Jones – $6,900; Starting P33
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – $6,700; Starting P27
- Corey LaJoie – $6,300; Starting P25
- Justin Haley – $6,100; Starting P29
- Carson Hocevar – $5,700; Starting P32
- John Hunter Nemechek – $5,600; Starting P35
- Zane Smith – $5,400; Starting P34
FanDuel
- Martin Truex Jr. – $7,800; Starting P22
- Bubba Wallace – $7,500; Starting P24
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – $5,500; Starting P27
- Erik Jones – $5,200; Starting P33
- Justin Haley – $4,200; Starting P29
- Corey LaJoie – $4,000; Starting P25
- John Hunter Nemechek – $3,800; Starting P35
- Carson Hocevar – $3,500; Starting P32
- Zane Smith – $2,500; Starting P34
Honestly, I can’t remember the last time there were vast pricing discrepancies between DraftKings and FanDuel. It certainly spices up the Quaker State 400 picks. This is a race where you can leave some money on the table. But FanDuel clearly hasn’t paid attention to MTJ’s average running position in the draft, and it’s like they’re trying to set up Bubba Wallace as a trap play. There will certainly be plenty of chalk on this slate. Daniel Suarez starts P30 and won this race in the spring. He’s gotten better as a drafter and it showed back in February. Corey LaJoie might just emerge as a contrarian play. He won’t draw the ownership of the more recognizable names. He also doesn’t offer as much PD as other value plays. But he’s shown he can perform well here and came close to winning a few years ago.
Which Higher-Priced Drivers Got A Similar Bump?
- Brad Keselowski – Starting P19
- Denny Hamlin – Starting P38
- Chase Elliott – Starting P16
- Chris Buescher – Starting P17
- Ross Chastain – Starting P18
- Kyle Busch – Starting P15
- Tyler Reddick – Starting P23
- Christopher Bell – Starting P26
- Martin Truex Jr. – Starting P22 (DraftKings)
- Bubba Wallace – Starting P24 (DraftKings)
- Daniel Suarez – Starting P30 (FanDuel)
Obviously, we have an abundance of names here. And not all offer a ton of position differential by any means. You can simply lock Denny Hamlin in your cash games lineups. He will be popular, so I’d say you just play him along with everyone else. From there we have a fun mix of drivers starting between P15 and P26 and it shouldn’t be that difficult squeezing in the drivers you want for this race. But don’t solely live in this tier of drivers. You do need to mix in some value plays and possibly one or two drivers starting in the top tier.
Quaker State 400 Picks
DraftKings
- Brad Keselowski – $10,300; Starting P19
- Denny Hamlin – $10,000; Starting P38
- Kyle Busch – $8,800; Starting P15
- Martin Truex Jr. – $8,100; Starting P22
- Corey LaJoie – $6,300; Starting P25
- John Hunter Nemechek – $5,600; Starting P35
This lineup on DraftKings leaves $900 on the table and I may not settle on this one prior to lock. We lean into several popular plays like Hamlin, Truex, and Keselowski. But I don’t anticipate a ton of ownership or exposure going towards Kyle Busch, Corey LaJoie, or John Hunter Nemechek. But perhaps I’m a little too light on dominator potential, so that’s where I could draw the line and make some changes. This build would certainly need chaos. Essentially everyone in the top 10 would have to fall out of the optimal build. That’s very risky especially considering all the Fords in the top 10. I will keep an open mind to possibly adjust this lineup with other Quaker State 400 picks.
FanDuel
- Joey Logano – $13,500; Starting P7
- Kyle Busch – $11,000; Starting P15
- Ross Chastain – $8,500; Starting P18
- Austin Cindric – $8,000; Starting P5
- Martin Truex Jr. – $7,800; Starting P22
Despite the name recognition, I am surprised this lineup leaves $1,200 on the table over on FanDuel. Obviously, this lineup takes more risks than the DraftKings build. But it does feature a mini-Penske stack with Logano and Cindric. Cindric’s team probably knows they need a win here to keep their playoff hopes alive. That is more than what we can say for Busch and Chastain. They didn’t make the playoffs. But a few of these drivers did make the Quaker State 400 Preview earlier in the week. It’s risky and unconventional, but we are trying to nail the winner and four drivers to finish well on FanDuel. This lineup features that kind of upside.
White Flag Thoughts Before You Go
Given the nature of this kind of race, I’m playing light. All the research and lineup construction analysis can only go so far. While anyone can win a race like this, typically it comes from one of the more notable manufacturers. And with the NFL officially returning this weekend, we’re starting to see it take a bit of a toll on the NASCAR DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel. Next week, we do have some road course action at Watkins Glen and I’ll feel much better about building more lineups and investing more to increase my chances. But you can’t take the usual approach of stacking the back at a hybrid race like this. Mix in some dominator upside (more than my DraftKings lineup) and take some risks!