The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs are finally here! Atlanta Motor Speedway will host the first race of the 2024 playoffs. The Cup Series did race here earlier this year all the way back in February but it delivered one of the best finishes in NASCAR history. But the playoffs can finally begin as the field is set. Oddly enough, we can probably reference the Daytona preview from two weeks ago. While Atlanta and Daytona still have their differences, they share the same commonality of drafting. It certainly is a bit odd to see a drafting race kick off the playoffs especially because Talladega looms on the schedule next month. But it’s a race anybody can win, although we do give additional weight to the playoff drivers. Here are the latest drivers to have on your radar for the Quaker State 400 preview!
Quaker State 400 Preview: The Top Plays
Ryan Blaney (#12 Ford)
Blaney is a playoff-eligible driver and he was one of the three drivers in contention for the win here back in February. Overall, Blaney has finished ninth or better in four straight races at Atlanta. And in general, Team Penske thrives in this style of racing. Ford tends to run very well in all drafting races, but Blaney has win equity. He won the playoff race at Talladega last year which was basically the start to his championship run. He had a very early departure in last week’s race at Darlington so this is a great bounce-back opportunity. I expect him to find his way to the front and even collect some dominator points. But we definitely need him to be in contention over the final few laps.
William Byron (#24 Chevrolet)
This is really an all-or-nothing type of play for the Quaker State 400 preview. And that’s surprising to say since Byron has three wins on the year. He hasn’t won in almost five months, but he did win this year’s Daytona 500 and he was seventh at Talladega. In the NextGen era (which coincides with Atlanta’s renovation), Byron does have two wins. But on the flip side, he’s also wrecked twice. That’s just the nature of pack racing. But perhaps the team is done experimenting with setups. It’s the playoffs and for a driver who has won here twice before, he is primed to go to victory lane once again and advance to the next round of the playoffs.
Brad Keselowski (#6 Ford)
Keselowski is notoriously good in the draft. Everyone knows it. Have the wins come along with the reputation? Not always as he has just one win since moving over to the 6-car. But he did make the playoffs this year. And this is a track he can use to help him move to the next round where Talladega awaits. Keselowski wrecked in the first Atlanta race this year but led a couple laps. Last year he finished second and sixth in the two Atlanta races where he led a combined 66 laps. Anyone can win this race, but we give a little emphasis to playoff drivers who are strong in the draft.
Quaker State 400 Preview: Wouldn’t Bet Against Them
Martin Truex Jr. (#19 Toyota)
It wasn’t pretty. Not one bit. But Martin Truex Jr. made the playoffs in his final season in the NASCAR Cup Series. And he did it despite wrecking very early last week at Darlington. I’m not sure if we’ll see MTJ win a race this year. At times he’s looked like he’s checked out. And even though he made the playoffs this year, I’m not entirely convinced he has much motivation. But just a couple of weeks ago for Daytona, we mentioned how well he’s run in the draft this year. But what we care about are finishes, which haven’t necessarily been there for him of late. He’s finished outside the top 20 in six of his last seven races. I still believe in the running position and speed in the draft so if this is the last time I write him up, well I wish him a happy retirement.
Kyle Busch (#8 Chevrolet)
This is clearly a year Kyle Busch would like to forget. In 2023, he won three races in his first season with Richard Childress Racing. This year? He hasn’t won at all. But, similar to Blaney, he just missed out on a win here in the spring and we can’t forget he was in contention two weeks ago at Daytona, and finished second at Darlington last week. He’s actually a strong drafter. But these races have a lot of variance. While Busch has been in contention at these types of tracks, he hasn’t gone to victory lane this year. But last year he won the first Talladega race and was top 10 at both Atlanta races. My lone concern is motivation. He’s out of it. All he really has to race for is the record of logging a win as he’s done every year of his Cup Series tenure.
Austin Cindric (#2 Ford)
I can’t believe I’m promoting Cindric above the values and sleepers. But in the Keselowski section, we acknowledged emphasizing playoff drivers who are good drafters. So that applies to Cindric as well. We live in a world where Austin Cindric, Harrison Burton, and Chase Briscoe are all playoff drivers. The Matrix is real. Cindric’s been very good at “New Atlanta.” He wrecked in the very first NextGen race at this track back in 2022, but in the last four races here he has an average finish of 7.5 and he finished fourth in this race in February with 32 laps led. He’s also a previous Daytona 500 winner and he finished top five at Talladega this year. So I’d certainly say he’s someone we may not be betting against for the Quaker State 400 preview.
The Values And Sleepers
Erik Jones (#43 Toyota)
As is the case with Toyotas on drafting tracks, they don’t have many to work with. And by that, I mean drafting and pitting together. The Toyota’s will be in the minority for this race. But they still have some great drafters like Bubba Wallace, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., and Tyler Reddick to work with. Jones has gained nine spots of position differential in all five of his races at Atlanta. Even when he finished 25th back in February, he started P37 so was still okay for DFS. In his previous four races at Atlanta, he finished 14th or better including a pair of top 10 finishes. All this is to say that he’ll be on several radars for this race. Legacy Motor Club has struggled to qualify well this year. I’m expecting he’ll once again be a PD target on Sunday.
Justin Haley (#51 Ford)
It’s not the sexiest play, but it’s got teeth. Haley’s actually a pretty good drafter. It helps that he’s in a Ford and has an alliance with RFK Racing. But Haley did win a Cup Series race at Daytona a handful of years ago. Granted, that race was cut short due to weather and he just so happened to be in the lead at the time of the caution. But he has plenty of wins in the Xfinity Series during his time with Kaulig Racing. Specifically at the new configuration for the Quaker State 400 preview, he’s never finished worse than 22nd in five races. In four of those races, he’s gained at least nine sports in terms of position differential. And to top off the stat sharing, he’s finished 11th or better here three times.
Corey LaJoie (#7 Spire Motorsports)
LaJoie isn’t in the playoffs. To make matters worse, he doesn’t have a ride for next year. I’d be very surprised if he landed a Cup ride at this point. He doesn’t have any career wins and just isn’t a good driver overall. However, his best chances have always come at the drafting tracks. Similar to Haley, LaJoie has gained nine spots of position differential in four of the five races here since 2022. He actually tends to gain more PD than Haley because he qualifies worse. Back in February he started P32 and finished 13th. In the spring of 2023, he started P31 and finished fourth. And in the spring of 2022, he started P33 and finished fifth. I won’t be deterred from writing him up because the summer results haven’t been as good. He almost won this race two years ago and he’s affordable.