The NASCAR Cup Series kicks off the round of eight with four races remaining. Las Vegas Motor Speedway will play host this weekend for the South Point 400. With four races remaining, the remaining eight drivers have three chances to qualify for the championship race in Phoenix. A lot has been said about this new playoff format. Martin Truex Jr., the regular season champion, has done poorly through six races. He hasn’t finished top 15 in any playoff race. Yet he cruised to the round of eight because of stage points and the bonus for being the regular season champ. However, we basically hit the reset button for these next few races. The tracks this round are far better than the round of 12. Let’s take a look at Sunday’s South Point 400 picks for DraftKings and FanDuel.
As noted in this week’s South Point 400 Preview, Vegas is the last “cookie cutter” track on the schedule. It is 1.5 miles in length and shaped like a tri-oval. The surface is a little more worn. With each race here it seems like tire wear plays more of a role. But this is a race with a healthy amount of laps. Multiple dominators will be needed to take down a Tournament. So here are the results from practice and qualifying for Sunday’s race.
South Point 400 Picks: The Top 10
- Christopher Bell (#20 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Kyle Larson (#5 Hendrick Motorsports)
- William Byron (#24 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Martin Truex Jr. (#19 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Chris Buescher (#17 RFK Racing)
- Kyle Busch (#8 Richard Childress Racing)
- Bubba Wallace (#23 23XI Racing)
- Tyler Reddick (#45 23XI Racing)
- Joey Logano (#22 Team Penske)
- Ross Chastain (#1 Trackhouse Racing)
As expected, we have some familiar names in the top 10. Christopher Bell won his sixth pole of the season and fourth of the playoffs. Kyle Larson is the betting favorite and he also starts on the front row. Vegas and Homestead are two great opportunities for him to qualify for the championship race in Phoenix. Similarly, we have William Byron who won this race in the Spring. And we also have some fast Toyotas in Martin Truex Jr., Bubba Wallace, and Tyler Reddick starting in the top eight. The Toyotas have been outstanding in this package this year. They should all have that speed carry over from practice and qualifying. Just outside the top 10 is Ty Gibbs starting P11. The rookie for JGR has flashed some top-five upside of late.
Which Value-Priced South Point 400 Picks Got A Points Movement Bump?
DraftKings
- Daniel Suarez – $7,300; Starting P36
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – $7,100; Starting P30
- J. Allmendinger – $6,600; Starting P22
- Ryan Preece – $6,100; Starting P32
- Corey LaJoie – $5,800; Starting P28
FanDuel
- Brad Keselowski – $9,000; Starting P21
- Kevin Harvick – $7,200; Starting P24
- Daniel Suarez – $6,800; Starting P36
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – $6,500; Starting P30
- Ryan Preece – $4,800; Starting P32
The “value” plays vary a bit on each site. There are two Cash game locks this week. Daniel Suarez is the first, and we’ll get to the other in the next section. But Kevin Harvick is so mispriced on FanDuel that he’s a great value play. He’s had a quiet season, but he’s done well on this style of track throughout his career. He’ll always have the potential for a top 10. This weekend is no different. Diving deeper we have the usual suspects. Stenhouse doesn’t have as much upside on non-superspeedways. However, he still has arguably a top 20 car. Preece is never a “confidence” play but he’s in good equipment and routinely qualifies toward the back. Even for this race, he may only be good for a top 25.
Which Higher-Priced Drivers Got A Similar Bump?
- Denny Hamlin – P15
- Chase Elliott – P35
- Brad Keselowski – P21 (DraftKings)
- Kevin Harvick – P24 (DraftKings)
Daniel Suarez and Chase Elliott are the two names you just lock into Cash games on Sunday. Just eat the chalk with those two since they start so far back and move along with your day. Denny Hamlin qualified P15. He made some comments earlier this week on his podcast describing how they never qualify well at Vegas, but they always race well. That should be no different on Sunday. I’ve already touched on Kevin Harvick for FanDuel, but even at $8,000 on DraftKings he’s still a great play. Brad Keselowski is an okay play at his price tag on either site. He carries top 15 equity. But that organization’s focus is on getting Chris Buescher in the championship race.
South Point 400 Picks
DraftKings
- William Byron – $10,600; Starting P3
- Christopher Bell – $9,800; Starting P1
- Chase Elliott – $9,200; Starting P35
- Kevin Harvick – $8,000; Starting P24
- Ryan Preece – $6,100; Starting P32
- Justin Haley – $5,900; Starting P20
This is a standard intermediate GPP lineup. It focuses in on two dominators while also grabbing position differential. If Byron and Bell collect most of the available dominator points, with one of them winning, then this build likely scores well. Additionally, we eat the chalk with Chase Elliott. We could have easily fit Daniel Suarez in, but he likely carries more ownership. But there’s also more variance to Suarez. We find value with Ryan Preece and Justin Haley. Preece, as mentioned, may just be a top 25 car tomorrow. That’s okay. We can take the easy points and hopefully he finds a way to 30+ fantasy points on DraftKings.
FanDuel
- Denny Hamlin – $13,500; Starting P15
- Tyler Reddick – $12,500; Starting P8
- Chase Elliott – $10,000; Starting P35
- Kevin Harvick – $7,200; Starting P24
- Daniel Suarez – $6,800; Starting P36
This lineup has more “Cash Game” vibes to it than the DraftKings example. This lineup eats the Elliott and Suarez chalk, while still mixing in Kevin Harvick as well. But with Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick, we once again grab two Toyotas that carry win equity. Hamlin won this race two years ago and almost won Kansas last month but lost to Tyler Reddick. While the core of the lineup caters more towards Cash game contests, the drivers we’re spending up for allow us to potentially find some leverage, especially with Reddick.
White Flag Thoughts Before You Go
After a wonky round of eight, it’s great to return to tracks like Vegas, Homestead, and Martinsville in this round. This aero package has produced great racing on the comparable tracks for Vegas. Next week at Homestead shapes up to be another outstanding race for the NextGen car. While the last three races felt somewhat like a gimmick, this round should deliver. We shouldn’t expect one driver to completely dominate this race. Be mindful of that when constructing your lineups on DraftKings. You’ll want at least two dominator candidates to scoop up as many laps led and fastest lap points. Regarding the Elliott and Suarez chalk; be mindful of your exposure. Lock ‘em in for Cash games. But don’t plug them into every single Tournament lineup. If they bust, your day is done. Best of luck this weekend! I hope lady luck is on your side!