It’s time to kick off the Round of Eight for the 2024 NASCAR playoffs! We head to Sin City for the first race of this round. The beauty of the remaining for races? These tracks really put the fate of the race in the drivers’ hands. No road courses. And no drafting races. We kick it off at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. After the controversy last weekend that put Joey Logano back in the playoff picture, it really feels like the eight drivers remaining are the eight best from this season. Vegas is a fairly standard 1.5-mile intermediate track with moderate-to-high tire wear. And it’s an early race Sunday afternoon. Make sure you lock in your NASCAR DFS lineups early on. Let’s look at the qualifying results as we look to create our NASCAR DFS South Point 400 picks.
South Point 400 Picks: The Top 10
- Christopher Bell (#20 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Tyler Reddick (#45 23XI Racing)
- Alex Bowman (#48 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Denny Hamlin (#11 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Kyle Larson (#5 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Carson Hocevar (#77 Spire Motorsports)
- Ross Chastain (#1 Trackhouse Racing)
- Ty Gibbs (#54 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- William Byron (#24 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Joey Logano (#22 Team Penske)
Six of the eight remaining playoff drivers qualified in the top 10 for our South Point 400 picks. I take pride in the fact that the first six drivers from this week’s South Point 400 Preview made the top 10 as well. For most Vegas races, we usually see the winner come from inside the top 10. So these drivers definitely carry the most win equity for this race. If we’re targeting dominators, we likely want two from this group. Tyler Reddick is arguably the favorite to win this race as he was incredibly fast in practice. He has the luxury of starting on the front row. But don’t sleep on Martin Truex Jr., who starts just outside the top 10. I know we’ve had concerns. He certainly has seemed checked out at times. But he was surprisingly fast in practice and works well as a secondary dominator.
Which Value-Priced South Point 400 Picks Got A Points Movement Bump?
DraftKings
- Chris Buescher – $7,700; Starting P22
- Chase Briscoe – $7,400; Starting P24
- Noah Gragson – $7,100; Starting P21
- Erik Jones – $6,800; Starting P27
- Shane van Gisbergen – $6,500; Starting P34
- Todd Gilliland – $5,800; Starting P30
- Ryan Preece – $5,600; Starting P32
FanDuel
- Chris Buescher – $7,500; Starting P22
- Chase Briscoe – $7,200; Starting P24
- Noah Gragson – $6,800; Starting P21
- Erik Jones – $6,200; Starting P27
- Ryan Preece – $5,000; Starting P32
- Shane van Gisbergen – $4,500; Starting P34
- Todd Gilliland – $3,800; Starting P30
I give credit to FanDuel. I don’t do that often. But their pricing feels a bit tighter than normal. Normally in this price range we’re really dumpster diving. But some of the prices for these drivers aren’t far off from their DraftKings tag(s). These seven drivers are the options I think have sneaky upside for a top 10 finish or they can at least gain 10 spots of position differential. Todd Gilliland might be very popular so if you seek leverage, Ryan Preece is definitely the way to go. I did exclude Daniel Suarez, who I do like but not entirely convinced he can gain 10 spots. I think he’s capable of a top 15 finish, but he might need a little more chaos to hit the optimal lineup for our South Point 400 picks.
Which Higher-Priced Drivers Got A Similar Bump?
- Chase Elliott – Starting P18
- Ryan Blaney – Starting P37
- Kyle Busch – Starting P20
Not a whole lot to take away from here. Ryan Blaney starts at the rear after a hard wreck in practice. He ran one lap but had a puncture in the left rear tire and so Blaney was unable to post a qualifying lap. He is arguably the safest play on the slate since he cannot accumulate negative points. You should be locking him in for cash games. Chase Elliott is the other playoff driver, alongside Blaney, starting outside the top 10. Both Elliott and Kyle Busch are capable of moving up 10 spots and finishing in the top 10 which was the bar we were setting among the value plays for the South Point 400 picks.
South Point 400 Picks
DraftKings
- Denny Hamlin – $10,600; Starting P4
- Tyler Reddick – $10,000; Starting P2
- Ryan Blaney – $9,300; Starting P37
- Chris Buescher – $7,700; Starting P22
- Erik Jones – $6,800; Starting P27
- Ryan Preece – $5,600; Starting P32
I’m not fully committed to this lineup as of Saturday evening. The only two drivers starting in the top 20 are the dominator candidates (Reddick and Hamlin). This lineup eats the chalk with Blaney and does find a little leverage with Preece. But I have a hard time believing both Preece and Jones can be optimal in this race and gain 10+ spots of position differential. Ideally, I’d like to get an additional driver starting in the top 20. Pivoting off Blaney and Buescher for Elliott and Bubba Wallace is certainly something we could consider. My lone concern playing Bubba is that 23XI Racing is likely giving the full commitment to Tyler Reddick for this race since Wallace isn’t in the playoff picture anymore.
FanDuel
- Tyler Reddick – $12,500; Starting P2
- Ryan Blaney – $11,500; Starting P37
- Chase Elliott – $10,000; Starting P18
- Ty Gibbs – $8,500; Starting P8
- Chris Buescher – $7,500; Starting P22
This lineup came together rather seamlessly. And remember, because FanDuel de-values dominator points, we don’t need to force two dominators into the lineup. And even then, we do get a sneaky dominator (Ty Gibbs) into the build who still scores very well with a top 10 finish. But we have other popular options like Reddick, Blaney, and Elliott. All three are playoff drivers. But Chris Buescher has some top 10 equity. This lineup leaves no money on the table but I’m happy to play it in some contests on FanDuel utilizing our South Point 400 picks to potentially win big.
White Flag Thoughts Before You Go
With four races to go, we’re really seeing the contests dwindle. Thanks to the NFL season, and diminishing ratings, NASCAR is definitely taking a backseat. So if you’re scaling back and just trying to get your iron man credits for playing every week, I don’t blame you. But if you’re committed to ending the season on a high note, definitely dig into the practice results to find some gems. Tyler Reddick is trendy and popular. But get some exposure to Truex, Larson, Byron, Bell, and maybe even drivers like Chastain and Bowman. Best of lucky with this week’s South Point 400 picks!