We are officially on the back stretch for the 2024 NASCAR playoffs. We enter the Round of Eight with four total races left this year. There was also a little bit of drama at Charlotte last week. Kyle Larson got the win and it looked as if Joey Logano saw his playoff chances die. However, Alex Bowman was disqualified from Sunday’s race. In doing so, he lost his playoff spot and Logano saw his playoff chances come back to life. So we reset and recalibrate as we head to Sin City and Las Vegas. Vegas is your standard 1.5-mile tri-oval that compares well to Kansas. The good news for our NASCAR DFS lineups is that this is a relatively easy race to predict come Sunday. Let’s take a look at this week’s NASCAR DFS South Point 400 preview!
South Point 400 Preview: The Top Plays
Kyle Larson (#5 Chevrolet)
It’s another week where we kick it off with Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin. However, since the last two races were a superspeedway and a road course, we haven’t previewed either in a few weeks. But you’ve all heard the argument before. It’s a 1.5-mile tri-oval. NASCAR will be running the intermediate package. It’s arguably the most common aero package they run every year. Larson has easily spanked the field in the last two Vegas races. He touts driver ratings over 145, won both races and the accompanying stages, and he led 314 total laps between both races. He has six wins on the year with one of those also being the first Kansas race. He’s an easy driver to list for the South Point 400 preview.
Denny Hamlin (#11 Toyota)
And to no one’s surprise, we pivot to Denny Hamlin for our South Point 400 preview. Hamlin only has half the wins Larson has this year, but none have come on intermediate tracks. However, he does have two wins on shorter tracks that run the intermediate package (Bristol and Dover). But even his last win came nearly six months ago. He’s arguably been more dominant at the shorter, flat tracks so I’m not sure how much potential he has to lead laps. But on the surface, he’s still routinely bringing a top-five car to these tracks. He was top five earlier in the year at Kansas-1, Darlington-1, and Charlotte. The results lately leave a lot to be desired. But this might be his best chance to win and lock himself into the championship race.
William Byron (#24 Chevrolet)
We mentioned this in previous articles when writing up Byron. He got off to a great start in the 2024 season and then cooled off. He won the Daytona 500 and then collected wins at COTA and Martinsville. But that Martinsville win was well over six months ago. Whether the team was playing around with the aero setup during the summer, he’s trending in the right direction for this race. At the varying tracks in the Round of 12 (Kansas, Talladega, and the ROVAL) Byron finished top three at all of them and even led 24 laps at Kansas. He’s not as much of a lock as Kyle Larson. But Larson will likely get a lot of exposure. Everyone knows about his win equity and upside. Byron is at least trending in the right direction heading into Vegas and has a win at this track on his resume.
South Point 400 Preview: Wouldn’t Bet Against Them
Tyler Reddick (#45 Toyota)
Reddick has had speed at the intermediates this year. That hasn’t translated to a ton of wins, but he arguably had the second-best car at the first Vegas race seven months ago. He also grabbed the win at Michigan over the summer. Is that a great comparison for Vegas? Not quite. But it’s a higher-speed intermediate track. He doesn’t have a top five finish since that win. However, the overall speed on the intermediates has stood out. He’s currently 10 points above the cut line and so while he isn’t completely desperate, we have some win juice here.
Ty Gibbs (#54 Toyota)
It’s hard to figure out Ty Gibbs. And even putting him in this section for our South Point 400 preview seems like we’re giving him too much credit. In his first three Cup Series races at Vegas, Gibbs finished outside the top 20. However, this past spring he did grab a top five. He also grabbed top-five finishes at similar intermediates like Darlington-1 and Kansas-2. I’ll even add that he finished sixth at Charlotte with 74 laps led. He likely won’t make our cash game lineups. But he does pose some upside at this track. I’m of the mindset that the Cup Series schedule has worn on him a bit. He still doesn’t have a win at this level, but the equipment and talent are there.
Ross Chastain (#1 Chevrolet)
With Daniel Suarez eliminated from the playoffs, Trackhouse Racing really only has to race for wins at this point. Ross Chastain is easily their best bet to go to victory lane. Chastain finished fourth at Vegas in the spring and he led 43 laps at Kansas-1 despite finishing 19th. Earlier in the playoffs he grabbed a top five at Darlington-2 and he won the second Kansas race at the end of September with 52 laps led. He’s basically brought a top 10 car to every comparable 1.5-mile tri-oval. It’s hard to imagine him winning twice in a four-race span. However, Chastain does have the ability to go out and lead 40-50 laps while grabbing a great finish.
The Values and Sleepers
Noah Gragson (#10 Ford)
Gragson paid huge dividends for NASCAR DFS players back in the spring. He started P30 and finished sixth. Even two years ago at Vegas, he subbed in and drove the 48-car when Alex Bowman had a concussion. He started P17 and finished 11th. In his one race at Vegas with Legacy Motor Club he started P25 and finished 30th. That makes sense since Legacy isn’t the greatest organization. It also helps that this is considered his home track. So obviously, this one means a little more to him. He may fly under the radar because he doesn’t have a ton of momentum entering this weekend. But there is top 10 upside and he probably won’t qualify all that well.
Erik Jones (#43 Toyota)
While I did just poke fun at Legacy Motor Club, Erik Jones has the potential for a top 20. In the last four races at Vegas, Jones does have three top-20 finishes. Even this past spring, he started P22 and finished 14th, and in this race two years ago he managed to grab a top 10, but that was when the organization had the Chevrolet affiliate. The playoffs have been horrendous for Jones, but earlier in the year he did well on the comparable tracks. He was top 20 at Texas, Darlington-1, and Charlotte. Even on the larger intermediates like Pocono and Michigan, he finished 14th and 16th respectively. We don’t get much out of Jones, but if he starts deep in the field, he can provide cheap value with a top 20.
Corey LaJoie (#51 Ford)
We wrap up the South Point 400 preview with a complete shot in the dark. LaJoie was basically traded from Spire Motorsports to Rick Ware Racing about a month ago. In his first race with the organization, he started P27 and finished 15th at Kansas. That’s the closest correlation to Vegas we can possibly get. He even grabbed a top 20 at Talladega but had an engine issue last week. There is a large “fear of the unknown” factor with LaJoie. The sample size with this new team is not great. But at least he had a good run at Kansas. Granted, there were 10 cautions in that race. That’s a bit high for an intermediate track. But if LaJoie looks slow in practice then we can easily find another value option to pivot to for Sunday’s race.