We are down to just three races remaining in the 2024 NASCAR season. Vegas was certainly an eventful weekend. A.J. Allmendinger and Joey Logano locked themselves into their respective championship races in Phoenix. Allmendinger had just six top-five finishes in the Xfinity Series with no wins heading into Vegas. Similarly, Logano had just five top-five finishes with two wins heading into Vegas and he needed an Alex Bowman DQ to even make the Round of Eight. A lot has been made about the playoff format and its legitimacy. And it’s certainly a discussion NASCAR should have in the coming years. But for this weekend, we head to South Florida. Here is this week’s NASCAR DFS Straight Talk Wireless 400 preview!
Before we dig into the Straight Talk Wireless 400 preview, it’s worth discussing the track. Homestead-Miami probably doesn’t get enough attention. It’s up there with Kansas, Charlotte, and Darlington among the best tracks on the schedule. The most correlation is likely with Darlington Raceway. When it comes to high tire wear tracks, Darlington and Homestead top the charts. But Homestead is a phenomenal track and it used to host the Championship race every year. We really see this track put the fate of the race in the drivers’ hands. We should definitely see a great race on Sunday as another driver looks to lock themselves into the Cup Series Championship race in Phoenix.
Straight Talk Wireless 400 Preview: The Top Plays
Kyle Larson (#5 Chevrolet)
It’s time to kick this off with Kyle Larson once again for the Straight Talk Wireless 400 preview. This track is tailor-made for Larson. And yeah, at this point in the year, we’re kind of burnt out on previewing Larson. But at the same time, it’s an intermediate track with very high tire wear. Larson knows how to manage his tires. However, the most important factor is the multiple grooves. Homestead is a track where those who can successfully run the higher line along the wall, will have the most success. He won this race two years ago where he led 199 laps and last year, he led 99 laps but wrecked in the third stage. He will probably be the most popular driver for the race, regardless of where he qualifies. It’s a bold week to fade this driver.
William Byron (#24 Chevrolet)
Byron is in a unique spot. We’ve previewed him previously and noted how he’s cooled off since his three wins early in the year. But if we’re looking at track history Byron serves as a good secondary dominator to Larson who has the best track history of any driver in the field. But Byron won this race in the spring of 2021 where he led 102 laps. In the NextGen era (2022 and 2023) he’s led at least 25 laps in each Homestead race while finishing 12th and 4th. He has plenty of momentum coming into this race as well. He’s finished top four in four straight races and is 27 points above the cut line. It’s a great opportunity for either Larson or Byron to lock themselves into the championship race with a win.
Tyler Reddick (#45 Toyota)
We’ve noted in previous articles, including last week, how Reddick and Larson have similar driving styles. That’s especially true in that they manage their tires well at tracks like Homestead. More importantly, they both run the high line incredibly well. In four career Cup Series races at Homestead, Reddick has finished fourth or better in three of them. He has a pair of wins at Homestead in the Xfinity Series and in the last three Cup Series races at Darlington, he’s led 265 laps. So there is dominator potential here. He is a little more desperate than Byron and Larson for the win. He’s 30 points below the cut line so he can’t afford a bad performance.
Straight Talk Wireless 400 Preview: Wouldn’t Bet Against Them
Christopher Bell (#20 Toyota)
With Logano winning at Vegas last week, that puts some of the best drivers in a tight spot. Tyler Reddick, the regular season champion, is now 30 points below the cut line. Even Denny Hamlin is 27 points out. Bell is luckily 42 points to the good. He’s actually in a better position than Larson or Byron. So he doesn’t need to be as aggressive. But he’s raced for a championship the last two years and wants to get back to Phoenix for a third chance at the title. He knows that he can’t assume he’ll automatically qualify for Phoenix. Bell did win this race last year although he did not have the best car. But he did finish third in September at Darlington. He isn’t the best at this type of track, but we can never sleep on a driver with as much talent as Bell.
Martin Truex Jr. (#19 Toyota)
I can’t believe I’m doing this again, but after a promising performance at Vegas, I’m lukewarm on MTJ for this race. Truex was very fast in practice last week. He started P12 and finished 6th but also collected 5.8 dominator points on DraftKings. It’s not much, but he did okay despite having a down year. Truex has had some great runs historically at Homestead. He won the Championship race here back in 2017 and was the runner-up in 2018 and 2019. Two years ago, the first year of the NextGen car, he started P12 and finish 6th with 28 laps led. Last year he won the pole and led 10 laps while running in the top 10 most of the day. But engine failure in stage three led to a poor finish.
Bubba Wallace (#23 Toyota)
It’s hard to gauge how much of a value Bubba will be. I anticipate he’ll be in the $7K range on DraftKings. But for the Straight Talk Wireless 400 preview, he’s a noteworthy driver to list here. In four of five NextGen races at Darlington, he’s finished in the top 10. And the one race he didn’t grab a top 10 was back in September where he won the pole and led 37 laps. But in four straight races there he’s scored a driver rating over 90. At Homestead a year ago, he started P2 and hung around up front to finish sixth. All in all, the equipment is still great. But be mindful, he does not have the upside that Tyler Reddick has.
The Values and Sleepers
A.J. Allmendinger (#16 Chevrolet)
So we discussed Allmendinger at the top of the article and there are reasons for optimism. For starters, he’s already locked into the Xfinity Series championship. So for that particular series, Homestead and Martinsville don’t really matter for him. As far as the Xfinity Series goes, Dinger is focused on Phoenix. However, he’s not a playoff-eligible driver in the Cup Series until next year. For this race on Sunday, he doesn’t need to race for points. He’ll be going for a finish. And dare I say it, he’ll try to win it outright. Do I think the Kaulig Racing Cup Series cars are good enough to win? Only on road courses. But in the last two Cup Series Homestead races, Dinger has a pair of top five finishes.
Austin Dillon (#3 Chevrolet)
We’re looking strictly at track history with Austin Dillon. He’s not a great driver if we’re being honest. But he did technically win at Richmond earlier this year. It’s not an intermediate, but it’s a short track with high tire wear. So even though he wrecked two drivers to win, he still got to go to victory lane. He hasn’t been particularly elite at Darlington. However, he did finish 15th at the Lady in Black over Labor Day Weekend. Homestead has been a different story for Dillon and the 3-car. In his last eight races at this track, he’s finished 12th or better. It’s hard to believe he’s been that consistent here, but it’s true. In the NextGen era, he finished 4th at Homestead in 2022 and grabbed a top 10 last year.
Josh Berry (#4 Ford)
Let’s go with a complete gut call for the Straight Talk Wireless 400 preview. This race last year was basically a love letter to Kevin Harvick and it was appropriately called the 4EVER 400. For this preview, I’ll discuss the new driver in the 4-car. Ryan from iFantasyRace previews a couple of other SHR drivers for this race, but I’ll go contrarian and select Berry. Berry has been decent at this track in the Xfinity Series grabbing a pair of top 12 finishes in three races. He even registered a top-three finish this past spring at Darlington and had a top 10 car in the fall race before wrecking out. He’s had top-15 speed at a couple of other intermediates this year. He’s a driver who’ll make for a leverage option in GPP contests on Sunday.