The NASCAR Cup Series makes its annual trip to New England. And naturally, with NASCAR coming to town, weather is a big concern. Practice and qualifying were rained out for the Xfinity Series on Friday. And the Cup Series lost qualifying on Saturday. So Sunday’s starting lineup was set by the dreaded metric. They did get practice in but only for a few minutes. No one managed to get a 10-lap run in. So generating our USA Today 301 picks for Sunday’s race is a challenge. We’re mostly relying on track history and who has performed well on comparable tracks this year and the last couple of seasons. Additionally, we still have weather concerns for Sunday’s race. It won’t be easy and there’s a lot of chalk to navigate. But let’s dig in and start developing our USA Today 301 picks for Sunday’s NASCAR DFS slate.
USA Today 301 Picks: The Top 10
- Chase Elliott (#9 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Ryan Blaney (#12 Team Penske)
- William Byron (#24 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Christopher Bell (#20 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Alex Bowman (#48 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Joey Logano (#22 Team Penske)
- Martin Truex Jr. (#19 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Ross Chastain (#1 Trackhouse Racing)
- Brad Keselowski (#6 RFK Racing)
- Josh Berry (#4 Stewart-Haas Racing)
Without qualifying, this is the starting order for the top 10. The weather really sucked the fun out of Saturday’s action. We have a lot of heavy hitters in this group. If you read this week’s USA Today 301 preview, we have a few familiar names. Elliott starts on the pole and has a ton of momentum. Moreover, he hasn’t had a “bad” race by any means this year. I hope I’m not jinxing him, but his worst finish is 19th and that was way back at Phoenix. But behind him are some contenders. Christopher Bell has historically been great at New Hampshire. He even won Saturday’s Xfinity Series race. Martin Truex Jr. is also very good here. Most of the win equity and dominator potential, likely come from these drivers. Specifically, within the top seven, you have to imagine that most of the laps led are delegated among those drivers.
Which Value-Priced USA Today 301 Picks Got A Points Movement Bump?
DraftKings
- Kyle Busch – $7,700; Starting P30
- Chase Briscoe – $7,200; Starting P23
- Austin Cindric – $7,000; Starting P29
- Ryan Preece – $6,600; Starting P31
- Erik Jones – $5,900; Starting P32
- Ty Dillon – $5,600; Starting P36
- Zane Smith – $5,300; Starting P34
FanDuel
- Kyle Busch – $7,500; Starting P30
- Chase Briscoe – $6,800; Starting P23
- Austin Cindric – $6,200; Starting P29
- Michael McDowell – $6,000; Starting P25
- Ryan Preece – $5,800; Starting P31
- Erik Jones – $5,200; Starting P32
There are obviously other value plays offering position differential. However, these drivers are my favorite. Truthfully there are cheaper plays offering less PD that I’m more interested in. They’ll have less ownership and may have a higher ceiling. These drivers include Todd Gilliland, Carson Hocevar, Bubba Wallace, and a few others. It’s certainly possible to pass at New Hampshire. This is a short track, and while this aero package hasn’t been great, you can move up here. Kyle Busch is certainly going through it. The team has struggled but it’s hard to completely fade the PD he offers at such a cheap price. Chase Briscoe, Ryan Preece, and Erik Jones are also solid plays. None of them carry much win equity. But Briscoe and Preece are very affordable and perform well on shorter, flat tracks. Jones is just hilariously cheap and is a value if he can finish in the top 25.
Which Higher-Priced Drivers Got A Similar Bump?
- Denny Hamlin – Starting P14
- Kyle Larson – Starting P19
- Ty Gibbs- Starting P18
These three drivers all start in the top 20 for our USA Today 301 picks. So while they certainly offer position differential upside, you have to weigh whether you want to pay for PD or laps led. On DraftKings, you definitely want to prioritize the dominator points. So while it sounds like I’m going to make an argument that Gibbs is the best play of these three, I still likely lean towards Larson. He’s good on almost every track type. And he should easily move up from this spot and potentially lead laps later on. Both Gibbs and Hamlin are viable because Joe Gibbs Racing crushes it on comparable tracks. But Larson is still such a force to deal with that we have to believe he can move up and potentially run up front in stages two and three.
USA Today 301 Picks
DraftKings
- Kyle Larson – $10,000; Starting P19
- Chase Elliott – $9,200; Starting P1
- Chris Buescher – $8,300; Starting P15
- Kyle Busch – $7,700; Starting P30
- Bubba Wallace – $7,500; Starting P17
- Chase Briscoe – $7,200; Starting P23
I do love how seamlessly this lineup came together. And yes, it does fade Christopher Bell and Martin Truex Jr. I’ll be making 20 lineups for both sites and will get exposure to those two in other builds. But this lineup fits with ease and follows a narrative with my USA Today 301 picks. Elliott leads early on and potentially wins. And if he doesn’t, then hopefully that honor goes to Larson. But Busch can pay off his price tag if he finishes 18th. I also love the upside of Briscoe, Wallace, and Buescher. I feel that all six drivers have a chance to finish in the top 10. My lone concern is that there’s some negative correlation between Buescher and Wallace. So if I make another version of this lineup, but with pivots, I would consider swapping those two out.
FanDuel
- Martin Truex Jr. – $14,000; Starting P2
- Kyle Larson – $12,500; Starting P19
- Chase Elliott – $10,500; Starting P1
- Chase Briscoe – $6,800; Starting P23
- Ryan Preece – $5,800; Starting P31
We keep some of the same players as the DraftKings lineup. Elliott, Larson, and Briscoe all make the transfer over to this lineup. We also incorporate Martin Truex Jr. into this build. I do believe he has win equity and I like having win equity among three drivers for this build. Even if he was to finish as the runner-up, I imagine he can still lead some laps. We also move off Kyle Busch in this lineup, but that’s okay. Ryan Preece might have a similar upside just given from what we’ve seen from Busch and the 8-car this year. Preece starts one spot behind Busch, is cheaper, and has the same upside. FanDuel’s scoring can be tricky to navigate but I do like the potential for this one in tournaments.
White Flag Thoughts Before You Go
Obviously we’ll be monitoring the weather ahead of Sunday’s race. There is a chance they run this race on Monday as the track doesn’t have lights to race in the evening. But I’m optimistic they can race on Sunday. It’s a bummer that the weather has not cooperated this weekend. We still don’t really have a strong read on who has the right setup for this race. Lineup building boils down to “Does the lineup have a story, and does that story make sense?” Moreover, we’re leaning on track history and performance in this package on similar tracks. It’s frustrating and not the best week for building lineups based on the most accurate data. But don’t hesitate to take some risks and find ways to get contrarian. Best of luck with these USA Today 301 picks!