With three races left to go in the 2023 NASCAR regular season, the window is closing for drivers to secure their playoff spot. We have two road courses and then a superspeedway race at Daytona left on the schedule. All three courses/tracks are arguably very high in variance. NASCAR heads to Indianapolis Motor Speedway Sunday afternoon. With rumors the oval at Indy could return to the schedule, it may be sinking in that this could be the last NASCAR road race on the Indianapolis Grand Prix circuit. But we still have a race to break down for Sunday afternoon’s action. Don’t forget to read up on this week’s Verizon 200 Preview for some driver analysis. Let’s dive into the Verizon 200 picks and strategies for Sunday’s race at the Brickyard!
Sunday’s race will only have 82 laps. That’s not a lot by any means. If we do the math, that gives us 57.4 dominator points on DraftKings. And that’s the absolute max that we could have. With cautions we can probably assume 48-53 is more realistic. On FanDuel there are only 8.2 dominator points to target so they matter even less in that format. As is the case with road courses, dominator points mean very little. It’s about position differential and where you finish. But without stage breaks it’s a little more difficult for those drivers in the back to move up. They’ll need cautions. Fortunately, this is a race that has bred chaos over the last couple of years.
Verizon 200 Picks: The Top Ten
- Daniel Suarez (#99 Trackhouse Racing)
- Tyler Reddick (#45 23XI Racing)
- Chase Elliott (#9 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Michael McDowell (#34 Front Row Motorsports)
- Kyle Busch (#8 Richard Childress Racing)
- Kyle Larson (#5 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Christopher Bell (#20 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Shane van Gisbergen (#91 Trackhouse Racing)
- Alex Bowman (#48 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Ty Gibbs (#54 Joe Gibbs Racing)
The seven most expensive drivers on DraftKings all start inside the top 12. I wouldn’t recommend playing more than two in your NASCAR DFS lineups. Martin Truex Jr. and Tyler Reddick pairings will be popular. You have plenty of win equity, plus MTJ offers some position differential. Daniel Suarez is a nice mid-range dominator to consider because this car might have the same chassis that he had at Sonoma last year (when he won), and it was the same chassis used for Shane van Gisbergen’s win at Chicago last month. The drivers in row two (Michael McDowell and Chase Elliott) are very good road course drivers and both fighting for a win to get into the playoffs. I expect both to be aggressive and go for the win.
Which Value-Priced Verizon 200 Picks Got A Points Movement Bump?
DraftKings:
- Kevin Harvick – P38, $7,300
- Brad Keselowsk – P22, $6,900
- Erik Jones – P36, $6,300
- Austin Dillon – P27, $6,200
- Ryan Preece – P30, $5,400
FanDuel:
- William Byron – P39, $8,200
- Brad Keselowski – P22, $6,200
- Kevin Harvick – P38, $6,000
- Austin Dillon – P27, $5,000
- Erik Jones – P36, $3,500
If you’re playing cash games on either site, William Byron and Kevin Harvick are locks. Eat the chalk and find ways to get different elsewhere. They both start at the rear of the field and the equipment is too good to hang around back there the whole race. Byron failed tech three times on Friday so he wasn’t allowed to qualify. Hendrick is known for pushing the limits with their car setups. And Harvick flat-spotted a tire on his qualifying run and didn’t post a good lap. Both are underpriced, especially on FanDuel. The full lineup indicates there are more PD plays to consider in the value range. Don’t take the drivers above as scripture as the only value plays to target. There are others like Aric Almirola, Ryan Preece, and maybe Ricky Stenhouse Jr. to plug into your lineups as well.
Which Higher-Priced Picks Got A Similar Bump?
- J. Allmendinger – P26
- Chris Buescher -P17
- Denny Hamlin – P25
- William Byron – P39 (DraftKings)
William Byron is still worth playing on DraftKings. But he’s priced as more of a true “value” on FanDuel. But these drivers are all priced up and offer position differential. Allmendinger is a well-documented road course specialist. Chris Buescher is great on road courses as well and comes in having won two straight races. Hamlin has upside and could finish well. It helps his own cause that he employs Tyler Reddick at 23XI Racing and can pick his own driver’s brain for tips.
Verizon 200 Picks
DraftKings:
- Martin Truex Jr. – $10,500; Starting P12
- J. Allmendinger – $9,300; Starting P26
- William Byron – $8,900; Starting P39
- Ty Gibbs – $7,400; Starting P10
- Kevin Harvick – $7,300; Starting P38
- Austin Dillon – $6,200; Starting P27
Are we eating some chalk? Yes. Do we still have enough leverage and pivots? Yes. Austin Dillon and Ty Gibbs might be lower owned compared to the drivers priced around them. Gibbs has some wins on his resume on road courses in the Xfinity Series. Dillon has actually been getting better as a road course driver. We took the easy position differential with Allmendinger, Harvick, and Byron. But also have win equity with Martin Truex Jr., who has been outstanding of late. This lineup even leaves $400 on the table if you felt so inclined to somehow make a pivot to Tyler Reddick or other drivers.
FanDuel:
- Tyler Reddick – $13,000; Starting P2
- Christopher Bell – $12,500; Starting P7
- Chris Buescher – $10,000; Starting P17
- William Byron – $8,200; Starting P39
- Kevin Harvick – $6,000; Starting P38
Again, just plugging in Byron and Harvick, but also taking risks elsewhere. FanDuel devalues dominator points but still rewards the driver that wins the race. Reddick has win-equity having won this race a year ago and having three wins on road courses over the last two years. Christopher Bell is another Toyota driver who is an underrated road course driver. And to round it out Chris Buescher has shown he can win at this level, and in this car. He has upside and some very strong results on road courses.
White Flag Thoughts Before You Go
The way things have played out with qualifying, don’t hesitate to think outside the box with your lineup construction and leave money on the table. The two lineups above certainly did not. But if this is a race where the chalk prevails and the PD plays come through, then you can leave money on the table. 95+% of NASCAR DFS lineups on Sunday will use a majority of the salary. So a leverage strategy would be to leave money on the table. There are plenty of lineups to build that give us everything we want. You still have win equity. You still can fit in the road course specialists. And you can build lineups with plenty of position differential. You have to get creative to win big. Best of luck and enjoy Sunday’s Verizon 200!