After an exciting weekend at Talladega, NASCAR heads to our nation’s first state for 400 laps around The Monster Mile of Dover International Speedway. Dover is a one-mile oval. But what should give us excitement is that it doesn’t race like a short track. It features 24 degrees of banking in the turns and they’ll run the intermediate package this weekend. It’s also one of the few tracks on the schedule that isn’t asphalt. Since 1995, it’s featured a concrete surface. So we have a ton of laps and NASCAR’s better aero package. In the two NextGen races at Dover, we’ve seen at least three drivers lead 65+ laps. We should ideally be looking at two to three dominator candidates for our NASCAR DFS lineups. Here are the top drivers and values for this week’s Würth 400 preview.
Würth 400 Preview: The Top Plays
Ross Chastain (#1 Chevrolet)
It’s not often we don’t lead off with a JGR or Hendrick driver. But for the Würth 400 preview, I’ll mix it up. Ross has been great in the two NextGen races at Dover. In 2022, he started P7 and finished third with 86 laps led, 38 fastest laps, and a 125.2 driver rating. Last year, he started P14 and finished second with 98 laps led and 41 fastest laps with a 129.5 driver rating. Moreover, Dover is a shorter track, but it doesn’t race like one. Matter of fact, Ross is better on these shorter tracks that use the intermediate aero package. After all, he won Nashville and Phoenix-2 last year. I guess we shouldn’t be too surprised he opened as a +750 favorite to win on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Martin Truex Jr. (#19 Toyota)
Truex won this race last year, but it certainly wasn’t his first trip to victory lane at Dover. In fact, in five of his last seven races at Dover he’s finished first or second. 2022 was an odd year for Joe Gibbs Racing. They really struggled to figure out the NextGen car. But once they hammered out the kinks they returned to an elite status. Truex wasn’t as “dominant” as Chastain last year. However, he still led 68 laps with 33 fastest laps, and he clawed his way to the front after starting P17. MTJ is also a New Jersey native. So Dover is one of the handful of loops he considers his home track. But it’s also a sentimental track after his brother, Ryan, won last year’s Xfinity Series race before Martin won the Cup race as well.
William Byron (#24 Chevrolet)
He already has three wins on the season, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if his fourth came at Dover. His best finish at Dover is only fourth. And he’s actually done that three times in his last four races here. But he had arguably, the best car in the field last year. He led 193 laps with 57 fastest laps and a 126.8 driver rating. We haven’t seen too many comparable tracks to Dover this year aside from Phoenix. But that’s also a track Byron ran very well at in 2023. His odds opened the same as Chastain so there’s plenty to be optimistic about.
Würth 400 Preview: Wouldn’t Bet Against Them
Kyle Larson (#5 Chevrolet)
I’m willing to acknowledge that Larson’s results at Dover in the two NextGen races haven’t been great. However, there’s always speed with Larson behind the wheel. And if you look back at his results prior to the NextGen car, he’s been flat-out dominant here. He only has one career win here but from 2017-2021 he had four races at Dover where he led over 130 laps. Sure, that was at a time when Dover had two races each year. But in three of those races, Larson drove for Chip Ganassi Racing. Now he did lead 19 laps here in the NextGen car back in 2022. But we’re really hoping he rekindles the magic and has the track position to lead 100+ laps on Sunday.
Ty Gibbs (#54 Toyota)
Yes, I’m back on the Ty Gibbs bandwagon. I’m still convinced we see him take multiple trips to victory lane this year. He didn’t run Dover a ton in the Xfinity Series. But he has a pair of top fives here and this is historically a track Jr. Motorsports runs well at. So no fault to Gibbs for not getting a win here. In his Cup Series debut at this track last Spring, he started P24 and finished 13th. And we all expect bigger things from him. He looked great at Phoenix with 57 laps led despite finishing third. Then at Bristol, a short track with the intermediate aero package, he finished ninth with 137 laps led, and we liked him plenty for that race. He doesn’t have a top 10 in his last four races entering this week. I’m hoping that lowers ownership on him.
Chase Elliott (#9 Chevrolet)
It’s hard not to like the Hendrick cars this weekend. Byron is the only one who doesn’t have a win here. However, that could easily change this weekend. Chase Elliott has actually won here twice, including the first NextGen race at this track. In 13 races here he has nine finishes in the top five. Additionally, the two bad results here have been due to a wreck and engine failure. He got the monkey off his back with a win at Texas two weeks ago. He’s a little more relaxed and doesn’t have as much pressure on him currently. He’s no longer flying under the radar and his car likely rolls off the truck with a great setup.
The Sleepers and Values
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (#47 Chevrolet)
I won’t go overboard here, but Stenhouse does have two solid results here the last two years. In 2022, he started P15 and finished second. And then last year he started P9 and finished 15th. This isn’t really a track we would think caters to Stenhouse’s strengths. And truthfully, we should be mindful that the 2022 result was the first year of the NextGen car. A lot of teams were still figuring things out. Aside from last week’s top five he hasn’t been particularly fast this year. So, if you choose to take the track history with a grain of salt, more power to you.
Josh Berry (#4 Ford)
Stewart-Haas Racing is having a bit of a transition year. They’re trying to figure out what they have with their team. It’s a blend of young guys and some more experienced drivers who are trying to prove what they can do in good equipment. Berry subbed for Alex Bowman in the 48-car last year. That led to a top 10 at Dover. And don’t forget, he has a win here on his resume from the Xfinity Series. I wouldn’t say there’s much win equity this week. He did lead 25 laps and finished 12th at Bristol last month at least. However, there is still that stigma of him being a little boom-or-bust.
Corey LaJoie (#7 Chevrolet)
Similar to Stenhouse, Dover doesn’t jump off the page as a track that Corey LaJoie drives well at. However, in 2022 he started P21 and finished 18th. Then last year, he started P27 and finished 14th. Those aren’t huge DFS scores by any means, but for a driver that’ll be affordable, you’ll take a top 20 with position differential. We haven’t seen too many great finishes from LaJoie this year aside from the Daytona 500. But in this range, we shouldn’t rule out a third top 20 at this track if he starts deeper in the field.
Corey Heim (#43 Toyota)
I’ll throw in a fourth driver this week to close out the Würth 400 preview. Since I didn’t give the greatest endorsement for Stenhouse, or even LaJoie for that matter, let’s mention a debuting driver. Heim is a regular in the Craftsman Truck Series. He’s easily in play to win each week. He’s probably one of the more valuable prospects within Toyota. He steps into the 43-car this weekend for Erik Jones. Jones finished 16th and 10th the last two years at Dover, but mind you, that was with a different manufacturer. I don’t love that Heim is making his debut this weekend in the NextGen car. But there is plenty of raw talent with Heim. He’ll need to make the most of practice to get used to the car. But the equipment should be decent relative to the price tag.