NASCAR DFS: Xfinity 500 Picks

The Xfinity 500 is the second-to-last race of the season. This race will definitely provide plenty of drama. As Chase Elliott noted on Saturday, qualifying is crucial here. It’s arguably the most important qualifying session of the year for playoff drivers. Martin Truex Jr. has been underwhelming in the playoffs so far. He didn’t even look that great in practice. But he showed up when it counts. As a previous Martinsville winner, he came through in the clutch and won the pole for Sunday afternoon’s race. William Byron, on the other hand, didn’t sound pleased with his team and the setup for his car. But short-track racing, with championship implications on the line, just means so much more. Here are the top drivers and strategies as part of this week’s Xfinity 500 picks.

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Xfinity 500 Picks: The Top 10

Martin Truex Jr. (#19 Joe Gibbs Racing)
Ty Gibbs (#54 Joe Gibbs Racing)
Chase Briscoe (#14 Stewart-Haas Racing)
Denny Hamlin (#11 Joe Gibbs Racing)
Kyle Larson (#5 Hendrick Motorsports)
Bubba Wallace (#23 23XI Racing)
Christopher Bell (#20 Joe Gibbs Racing)
Kevin Harvick (#4 Stewart-Haas Racing)
Ryan Preece (#41 Stewart-Haas Racing)
Brad Keselowski (#6 RFK Racing)

If you read the Xfinity 500 Preview from earlier this week, you’ll recall that JGR loves short, flat tracks. Three of the top four drivers hail from JGR, while all four qualified in the top seven. Toyota may have even had all six drivers qualify in the top 10 if Tyler Reddick didn’t spin on his qualifying lap. But the Toyotas have speed and MTJ is a clear candidate to lead laps early. Larson’s practice speeds are a bit misleading. The first practice session had by far the better conditions. There was no rubber on the track so they had a cleaner session. Larson ran in the second session and mostly did casual laps. But he laid down some great qualifying times. I don’t want to sleep on him simply because of the practice notes. He won this race in the Spring and wants to win every race.

Which Value-Priced Xfinity 500 Picks Got A Points Movement Bump?

DraftKings

Alex Bowman – $7,500; Starting P22
Daniel Suarez – $6,900; Starting P27
Justin Haley – $5,600; Starting P24
Harrison Burton – $5,500; Starting P28
Corey LaJoie – $5,400; Starting P30

FanDuel

Tyler Reddick – $8,500; Starting P19
Alex Bowman – $7,800; Starting P22
Daniel Suarez – $6,200; Starting P27
Justin Haley – $4,200; Starting P24
Harrison Burton – $3,500; Starting P30

At a track like Martinsville, you don’t want too many drivers starting deep in the field. On long green flag runs, it’s easy to lose the lead lap. Some of these drivers start far back for a reason. They, or the equipment, aren’t that good. The drivers above offer PD but have a decent-to-great shot at staying on the lead lap. Tyler Reddick, a playoff driver, is severely underpriced on FanDuel. He’s not a value on DraftKings, but he’s a fine play on both sites. Alex Bowman has finished 12^th or better in five of his last six races here and he starts P22 on Sunday. Daniel Suarez is such an intriguing play. He’s very affordable and offers position differential. In his last two Martinsville races, he finished 17^th and 13^th but in those races, he had an average running position in the top 10.

Which Higher-Priced Drivers Got A Similar Bump?

Tyler Reddick – Starting P19 (DraftKings)
Kyle Busch – Starting P31

There aren’t too many expensive options offering position differential. Kyle Busch is the only noteworthy driver who qualified poorly. However, his car flashed some great speed in practice. The reality is, at a track like Martinsville, you don’t pay up for position differential. You want as much of a ceiling as possible in NASCAR DFS tournaments. So if spending up, those funds should be spent on drivers that can lead 100+ laps. This race has 500. That means on DraftKings, there are a maximum of 350 dominator points available. With cautions and stage breaks, we won’t get to 350 but overall, we’ll have over 300 dominator points available. You want your most expensive drivers to collect as many of those as possible. Kyle Busch is reasonably priced on both sites. Is he viable in cash games? Yes, but not exactly a lock in tournaments.

Xfinity 500 Picks

DraftKings

Martin Truex Jr. – $10,700; Starting P1
Ryan Blaney – $10,400; Starting P11
Joey Logano – $9,800; Starting P15
Daniel Suarez – $6,900; Starting P27
Austin Dillon – $6,400; Starting P26
Corey LaJoie – $5,400; Starting P30

By my own admission, this is the most excited I’ve been about a NASCAR DFS lineup in quite some time. The read, on paper, feels right. We haven’t discussed Ryan Blaney in this article yet. But earlier in the week, we mentioned his success here. He was fast in practice despite being in the worse practice session. He pairs nicely with MTJ, who should get some early dominator points after winning the pole. From here we target Joey Logano, another driver mentioned in the preview earlier this week. Overall, we fit three potential dominators. But even if just two of them lead laps, all three have win equity. Mixing in Suarez and Dillon is justified considering PD and track history. Corey LaJoie is the safe, “old reliable” value play in the build. With LaJoie you’re simply hoping he can finish top 25 at the worst.

FanDuel

Martin Truex Jr. – $12,500; Starting P1
Ryan Blaney – $12,000; Starting 11
Kyle Busch – $9,500; Starting P31
Aric Almirola – $8,000; Starting P12
Alex Bowman – $7,800; Starting P22

Again, I really love how this build comes together. We keep the same “dominator” core with MTJ and Blaney. But be mindful, FanDuel does not reward drivers for fastest laps. DraftKings does. FanDuel does not. So with 500 laps there are only 50 dominator points available on FanDuel for laps led. I’m more comfortable playing Busch on FanDuel than DraftKings. He’s more of a “value” on FanDuel and he can crush value at his price tag if he finishes top 12. With Bowman, we have a driver who has shown he can finish top 12 here. He’s had a bad year, but he likes this track. Almirola thrives on short, flat tracks. Of all the SHR cars, he offers the most PD with top 10 equity.

White Flag Thoughts Before You Go

It’s worth recapping the overall strategies when building lineups. So for DraftKings, it’s not necessary to target too many drivers starting outside the top 30. If playing a value play in that range, you mostly hope they just don’t lose you points. You’ll need as many dominator points as you can collect on DraftKings. So it’s worth mixing in two to three potential dominators. On FanDuel, you can chase a little more PD because, for a race like this, there’s a larger disparity between the two sites regarding lineup theory. But still getting those laps led and drivers that finish well are key. This is a crucial race ahead of next week’s championship in Phoenix. Best of luck, and I hope to see you all in victory lane!

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