NASCAR DFS: YellaWood 500 Picks

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Talladega Superspeedway this weekend! If this is your first time experiencing a superspeedway race, my heart goes out to you. These races are tricky, especially for DFS. All the research in the world could be meaningless for this race. Trying to avoid the big one is key to finishing well on this track. Now I still suggest you go back and read this week’s NASCAR DFS preview. Some of those drivers are still viable, but others are not. I’ll expand on that shortly. This is a unique race with heavy playoff implications. On top of that, we don’t get practice for this race. That doesn’t tend to matter too much because drivers and owners don’t want to destroy equipment before the race. Let’s dig into this weekend’s YellaWood 500 picks on DraftKings and FanDuel.

As mentioned in the article earlier this week, this track is wildly unpredictable. These drivers will race in one giant pack. And in stage two don’t be surprised if that pack turns into one single file line. Each manufacturer will likely pit together and come off into their own draft together. And avoiding the carnage is vital. Several cars likely won’t finish this race. And we could even see a different winner, possibly from a smaller team. During Saturday’s Truck Series race, Christian Eckes had the lead when he took the white flag for the final lap. But on the back stretch he tried to throw a block and ended up losing the draft and he finished 19^th. He didn’t even wreck and went from first to 19^th. We should just come to expect the unexpected.

YellaWood 500 Picks: The Top 10

1. Aric Almirola (#10 Stewart-Haas Racing)
2. Joey Logano (#22 Team Penske)
3. Chase Briscoe (#14 Stewart-Haas Racing)
4. Kyle Larson (#5 Hendrick Motorsports)
5. Brad Keselowski (#6 RFK Racing)
6. Riley Herbst (#36 Front Row Motorsports)
7. Austin Cindric (#2 Team Penske)
8. William Byron (#24 Hendrick Motorsports)
9. Bubba Wallace (#23 23XI Racing)
10. Ryan Blaney (#12 Team Penske)

To no surprise, we have a lot of Fords in the top 10. Seven, in fact. The Fords are aerodynamically at an advantage at superspeedways. That advantage is even more apparent when they actually start racing and drafting. But lineup construction tells us we can’t be too heavy on these drivers. Fastest laps will be evenly distributed throughout the field. Laps led could easily go to Almirola or Briscoe, but we also need them to finish well. If they wreck, they’re not optimal. Kyle Larson is still an easy fade from this group. He always goes backward at superspeedways, but he is a little more desperate for a win after last week’s wreck. I may even consider fading William Byron. He won last week and is already locked in for the next round.

Which Value-Priced YellaWood 500 Picks Got A Points Movement Bump?

DraftKings:

• Erik Jones – $7,800; Starting P26
• AJ Allmendinger – $6,600; Starting P31
• Corey LaJoie – $6,200; Starting P36
• Justin Haley – $6,000; Starting P30
• Carson Hocevar – $5,900; Starting P38
• Ty Dillon – $5,000; Starting P33

FanDuel:

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – $8,500; Starting P35
• Erik Jones – $8,200; Starting P26
• Daniel Suarez – $5,500; Starting P28
• Carson Hocevar – $4,800; Starting P38
• Corey LaJoie – $4,200; Starting P36
• Ty Dillon – $3,500; Starting P33

Truthfully, I didn’t even list all the value plays starting deep in the field. You can comfortably make Cash game lineups on either site with these value plays. For Cash games on superspeedways, expect significant rostership for each of these drivers. “Stacking the back” is a tried-and-true strategy for 50/50’s and Double Up’s. These drivers gain points as they move up and they don’t kill you if a couple wreck. They provide the safest floor on the slate. If you do stack the back in your Cash lineups, you have to be comfortable leaving a lot of salary on the table. Even in your GPP lineups, you don’t need to spend every dollar of your budget. It’s a great way to actually make your lineup unique.

Which Higher-Priced Drivers Got A Similar Bump? 

• Chris Buescher – Starting P24
• Chase Elliott – Starting P23
• Ross Chastain – Starting P32
• Kyle Busch – Starting P25
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – Starting P35 (DraftKings)

Chastain and Stenhouse are perfectly fine in Cash games because they start outside the top 30. Buescher, Elliott, and Busch don’t need to be forced into Cash games, but they’re still fine for this type of DFS contest. Busch won this race in the Spring. Buescher is coming off a win at Daytona back in August. Stenhouse won the Daytona 500 to kick off the year. And Chastain won at Talladega in 2022. All five of these drivers will carry significant ownership on both sites. However, perhaps these are good drivers to potentially fade in favor of leverage.

YellaWood 500 Picks

DraftKings

• Ryan Blaney – $10,200; Starting P10
• Daniel Suarez – $8,100; Starting P28
• Erik Jones – $7,800; Starting P26
• Corey LaJoie – $6,200; Starting P36
• Ty Dillon – $5,000; Starting P33
• BJ McLeod – $4,800; Starting P37

This lineup leaves $7,900 on the table. There is plenty of room to make pivots if you so choose. We don’t completely load up on Cash game plays starting outside the top 30. The most popular driver we’re getting exposure to is Corey LaJoie. He’s great in these races and finds his way to the front. But we also have some pivots starting in the 20’s and still get a driver that could get out front and win with Ryan Blaney. Blaney has won here before and the Fords should run well here together. If you wanted to swing a full blown Ford stack you could get away with it easily. This is a Tournament lineup I’d be comfortable entering on Sunday.

FanDuel

• Chris Buescher – $13,000; Starting P24
• Bubbaa Wallace – $10,500; Starting P9
• Daniel Suarez – $5,500; Starting P28
• Carson Hocevar – $4,800; Starting P38
• Ty Dillon – $3,500; Starting P33

This build leaves $12,700 in salary. Like I said, you can easily make pivots. But we have plenty of position differential that we’re targeting. Moreover, we have Bubba Wallace. Wallace somehow managers to find his way to the front in every superspeedway race. However, on FanDuel, laps led don’t matter nearly as much as they do on DraftKings. Additionally, if you’d like to pivot off Wallace for another PD option with win equity, you could absolutely do that. Drivers to pivot to could be Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain, or Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Or perhaps you pivot to Denny Hamlin. Hamlin tends to drop to the rear early in these races (out of strategy), but makes a charge late. You have plenty of options. Both of these lineups are just meant to give you an idea of how to approach construction for this type of race.

White Flag Thoughts Before You Go

This is the final superspeedway race of the 2023 season. It’s not my favorite racing style for DFS. I scale my DFS exposure way back for Daytona, Talladega, and now Atlanta (to an extent). The racing is phenomenal in person if you ever have a chance to go see it live. The television product doesn’t quite provide enough justice to how fast these cars are truly going. But with the speed, and how close these cars will be together, expect chaos later on in this race. It could be messy since so many playoff drivers need a win. But we’re running low on NASCAR races for the 2023 campaign so enjoy this race while mixing in some NFL as well. Best of luck! I hope to see one of you take the checkered flag!