I am here to supplement the great work that Bradlee Kilgore is doing providing his insight on NBA props. As he has mentioned in his articles, coming up with NBA props in advance can be a bit tricky. Most sportsbooks wait as long as possible to post props, so it can be a bit of a guessing game. Here are some spots I like with my estimates on what numbers the sportsbooks will post.
NBA Player Props for January 26
Darius Garland OVER 2.5 Three-Pointers Made, OVER 23.5 Points
Darius Garland has often been the Robin to Donovan Mitchell’s Batman this season. Garland has posted solid numbers in his fourth NBA season. He averages 21.7 points and 2.4 three-pointers per game. However, when Mitchell is off the floor, Garland is a much more aggressive offensive player. When Garland plays without Mitchell, he averages 25.3 points and 2.9 threes per contest. Thursday night will be an excellent time for Garland to assert himself against the Houston Rockets.
Houston allows the most made threes in the NBA at 14.4 per game. Most of that damage comes from above the break, where the Rockets give up 11 three-pointers per game. Over 90 percent of Garland’s threes come from above the break, and he ranks 27th in the NBA in such makes. Mitchell, coincidentally, ranks third, so Garland should have plenty of room to operate without Mitchell dominating touches. In addition, it is also Garland’s birthday! What more do you need?
I suspect that the books will list Garland’s points prop at anywhere from 23.5-24.5 points, and I would be comfortable playing him at either number. I do prefer the threes if I had to choose, though. Garland has made at least three shots from long range on 14 occasions this season, while only scoring 25 on eight occasions. All eight have come at home, and this game will be played in Houston. I am guessing that the oddsmakers will make you pay a hefty fee for Garland to make more than 2.5 three-pointers, but I think it is a fairly safe bet.
Julius Randle OVER 11.5 Rebounds, OVER 3.5 Assists, OVER 15.5 Rebounds Plus Assists
Julius Randle has been outstanding in recent weeks and is one of the frontrunners to be named Player of the Month for January. In January, Randle is averaging 26.3 points, 14.5 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game. He has consistently beaten his player props throughout the month, particularly in the last nine games. During that stretch, he has gone over all three of these numbers in eight of the nine. So it is a matter of which prop you prefer for Randle.
While 11.5 rebounds is a very high number, Randle has cleared it with relative ease in this span. He has pulled down at least 15 boards in seven of his last nine games. Randle had 13 in one game and nine in the other. Boston ranks in the middle of the pack in rebounding and has given up healthy rebounding totals to opposing centers in recent games. Over their last six games, they have allowed at least 11 rebounds to an opposing center five times, including four instances of at least 12 rebounds. Randle has also posted at least four assists in eight of his last nine games. However, he has landed on exactly four in four of these games, so I think this is the trickier of the two props. Boston also allows the second-fewest assists per game in the league.
Randle has also enjoyed some recent success versus Boston’s Al Horford. Over their last six head-to-head matchups, Randle has at least a dozen rebounds in four of them and at least five assists in five of them. Randle averages 17.2 rebounds plus assists during these games. I am partial to Randle’s rebounding prop, but as always, you should always try to shop for the best price. These small edges generally add up over time to help you to become a profitable prop bettor.
Nic Claxton OVER 2.5 Blocked Shots
Nic Claxton had two blocks against the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday night. That sounds like a good night at the office for most big men. But for Claxton, it was the first time in 13 games that he failed to record at least three blocked shots. I fully expect him to start another streak on Thursday when the Brooklyn Nets host the Detroit Pistons. Detroit allows 5.8 blocks per game as a team. That is the third-highest number in the NBA. The Pistons have allowed a total of 20 blocks over their past three games, including eight in their game in Paris against the Chicago Bulls.
Blocked shot props are often tricky because of the price. I have yet to see any lines for Claxton to get at least three blocks on Thursday. However, based on his recent form, I would imagine it to be pretty expensive. If that is the case, you can find something to pair this prop with to reduce the risk. The Nets are a pretty heavy favorite in this game. Taking the Nets to win should lighten the load on the amount you would have to risk to make Claxton’s blocks prop an attractive play.