The NFC West is a division loaded with talent. However, two teams seem poised for a playoff push while the other two are more likely to land top-10 draft picks. Regardless of each own’s 2023 outlook, there are fantasy football assets to consider from every squad. While some are more obvious than others, a bold prediction here and there can make even the riskiest of players a bit more enticing.
I am continuing to highlight one fantasy football related bold prediction from each team, division by division, until the start of the 2023 NFL season. These predictions will hopefully get the gears in your head turning. Most are positive while others may be negative. The likeliness that every single one of these predictions hits is certainly not 100%. However, they should generate some buzz or cause you to think twice about each player. Just be confident in your feelings when you’re on the clock.
Be sure to check out bold predictions from the other divisions all summer long on Fantrax as well as follow me on Twitter @Colin_McT for plenty more fantasy football content.
NFC West Bold Predictions for 2023 Fantasy Football
Arizona Cardinals
McTamany’s Bold Prediction: James Conner logs 300 or more total touches
Only eight players touched the ball 300 or more times in 2022. Over the last five seasons, an average of six players per year accomplish this sort of workload. James Conner has never been one of those players. My bold prediction has him in the mix to do it in 2023.
Conner’s career-high touch total is 270 in 2018 with the Pittsburgh Steelers. With the Arizona Cardinals, Conner’s highest number of touches in 239 in 2021. As Conner enters his seventh NFL season, it is likely his last in Arizona. The team takes on a $3-million dead cap hit while saving $5.49 million next season if Conner is traded or released. That said, I expect a heavy workload from him out of the backfield. With said volume, Conner will have the fortune of running behind an offensive line that added Will Hernandez and Kelvin Beachum in free agency as well as Paris Johnson Jr. with the sixth pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Behind Conner on the depth chart are Keaontay Ingram, Corey Clement, and Ty’Son Williams. The biggest threat to Conner’s carries is quarterback Kyler Murray. He’s working his way back from a December 2022 ACL tear. In Murray’s place, long-time veteran, Colt McCoy, is expected to start at quarterback. They should lean heavily on the run.
Conner has an average of 13.75 carries and 2.96 receptions per game as a Cardinal. That’s 16.71 touches per game which, over a 17-game span, projects to 284 touches. In a fully healthy season, Conner should have above-average numbers simply because Arizona needs him to. As a result, I think Conner can be a volume-based RB1 this fantasy football season.
Los Angeles Rams
McTamany’s Bold Prediction: Puka Nacua ranks inside the top five in total yards among rookie wide receivers
As the 20th wide receiver off the board in the 2023 NFL Draft, this certainly qualifies as a bold prediction. Puka Nacua, a wide receiver out of BYU, was the last player selected in the fifth round. While I often take draft capital into consideration for rookies, I think Nacua finds himself in one of the best situations in his first season. In a class full of generally undersized wide receivers, Puka Nacua also stands out at 6’1″ and 21o pounds.
We all know Cooper Kupp. He is the Los Angeles Rams’ top wide receiver and is going to dominate the target share. Beyond Kupp on the depth chart are Ben Skowronek, Demarcus Robinson, and deep threats Van Jefferson and Tutu Atwell. Compared to other rookie wide receivers, Nacua has a legitimate chance to carve out a role in his first professional season with lesser-quality competition.
Notice that my bold prediction says total yards. That’s factoring in Nacua’s versatility with a few touches in the form of carries. In two seasons at BYU, Nacua averaged 9.2 yards per carry on 39 total attempts, scoring five touchdowns as a senior. A few touches out of the backfield is something Rams wide receiver, Robert Woods, would mix into Los Angeles’ game plan during his tenure.
I don’t expect Nacua to get drafted in most 2023 fantasy football leagues. This bold prediction’s purpose is for fantasy managers to remember the name as Nacua could present himself as a key waiver wire add. The Los Angeles Rams are probably going to be playing from behind in most games this season. With a pass-heavy approach, and a healthy Matthew Stafford at quarterback, Puka Nacua could exceed expectations as a rookie.
San Francisco 49ers
McTamany’s Bold Prediction: George Kittle finishes outside the top-12 tight ends
For the sake of this bold prediction, I’m operating with the expectation that Brock Purdy will start at quarterback in Week 1. With Purdy under center, George Kittle’s target share suffered last season. Both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk drew more looks from Purdy. Additionally, Kittle has to battle Christian McCaffrey for targets.
In the final five games of the 2022 regular season, with Purdy starting, Kittle scored the most points (93.3) amongst all tight ends. However, a whopping seven touchdowns during that stretch (in just four games!) accounted for 45% of those points. It’s worth noting that Deebo Samuel was absent for three of those games. That sort of scoring success is due for regression, especially over a full season.
In the NFL playoffs, with Deebo back, Kittle caught just 10 total passes for an average of 54.6 yards per game and no touchdowns. He logged 37 or fewer receiving yards in two of those three games.
Making the bold prediction that George Kittle finishes outside of TE1 territory seems jarring at first. However, looking at the last three fantasy football seasons, the TE13, on a points-per-game basis averaged 9.9, 10.3, and 9.6 points respectively from 2020-2022. Those numbers seem far more likely for Kittle in 2023 than the 12.0 or so points per game needed to remain in the top-five conversation.
There historically isn’t a large variance in average points from a mid-range TE1 and high-end TE2. Odds are he’s still a top guy because the tight end position is slim pickings, but the point here is that George Kittle is not worth the high draft pick required to get him on your team. While he’s still an asset to the 49ers, there is too much competition for targets to rely on him consistently this fantasy football season.
Seattle Seahawks
McTamany’s Bold Prediction: Zach Charbonnet outscores Kenneth Walker
It’s hard to imagine Walker or Charbonnet having a true edge over the other given that they are both second-round NFL draft picks. However, Charbonnet, ahead of his rookie season, is going multiple rounds after Walker in fantasy football drafts. My bold prediction should encourage fantasy managers interested in getting a piece of this backfield to wait and grab Charbonnet at cost.
Six of Kenneth Walker’s nine touchdowns as a rookie were in the fourth quarter of games over a five-week span. The Seahawks had a 4-1 record with Walker putting them over the top in most of those contests. He led all rookie running backs in rushing yards last season (1,050) even with a two-game absence.
And the Seahawks still drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second round.
The reason for my bold prediction comes down to Charbonnet’s role in the passing game. He averaged over 30 receptions per season in two years at UCLA with an average of over eight yards per catch in each season. Walker, on the other hand, caught just 19 passes in college, 13 at Michigan State, then went on to catch 27 as a rookie in Seattle. Though the uptick in usage is nice, Walker’s 0.85 yards per route run from last season is less than ideal.
I could see Walker and Charbonnet alternating drives in 2023 with the rookie seeing his fair share of third-down work. Assuming Charbonnet commands that role, his pass-catching could give him a slight edge over Walker in PPR leagues. The bottom line is that the Seahawks didn’t really need Zach Charbonnet, but grabbed him with a second-round pick anyway. That’s hard to ignore given head coach Pete Carroll’s tendency to establish the run.
Both Walker and Charbonnet are values right now. I’m happy to have either based on where they’re available in fantasy drafts. Based on the other players available relative to each own’s Average Draft Position, I’m more inclined to wait and draft Charbonnet for the 2023 fantasy football season.
For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
I will be hosting a month of best ball leagues this summer; sign up to @Fantrax today and get ready for the best fantasy football season ever! #fantrax #fantasyfootball https://t.co/YtLEhMoo5J pic.twitter.com/ffSt00FY9R
— Lisa Ann (@thereallisaann) May 6, 2023