NFL free agency is underway and has brought us some exciting signings and a few head-scratchers. With this year’s salary cap dropping to $182.5 million, this is not a great time for a free agent seeking big money or a long-term deal. We take a look into the fantasy impact of players newly acquired, as well as re-signed and franchise-tagged players.
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NFL Free Agency Update
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Washington Football Team
One year, $10 million
So Washington, you don’t have a good option at starting quarterback, few trade pieces, and little hope to draft an exciting prospect to be your immediate signal caller through the draft; what does one do? Simple, bring in FitzMagic and add to his already extensive jersey collection. This deal marks the eighth team for the 16-year veteran, and there’s lots to like about this landing spot.
In these past few seasons, he has shown us that he can be a difference-maker when behind center. His ability to stretch the field and make big plays provides an upgrade to the team’s No.1 receiver Terry McLaurin and newly acquired wideout Curtis Samuel. With his available weapons, Fitzpatrick profiles as a mid QB2 option with weekly upside. Someone to keep handy to plug into juicy matchups.
Andy Dalton, QB, Chicago Bears
One year, $10 million
Bears fans are welcome to skip this section. With hopes of landing Deshaun Watson, and then potentially Russell Wilson, only to settle for Andy Dalton, we are all feeling the pain. With very little capital to draft an immediate impact player behind center, Dalton will have to do until next season.
In his few starts with Dallas, he was able to show that he can support viable fantasy wide receivers, and keep games competitive. With Chicago’s elite defense and a focus on running the ball, don’t expect Dalton to have to do too much. Come draft day, stay away.
Kenyan Drake, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Two years, $11 million
It’s rare for a player to sign with a team, and immediately destroy their own fantasy value, and that of their teammate’s. For Dynasty owners of Kenyan Drake or Josh Jacobs, there is no feeling good about this signing. Having spent a first-round pick on Jacobs and utilizing him as the lead back, they bring in a player like Drake on an expensive deal.
With the decline in the Salary Cap, and Jacobs still on his rookie deal, this move by the Raiders is a fantasy killer. In 2020 Jacobs had already lost out on third-down passing plays to other backs. With proven passing running backs in Jalen Richard and Theo Riddick, this doesn’t figure to change for the upcoming season. Looking at Drake’s substantial contract, he was clearly acquired to have a significant role in the offense. However, anticipate Drake to still be the primary running option.
With 60% of their 2020 starting offensive-line gone in free agency, it’s difficult to value Jacobs as anything higher than a late-round RB2. This pushes Drake in the late RB3 category, with both players having very little upside opportunity. Unless you can snag one of these two in the later rounds, it’s best to just let another league mate draft them and witness their disappointment week over week.
Kenny Golladay, WR, New York Giants
Four years, $72 million
It was great to see Kenny Golladay lock down a long-term deal despite the decreased cap, but this landing spot just isn’t ideal from a fantasy perspective. An obvious downgrade in quarterback talent now with Daniel Jones, there is just too much competition for targets in an offense ranked at the bottom in 2020 for yards per play and receiving touchdowns.
Golladay is undoubtedly a supreme football talent, coming in at WR21 in points per game since 2016. The big concern is his play-style meshing with his new quarterback. Not being a big separation player, Golladay’s edge comes with down-the-field contested catches. This required great accuracy, which he doesn’t figure to get from Jones who finished 2020 in the bottom five in completion percentage. Not to mention averaging an embarrassingly low 210 yards per game.
With Barkley returning from an injury-plagued season, expect the offense to run through him. Usually selected in the Top 10-12 wide receivers in previous fantasy drafts, we drop him just outside of our Top 15 at the position, putting him in the WR2 discussion.
Corey Davis, WR, New York Jets
Three years, $37.5 million
With the Jets looking to fill a huge need at the wide receiver position, Davis should slide in as the clear No.1 option in this offense. Assuming he could bring over the momentum he built up last season with the Titans, Davis is in line for a big workload. With a team clearly on the rebuild, Davis doesn’t come with the huge fantasy upside you’d get from top receiving options on other teams. With last season’s top receiver Jamison Crowder finishing 2020 in the bottom two for total yards for a team-leading pass catcher, Davis provides a safe option in later rounds of drafts, projecting in the late WR3, early WR4 range.
Curtis Samuel, WR, Washington Football Team
Three years, $34.5 million
Although this is a nice depth piece to a nice rebuilding offense, this just seems a bit expensive for a player of Samuel’s caliber. Reunited with his former head coach, it’s unsure just how Ron Rivera will utilize the fifth-year pro. It wasn’t until Rivera departed from Carolina that Samuel was utilized to his full potential. As a tricky, all-over-the-field player last season, count on Samuel to deliver WR3 production.
Will Fuller, WR, Miami Dolphins
One year, $10 million
Here is another great example of a talented playmaker landing in a less-than-ideal spot. Going from Deshaun Watson to Tua Tagovailoa, obviously, there’s a wide talent gap here. Finishing last season in the bottom-6 among quarterbacks in completion percentage, avg. yards per attempt, and yards per game, Tua heavily struggled in his first season after being selected fifth overall.
Come draft day, it would be wise to remember the injury history that has prevented him from surpassing more than 11 games in a season, and also the impending suspension that will see him sit out opening weekend. Due to his exceptional deep-ball ability, and being the projected top receiver in Miami, Fuller will rank among the WR3 crowd, with potential for some big week-winning performances.
Marvin Jones Jr., WR Jacksonville Jaguars
Two years, $14.5 million
After a rough start to the 2020 season, seeing just 14 receptions in the first six games, Jones stepped up as the top passing option with Kenny Golladay injured; finishing just shy of 1000 yards and adding nine touchdowns. He will certainly fight for targets in Jacksonville’s rebuilt offense but should profile as a nice veteran presence on the field for whomever the Jags select as QB with the first overall selection (Lawrence is all but a lock at this point). Joining the No. 3 lowest-scoring offense from 2020, consider tossing a late-round pick on Jones, and hope he becomes a favorite target.
Sammy Watkins, WR, Baltimore Ravens
One year, $6 million
The Ravens have made a move to address their immediate need at the wide receiver position. After failing to hit JuJu Smith-Schuster with an offer worthy of pulling him out of Pittsburgh, they get a player who provides a clear upgrade for Lamar Jackson’s offense.
In his three seasons with the Chiefs, Watkins has failed to stay healthy, missing seven games in 2020. Despite the less crowded offense compared to KC, the seven-year pro joins a Ravens offense that produced a league-low 406 passing attempts in 2020. Watkins profiles as a WR4 with tons of injury and consistency concerns.
A.J. Green, WR, Arizona Cardinals
One year, $8.5 million
There is little to be excited about here. Despite staying healthy for a full 16-game season in 2020, Green was a fantasy football non-factor. The seven-time Pro Bowler should feature as the fourth passing option in this offense, making him someone to stay away from on draft day.
Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots
Four years, $50 million and three years, $37.5 million respectively
I don’t particularly like to use the word hate…. but ya I hate this. Perhaps Belichick is trying to revive the TE duo of Gronk and Hernandez from yesterday, but the dual signing hurts both player’s fantasy ceiling. With the awful passing attack of Cam Newton back for another season, consider both as an early TE2 option with no weekly consistency or upside. There are other options out there, so don’t get caught with name recognition.
Jared Cook, TE, Los Angeles Chargers
One year, $6 million
Looking for six unpredictable touchdowns with minimal yards and receptions? Cook is your guy! If you’re looking for any fantasy success, then best to stay away from Cook come draft day. With his best days behind him, and having a young QB who loves to stretch the field, don’t expect much fantasy production from the 33-year-old veteran.
I’m Not Going Anywhere!
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Franchise Tag, Expected $37.7 million
Deal: Four years, $160 million
Relief! Jerry Jones and co. finally locked in Dak as their long-term quarterback. Going down for the season last year won’t diminish his fantasy value in 2021, especially considering his production as a runner outside the pocket. Dak raises the fantasy value of everyone with a star on their helmet. Consider Dak a solid top six QB with the potential to find himself in the top three at the position.
Cam Newton, QB, New England Patriots
One year, $5.1 million
On paper, this deal is a huge win for the Patriots’ front office. It’s reasonable to assume that the team will continue to look for a long-term solution at the quarterback position in the draft or free agency. In the meantime, they have secured a player who at the very least will outperform his incredibly inexpensive deal. Being the current clear-cut starter, we project Cam as a late QB2 with some big game upside based on his running stats and abilities to run a few into the endzone. Just be cautious, as this is the same player who went to the Super Bowl in 2016, and in 2020 threw a measly eight passing touchdowns.
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
Four years, $48 million
Although this deal was an interesting one to see, we’re actually ok with it. After the emergence of rookie RB A.J. Dillon in the playoffs, there was a real expectation that Green Bay would let Jones walk and shift focus to their young talent. Not the case as they inked this top 10 talent to a very team-friendly deal. Though Dillion may take over on passing-down plays, Jones will still feature as the workhorse and goal-line star, finishing 2020 in the top 12 in red zone rushing attempts and TDs.
This deal is a boost to the entire Packers offense, who are gearing up for another Super Bowl run and looking to keep many key pieces in place. Ranking Jones as a safe top 12 RB heading into the season, but in this high-scoring offense, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his name amongst the top 6 in fantasy.
Chris Carson, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Two years, 10.425 million
After being released by the team, the Seahawks re-signed Carson to keep him as their lead back. The former seventh-round pick had previously established himself as a workhorse player. However, his gritty and tough running style has caused him to miss time due to injuries over his career, only starting 12 games in 2020.
Expecting this season to once again showcase one of the league’s higher scoring offenses, the only thing stopping Carson from entering the RB1 conversation is his ability to stay healthy and in the lineup. Although one must expect the former first-round Rashaad Penny to make waves at some point (right?), Carson is in the RB2 category with ample opportunity for those multi-touchdown games.
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Franchise Tag, Expected $16.5 million
With the Buccs ramping up for another trip to the postseason, getting hit with the franchise tag makes a lot of sense for all parties. Having missed four games last season due to injury, Godwin battled for targets in one of the league’s deeper wide receiver rooms.
Despite being one of many passing options for Brady, Godwin rarely disappointed your fantasy team. Putting up consistent fantasy numbers with a high ceiling is exactly what you want from a top 12 WR heading into this season. Looking to secure a long-term deal, expect another big season from No.14.
Allen Robinson, WR, Chicago Bears
Franchise Tag, Expected $18 million
There are few NFL players more deserving of a long-term deal than Robinson. In his last two seasons with Chicago, Robinson averaged 100 receptions and 1200 yards per season. Watch some of his amazing catches from last year and you will be sold. He also finished No.3 in Red Zone targets.
Having put up big numbers despite the lack of a skilled quarterback, having Andy Dalton throw him the ball is a non-difference maker. As a projected low-end WR1, anticipate another big fantasy season.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
One year, $8 million
The Steelers are huge winners this offseason with this signing. Getting a player of Smith-Schusters abilities for such a low cap hit is a slam-dunk. I mean, JuJu was a disappointment last season, finishing outside the WR 3 range in yards and yards per game; shocking for a player with 128 total targets. Fantasy owners were saved by his high touchdown rate, which saw him in the top 10 at the position. Unless the Steelers make a splash at the draft or free agency, expect this to once again be a heavy passing offense.
The problem here is that JuJu isn’t the No.1 passing option on this team. Sliding in between Dionte Johnson and Chase Claypool, he will need to establish himself early to earn his current ADP of 4.05. Based on volume, consider the TikTok star a WR3 but consistency concerns are once again in play.
Rob Gronkowski, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
One year, $10 million
With Tom Brady still in Tampa, then of course Gronk wasn’t going anywhere. This deal provides his BFF with his favorite Red Zone target for yet another season, finishing at No.4 among TEs in 2020. With little weekly consistency, consider Gronk a mid-to-late TE2.
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