With only a couple weeks until the 2024 NFL Season, it doesn’t matter whether you still have a draft or two awaiting, or if your roster is already set. Draft boards can still shift, and mistakes can be traded while their value is still pristine. Let’s take a dive into three of 2024’s Most Overrated Players in Fantasy Football.
2024 Veterans Heading For Fantasy Football Decline
Saquon Barkley
Philadephia Eagles, RB6 consensus vs. My RB16
Barkley is highly sought after for a reason. You’re not crazy if you seek him out as well. However, this will be his 7th year in the league, and in four of his six prior seasons, he’s been in the top ten in fantasy points per game for running backs. He’s been the unquestioned workhorse back every year of his career, with the thought of a running back by committee never becoming a reality in his time in New York. Furthermore, he’s going to the Philadelphia Eagles, who will likely challenge to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this year. That means he’ll have a better game script to run the ball than he did in New York when the Giants were almost never leading a game in the second half.
The reason I expect Barkley to start his decline this year is because I believe with an ADP of RB6, there is hope that Barkley transitions to the Eagles, much like Christian McCaffrey transitioned to the 49ers, and I don’t believe that’s possible. First, the Eagles go as Jalen Hurts goes. They have a downfield offense that stars AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. Jalen Hurts is also dynamic outside of the pocket, which he uses as a tool primarily to give his receivers more time for separation (rather than tuck and run). When the Eagles do make it in the red zone (and inside the ten), they have the famed “tush push” play that results in Jalen Hurts scoring…not the running back. Last year, Barkley was 9th overall in red zone touches. A stat that is sure to drop for him going forward.
Further, Saquon’s ability to make a difference out of the backfield has been tantamount to his ability to return value to fantasy owners whether the Giants were able to compete or not. Barkley was 5th in the league for running back target share at ~15%. But guess what…the Eagles don’t throw to their running back at nearly the same rate the Giants have. In 2022 the Eagles were dead last in running back targets, with Gainwell leading the team with 29. Barkley had 76 that year. Last year, the Eagles acquired D’Andre Swift and he led the team with 49. That increase shows that Barkley lovers can have optimism that the Eagles may adjust to their personnel, but Barkley had 60 last year (and missed three games).
Lastly, the Eagles paid $37M over three years to secure Barkley’s rights. There are a couple of ways to look at that. Option A is that they’ll run him into the ground to get all the value they can out of him for three years and let him walk. Option B is that they want to value their investment and want to have Barkley as healthy as possible over the life of his contract because the trade market for an aging running back is relatively small. I think Option B is most likely, which means that while I think you can still expect Barkley to be a workhorse back, the likelihood that he takes multiple series per game off is more likely to keep him fresh. Either that or you’ll see Kenneth Gainwell/Will Shipley take a few early-down carries in order to utilize Barkley’s elite reception skills for third-down optionality. In either scenario, he won’t have the role he had in New York. Barkley will have to fall to me in drafts. I won’t be reaching to get him.
Taysom Hill
New Orleans Saints, TE16 consensus vs. My TE8
Don’t let my ranking fool you. I’ll be revising that ranking as soon as Fantrax does their next rankings refresh. To be honest, prior to the start of preseason, I had high hopes for how Hill would be used. I thought he’d be more than a gadget player. More 2023 Travis Hunter (college: Colorado) than a 2023 Cordarelle Patterson. My thesis was that he’s been paid, and he hasn’t been waived, so he’d be used in the most productive and efficient spots for him (red zone quarterback, running back, tight end, etc.). The reality is, that he’s been paid, and he hasn’t been waived, so the Saints are going to run him into the ground to get their money’s worth. Fair enough. He’s been lining up at FULLBACK in the preseason. They didn’t even wait until the regular season to give him those hits. PRESEASON FULLBACK. At 34 years old, I have less confidence that this is the start of Hill’s most productive fantasy years, but rather that this is the start of his least. I think I was wrong. Time to adjust accordingly.
Kirk Cousins
Atlanta Falcons, QB17 consensus vs. My QB17
It’s been a wild ride between Kirk Cousins and my takes. As a Commanders fan, I was always on the RG3 side between RG3 and Kirk Cousins in 2013 and on. At least until he became undeniable. Then he kept getting franchise tag after franchise tag until I couldn’t understand why they wouldn’t just pay the man to take control of their cap situation, or just let him walk. Now, 23,000 passing yards later, Kirk Cousins is still a top-20 quarterback at age 36.
But let’s be clear: he’s on the backside of his career, not the incline. He’s coming off of his first season-ending injury, in an Achilles tear. That was a career-ending injury just a few decades ago, but now it’s a year and change before you’re back to yourself. Let’s assume he’s back to himself. This is the worst supporting cast of wide receivers that Kirk Cousins has ever had. Drake London is the 3rd year WR who has yet to have a 1,000-yard season but is considered to be the unquestioned WR1. Kyle Pitts is the highly touted TE out of Florida who has all the tools to be elite, but only averages ~700 receiving yards and ~2 TDs per season in his career. The Falcons’ best weapon is Bijon Robinson out of the backfield, and I imagine he’ll garner the biggest target share on the team, to be honest. The cherry on top of all this: in Cousins’ first season, the Falcons have already drafted his replacement (Penix Jr.). I’m not saying this is it for Kirk Cousins, but it looks like the start of the end. But who knows?… I’ve been wrong about Cousins his entire career.
Got a beef with Bradlee’s 2024 Veterans Heading For Fantasy Decline? Let him hear about it in the comments below!