There is no denying that the AFC is the more stacked of the two NFL conferences. Especially over the last few weeks of the offseason, almost every team in the AFC got better. Unfortunately, only seven can make the playoffs. That just means we’re in for a spectacular battle for those highly-coveted playoff spots. There has been a lot of movin’ and shakin’ with trades and free agent signings that you may need some reminding of as the dust from this booming offseason starts to settle.
Below, I look at each AFC team to briefly discuss the plethora of offseason moves specifically pertaining to the recent free agency frenzy. It can be hard to keep up with every single transaction. I get it. Let this be your guide to staying on top of all of the notable madness so you’re that much more prepared for the fantasy football season. As the NFL Draft quickly approaches, and more signings and trades are sure to take place, be sure to keep tabs on this article as I will update it as the news rolls on. Be sure to keep up with the NFC offseason impact on fantasy football, as well.
Each AFC Team’s Offseason Impact on 2022 Fantasy Football
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens will likely be in the playoff mix as long as Lamar Jackson stays healthy. So far this offseason, there isn’t much to report from Baltimore as far as acquiring offensive players. However, on the defensive side of the ball, the team will improve with the acquisition of safety, Marcus Williams. They also added nose tackle, Michael Pierce, up front to wreak havoc on opposing offensive lines. It’s not yet final, but linebacker, Bobby Wagner, is also interested in joining the team.
Prior to an injury-riddled 2021 season, the Baltimore Raven defense/special teams had been a top-five unit in fantasy football each year since 2017. They will look to get back to that level of play in 2022 and will be a popular D/ST play on a week-to-week basis.
The Ravens own the 14th-overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. If they don’t sign a free agent wide receiver before then, look for them to use that pick on an additional pass catcher at the end of April. Adding one more talented receiver to Lamar’s already established arsenal of Hollywood Brown, Rashod Bateman, and Mark Andrews is a show of good faith for the quarterback in a contract year.
Buffalo Bills
Even though the Bills’ offensive coordinator, Brain Daboll, is moving on to coach the New York Giants, I still have Josh Allen as my QB1 for the 2022 fantasy football season. His ability to extend plays with his legs, as well as churn out yards on designed runs, separates him from all others. Oh yeah, and he’s got a cannon for an arm.
On that same note, Josh Allen is still the best ball carrier on this offense. Yeah, you read that right. Especially for fantasy football purposes, Devin Singletary remains the only running back in Buffalo worth drafting. The team is adding Duke Johnson into the mix of Singletary and Zach Moss. They even had a verbal agreement with J.D. McKissic before he decided to return to Washington. This will continue to be an imbalanced committee with Singletary playing the majority of snaps on his way to an RB2 fantasy football finish.
As for the pass catchers, out with Cole Beasley and in with Jamison Crowder. While the Bills are giving Isaiah McKenzie a much-deserved extension, adding a slot specialist, like Crowder, doesn’t bode well for McKenzie’s fantasy relevance. Gabriel Davis should finally see a boost in snaps, and therefore targets and overall production. His competition from last season, Emmanuel Sanders, is still a free agent, over the hill, and probably won’t be back at this point. Davis will be a big home run hitter who racks up a ton of fantasy points all of the sudden downfield.
Cincinnati Bengals
We should all be aware by now that the Cincinnati Bengals are loaded on offense. Joe Burrow on any given play has Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon to get the ball to. What you may not know is that the Bengals also entered the 2022 offseason with the fifth-most cap space, as well.
That being said, the Cincy front office did Burrow and the Bengals a favor, as well as the fantasy football community, and spent big on bulking up the offensive line. Joe Burrow is coming off a 2021 season where he was sacked 70 times. That’s not only the most sacks for any quarterback last season but the third-most sacks in a season ever. And yet, he still managed to throw for over 4,600 yards and 34 touchdowns during the regular season.
The team is adding two-time Super Bowl Champion center, Ted Karras, from the Patriots, Super Bowl Champion guard, Alex Cappa, from the Buccaneers, and highly-coveted offensive tackle, La’el Collins, from the Cowboys. That’s some pretty damn good protection for Burrow.
When you protect your quarterback, good things happen. Not only does Burrow’s fantasy value get a boost, but Chase, Higgins, and Mixon, at least, will all be highly coveted and gone in the first three rounds of PPR redraft leagues. Additionally, Hayden Hurst is replacing C.J. Uzomah at tight end and should have weekly streamer potential.
Cleveland Browns
In a shocking turn of events, quarterback, Deshaun Watson, waived his no-trade clause and agreed to a trade to the Browns this offseason. If Watson takes the field in Week 1, it will be approximately 21 months since he will have last played. There is still a concern he gets suspended for his off-the-field actions. That means Baker Mayfield, if he sticks around, or Jacoby Brissett could get things going to start the season, at least.
Luckily, for whoever is under center, they will have two running backs in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to help move the ball. Both Chubb (16.0) and Hunt (13.8) were in the top-21 of fantasy running backs on a points-per-game basis. In a more efficient offense, both running backs should score similarly in the 2022 fantasy football season.
The offseason acquisition of Watson raises newly acquired receiver, Amari Cooper’s, fantasy ceiling far more than Baker Mayfield could have. Additionally, Jarvis Landry is no longer with the team so Cooper should see a healthy target share to put him in the WR1 conversation. Watson deserves credit with supporting back-to-back top-four finishes at the position for DeAndre Hopkins in 2018 and 2019. In that time, Hopkins logged 163 and 150 targets respectively averaging 18.0 or more points per game each season.
It may also finally be time for a David Njoku breakout at tight end. The Browns placed the franchise tag on Njoku and also released tight end, Austin Hooper. While Harrison Bryant is still on the roster, Njoku figures to eat into most of Hooper’s vacated 43.3% tight end target share as he nearly doubled Bryant’s targets last season. Njoku is probably a wait-and-see fantasy tight end, but a good bench stash to start the season.
Denver Broncos
Russell Wilson heading to Denver via trade is the biggest bombshell of the offseason. The Seahawks not only acquired the 9th-overall pick from Denver, but also quarterback, Drew Lock, tight end, Noah Fant, and a package of additional picks. Wilson now enters the AFC West to compete with the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Derek Carr. Get your popcorn ready!
Denver fans, and fantasy football managers alike, rejoice! Russ will be cookin’ with Cortland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Tim Patrick. All three pass catchers get a major boost and I currently value them in that order. I know Jeudy has a bit more name recognition, but Sutton is this team’s WR1. He should serve as the D.K. Metcalf comp in Denver with his 6’4″ frame and downfield speed.
Currently, Javonte Williams owns this Bronco backfield. It’s to be determined where free agent back, Melvin Gordon, will end up. I do think he will return to Denver, unless he finds an opportunity to be the lead back elsewhere, perhaps in Houston. If that’s the case, Williams’ draft value will lock into the top-10 at the position with some managers reaching for him in the top-five.
Overall, Denver will be a much more efficient offense with Wilson under center. Head coach, Nathaniel Hackett, should elevate the offense from its 23rd rank in 2021 closer to top-10, where his Packers were last season. Russell Wilson should be back very much back in the QB1 discussion.
Houston Texans
The departure of Deshaun Watson only benefits the Texans at this point given that he was never going to play in Houston again anyway. They’ve since resigned Jeff Driskel and added Kyle Allen to back up Davis Mills as quarterback. It’s likely they give Mills a full-season shot to be the franchise quarterback. He has a good mentor in offensive coordinator, Pep Hamilton, but probably won’t have enough week-to-week consistency with the talent around him to plug into redraft fantasy rosters.
Outside of Mills, Brandin Cooks is the only offensive player on the roster worth talking about for fantasy football. It’s worth noting that the Texans would save just over $12 million if he were traded or released after June 1st. I wouldn’t put too much weight in him remaining in Houston just yet, but, if he does, he should produce WR3 numbers, at least, on volume alone.
The bottom line is that this team needs major upgrading at running back and wide receiver especially. They currently own the 3rd and 13th overall picks. I do expect a wide receiver selection from them at 13. Otherwise, your guess is as good as mine as to who to trust in this backfield for 2022. As far as pass catchers go, I do like Nico Collins as a sneaky second-year breakout at wide receiver.
Indianapolis Colts
Another team, another quarterback change. Only for the Colts, Matt Ryan will be their sixth different Week 1 starting quarterback in six seasons. Indy remarkably unloaded Carson Wentz and his contract to the Washington Commanders receiving two third-round picks, one of which could turn into a second based on his snap count in Washington. The Colts then flipped a third-rounder of their own to bring Matt Ryan into town.
The addition of Matt Ryan bodes well for Michael Pittman Jr. if the Colts cater to Ryan’s pass-first style of play. Pittman enters the 2022 season after setting career highs in receptions (88), yards (1,082), and touchdowns (6) last year. Largely due to Julio Jones, Ryan is no stranger to posting QB1 numbers in fantasy points per game having done so in six of the last 10 seasons. Pittman will be the top receiver in Indy, regardless of who else the team signs; yes, even Julio Jones himself.
The 2021 Colts ran the ball the sixth-most times across the league. Meanwhile, Atlanta finished in the bottom-four of total rushing attempts. Indianapolis could play into their strengths with their top-rated offensive line and the defending rushing title leader, Jonathan Taylor, continuing their own run-heavy approach. I do think we see more of a balance, however, taking all of the above into consideration in addition to Matt Ryan’s experience, but also his age. That said, I’m giving Pittman that aforementioned boost in value and lowering Taylor just slightly, though still in my top-five running backs.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Most of the early talk of free agency surrounded the Jacksonville Jaguars. They hired Super Bowl winning coach, Doug Pederson, have the first-overall pick in the draft, and entered free agency with a ton of cap space to bolster their roster.
First thing’s first, offensive tackle, Cam Robinson, received the team’s franchise tag. This locks him in for at least the year to continue protecting second-year quarterback, Trevor Lawrence. Jacksonville is also in good shape after pulling Pro Bowl guard, Brandon Scherff, away from Washington. Adding two top offensive linemen suggests the Jaguars focus on defense with the first-overall pick.
Perhaps the biggest signing out of Jacksonville is wide receiver, Christian Kirk, who signed a massive deal at the start of free agency. While some don’t believe Kirk is worth the big money, Jacksonville had the money to spend. Simple. His big payday alludes to the idea that he will be the Trevor’s top target with a chance to surpass the 1,000-yard receiving mark.
In addition to Kirk, the Jags added wide receiver, Zay Jones, and tight end, Evan Engram to the receiving corps. While neither will likely light the fantasy football world on fire, prioritizing proven pass-catchers will only help boost Trevor Lawrence’s value. Engram is in a good spot to finish as a top-10 tight end if Doug Pederson works him into the offense similarly to how he did with Zach Ertz in Philadelphia.
A big winner of the Jaguars offseason is running back, Travis Etienne. While he missed his rookie season with a foot injury, he should see a majority of the touches in his second season. James Robinson is recovering from an Achilles injury and the team released Carlos Hyde. Etienne has RB1 upside with pass-catching ability. He just needs the volume.
Kansas City Chiefs
Some would say the Chiefs are the worst team in the AFC West after this offseason. It’s a jarring, yet fair argument, but the Chiefs roster is still extremely potent. That just goes to show you how incredibly stacked this division is within this conference.
The biggest story out of Kansas City is the Tyreek Hill trade, which I go into more of a discussion about a bit later with his new team, the Miami Dolphins. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are filling the void with free agent signings Juju Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, for now. Aside from losing Hill, the Chiefs also let Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle walk in free agency.
Of the collective 637 targets from the Chiefs’ 2021 passing game, 337 of them, or 52.9% have moved on with Hill, Robinson, Pringle, and others. That is a huge target share to get a piece of, especially considering Travis Kelce already commanded 21.2% on his own. I think Smith-Schuster can benefit the most from this, especially out of the slot making sure to extend drives. It’s been a while, but he could get back to his 111/1,426/7 numbers from his breakout 2018 season. Keep in mind Mahomes is a massive upgrade over Ben Roethlisberger.
Ronald Jones is the new running back in town. Given the Chiefs’ finances, and the decision to move on from Tyreek Hill, I don’t expect an additional, impactful running back signing. Even Jones’ deal is just for this season. So, it’s likely RoJo and Clyde Edwards-Helaire getting the majority of touches in this backfield. The good news for CEH is that he is a far better pass catcher than Jones. Furthermore, receiving backs from last season, like Jerrick McKinnon, are no longer with the team. Edwards-Helaire will likely never receive enough volume for a rock solid RB1 fantasy finish. If he’s healthy, however, he can still have a strong top-20 season.
Las Vegas Raiders
Davante Adams is a Las Vegas Raider. That is still an unbelievable sentence to type. While the trade from Green Bay seemingly came out of nowhere, there were rumors as far back as last June that suggested Adams could somehow end up in Vegas. The Packers were able to match the money the Raiders eventually gave Adams, but he reportedly made it clear he wanted to move on and play with former college teammate, Derek Carr.
Adams is still one of the best route runners in the league. His connection with Carr should only further help maintain Adams’ WR1 fantasy value. I would be more inclined to rank him as the overall WR1 if he had stayed in Green Bay with Rodgers.
In addition to acquiring Adams, the Raiders are also adding Demarcus Robinson and Mack Hollins to replace Zay Jones and Desean Jackson. The pass catchers we want in fantasy football will be Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and tight end, Darren Waller. Bringing in Adams will undoubtedly take away from Renfrow’s massive 2021 target share. I still expect head coach, Josh McDaniels, to find a way to spread the wealth amongst the three.
Josh Jacobs should still see most of the carries out of this backfield. It did catch my eye, however, that former New England running back, Brandon Bolden, followed McDaniels to Las Vegas in free agency. The team also added Ameer Abdullah, but he shouldn’t threaten anyone’s workload if he even makes the team.
Los Angeles Chargers
For the most part, the Chargers’ offseason primarily focused on improving the defense. Los Angeles specifically traded for Khalil Mack to pair with Joey Bosa for a dangerous duo of edge rushers. They also signed the top cornerback on the market, J.C. Jackson, to round out their already solid secondary of Asante Samuel Jr. and Derwin James.
The Los Angeles Chargers are probably the best defense on paper in the AFC. They have the potential to be the best overall defense/special teams for fantasy football for the 2022 season. Facing off against Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, and Patrick Mahomes over the course of six games is going to be tough. Proceed with caution during those matchups.
Mike Williams is the biggest offseason signing for this Chargers offense. The team made it clear he was sticking around either under the franchise tag or with a contract extension. Williams is a big-body, deep threat that Justin Herbert continues to build a rapport with. He’s averaging 15.3 yards per catch since Herbert took over as the starter. Williams also set career-highs in targets (129), receptions (76), and receiving yards (1,146). Let’s just hope he keeps the momentum going after securing the bag.
Miami Dolphins
One of the biggest splashes of the offseason is the trade that sent wide receiver, Tyreek Hill, to the Dolphins in exchange for a package of picks. Hill joins running backs Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, wide receivers Cedrick Wilson, Trent Sherfield, and backup quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater, on a big list of acquisitions for this offense. Prior to this frenzy of moves, tight end, Mike Gesicki received the franchise tag, as well.
Quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, simply has no reason, other than his own play, to fail with this new offensive firepower. I think head coach, Mike McDaniel, will run (quite literally) a similar run-heavy offense as the San Francisco 49ers, where he served as their offensive coordinator in 2021.
With that in mind, Tua will likely keep things short and sweet. This is good news for all pass catchers, including Chase Edmonds out of the backfield. Furthermore, the running backs will likely be busy in the red zone. Due to the totality of these circumstances, Tua is more likely to finish as a high-end QB2 than soar into the top-10 or even 12 at the position.
While Tyreek Hill might seem like a deep threat, he averages just 13.8 yards per reception. That’s nowhere near the higher averages of significant deep threats from the 2021 season such as Gabriel Davis (17.6), Ja’Marr Chase (17.2), and even Van Jefferson (15.2), to name a few.
Hill will remain a WR1 on talent alone but catching passes from Tua instead of Mahomes is a downgrade. He should still demand a lot of attention from defenses. That’s good news for Mike Gesicki, who is a mismatch at 6’6″ 250-pounds, especially in the red zone.
New England Patriots
Is anyone else unsettled by the quiet offseason going on in New England so far? It feels like any day now they could make a big move and Bill Belichick will have this team back on top of the AFC East somehow, some way. As of late March, they don’t have much cap space to work with so it will be interesting to see where they go from here.
So far, bringing back James White is the only offseason move of significance for fantasy football purposes. The running backs worth rostering for the 2022 season are Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. White is and has been, mostly a third-down receiving back. It should be business as usual for him again this season which could warrant weekly flex appeal any given week in PPR formats. He is a late-round draft pick as best.
At current, the Patriots pass catchers could use a significant upgrade for the betterment of Mac Jones’ development in his second season. If they are unable to bring in a free agent before the draft, they may have to consider who is on the board with the 21st overall pick. Unfortunately, New England’s track record of drafting receivers, as of late, is one of the worst in the league.
New York Jets
Similar to the aforementioned Patriots, the Jets need to continue to make offseason moves for the betterment of Zach Wilson’s development in his second season at quarterback, as well. The Jets are in a better position to do so with the 4th and 10th-overall picks in next month’s draft. One can only hope they add a top offensive lineman as well as a wide receiver with those picks.
Outside of discussions of what they might do, the Jets have made re-signing wide receiver, Braxton Berrios, running back, Tevin Coleman, and quarterback, Joe Flacco, their priorities so far this offseason. Only Berrios of that bunch should be on the fantasy radar. With Jamison Crowder heading to Buffalo, Berrios likely sees more work in the passing game eating into Crowder’s 72 vacated targets from the 2021 season.
Otherwise, Elijah Moore should continue to feast in this offense. It didn’t matter for Moore who was under center in New York last season. Once things got rolling for the rookie receiver, in Week 7, he saw no less than six targets in every game from then until Week 13. Moore saw double-digit targets in two of those seven games with Zach Wilson at quarterback in both of them. He finished as the fantasy WR3 and WR9 those weeks, respectively, with 29.6 and 20.6 PPR points.
Pittsburgh Steelers
It’s the dawn of a new era in Pittsburgh as Ben Roethlisberger heads off into retirement. To replace him, the team is handing over the reins to Mitchell Trubisky, at least for a short while, after signing him to a two-year deal. This gives Trubisky a chance to start in 2022. However, he is more than likely the bridge to a rookie quarterback the Steelers will take in the first round of next month’s draft.
Regardless of your feelings on Trubisky, there is no denying he is an upgrade from 2021 Roethlisberger based on arm strength alone. In Trubisky’s career as a starting quarterback, he averages more air yards per passing attempt (8.3) than Big Ben did at 39 years old last season (6.7). Mitch also averages more fantasy points per game as a starter (18.5) than Rothelisberger in 2021 (15.8). None of Trubisky’s stats are eye-popping as a whole. Such is life as the starting quarterback in Chicago over the past few decades, though.
I will value Dionte Johnson, Pat Freiermuth, and Chase Claypool in that order as pass catchers in PPR leagues. Claypool’s biggest value is his ability to go deep and I do worry about Trubisky’s ability to get him the ball accurately. That leaves Johnson and Freiermuth the ability to pay off big in shorter routes to rack up points.
The Steelers haven’t signed a running back that will threaten Najee Harris’ workload or role. He is a clear-cut RB1 and first-round pick for the 2022 fantasy football season. Even drafting a running back doesn’t change this sentiment.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans are just as busy as every other AFC team this offseason, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Returning to the team are wide receiver, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and tight end, Geoff Swaim. Though Westbrook-Ikhine provided limited streaming potential last year, he is not much of a fantasy option on a run-first team. Swaim, himself, isn’t in consideration either with just 40 total receptions across two seasons in Tennessee. The team also signed Austin Hooper who should dominate tight end targets. He will be a late-round bench stash with some upside.
The biggest offseason move for the Titans is the decision to release Julio Jones. Not even a year ago, the Titans sent the Falcons a second-round pick for the former Pro Bowl receiver. Fantasy football managers know that Julio’s hamstring limited any sort of potential he had for the 2021 season.
Following the Los Angeles Rams’ offseason signing of Allen Robinson, the Titans then acquired wide receiver, Robert Woods, in a trade. Woods specifically advised the Rams that the Titans were a team he would be open to playing for. Though Woods is returning from an ACL injury, he will pair great with A.J. Brown, who will likely command 25% of the team target share if healthy for a full season.
Derrick Henry is the focal point of this offense. Though he doesn’t add much value as a pass-catcher, he is still a first-round fantasy draft pick. The Titans are bringing back Dontrell Hilliard, instead of D’Onta Foreman, as Henry’s clear-cut handcuff for the 2022 season.