We’ve passed the trade deadline in leagues that have them, so I’m turning to deep league adds for one-category production, looking for players owned in fewer than a quarter of Fantrax leagues with a standout tool that could allow owners willing to punt some other categories for production in one. Today, position players: one off-the-radar hitter apiece who has a chance to offer owners a boost in average, home runs and stolen bases, respectively.
Batting Average- Joey Wendle (owned in 27% of leagues)
Batting average is tough to predict, especially in small sample sizes like the final two months of the season, because of the inherent randomness of ball in play results. To construct a high-average player, though, we’d want a player who strikes out infrequently (K% less than 21.3%), hits the ball hard (hard contact rate above 35.9%), doesn’t pop up (IFFB rate below 10.3%) and has at least average speed to be able to beat out infield hits (sprint speed higher than 27 feet per second). Among players with at least 100 plate appearances, only one player meets all four qualifications and is owned in fewer than 25 percent of Fantrax leagues: Royals outfielder Rosell Herrera.
This isn’t particularly satisfying, though. Herrera’s a 25-year-old rookie slashing .249/.291/.335 this season, and neither his projections nor his Statcast data offer much reason for optimism. Fangraphs’ Depth Charts forecasts Herrera to hit only .245 moving forward, and his past exit velocities and launch angles only “earned” a .240 batting average, per Statcast. Herrera’s appearance on a leaderboard that includes some of the league’s best contact hitters is interesting, but it’s difficult to say he’s truly on the verge of a breakout.
So I’m going to cheat here a little bit and go with a player owned in 27 percent of leagues: not truly off-the-radar, but available in enough leagues to make for a bit of a sleeper. Joey Wendle is hitting .295 this season, and while his projections aren’t that optimistic, Wendle looks like a player who could sustain a high batting average on balls in play. He hits line drives and ground balls to all fields, making him a difficult player for opposing teams to shift, and his average exit velocity is two miles per hour above average. Wendle chases a fair share of pitches, so it’s an open question whether he can sustain the quality of contact he’s currently making, but he might have enough bat control to pull it off.
Home Runs- Renato Nunez (owned in 8% of leagues)
Nuñez should get a chance to play everyday in Baltimore the rest of the way, and he’s got multiple position eligibility, with owners able to slot him at third base or in the outfield. More important for this analysis, Nuñez has power. His peak exit velocity is above-average, and his average exit velocity ranks in the top quarter of big league hitters. This isn’t a fluke that no one saw coming- scouts have long tagged Nuñez as having plus raw power, although they remained split on how much an overaggressive approach would inhibit his ability to tap into it.
Even here, though, there’s reason for moderate optimism. He cut his strikeout rate in Triple-A by five percentage points this year, despite moving from the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League to the more neutral International League. That seems to have carried over to the majors. He’s chasing fewer pitches out of the zone than he did in his brief time last season, he’s been more aggressive in the zone, and, not coincidentally, he’s making more contact. He’ll never be a high average hitter, he hits a lot of popups, and even this season he’s shown some swing-and-miss, but his moderate improvement in contact skills could result in a handful more home runs than expected. Fangraphs forecasts Nuñez to hit six long balls down the stretch. Believe in his contact improvements, and it’s not hard to see him launching eight or nine with consistent playing time in the bandbox that is Camden Yards. If you need cheap power at all costs, Nuñez might be the way to go.
Stolen Bases- Terrance Gore (owned in 0% of leagues)
Gore’s the most one-dimensional of all these players, but steals are the toughest thing to find, so you’ll have to bear with me here. A 21st century Herb Washington, Gore was just traded from Kansas City to the Cubs, for whom he’s currently stationed in Triple-A Iowa. Gore can’t hit… at all. He’s gotten into 49 MLB games in his career, and he’s gotten a hit in exactly zero of them. With Kansas City’s Triple-A affiliate, Gore hit .211/.304/.254, and he has all of one home run as a professional. It’d be a shock if he takes a single plate appearance as a Cub.
So why mention Gore at all? Remember, this is a player who stole eleven bases in 2016 during Kansas City’s attempted postseason push, deployed almost exclusively as a late-game pinch runner after rosters expanded in September (nine of his steals came in September, two in limited playing time earlier in the season). He’s almost certain to see a similar role in Chicago. If the Cubs want his game-changing speed on the bench in October, they need to add him to the 40-man roster in September. If he’s going to be on the 40-man in September, he’ll be in the big leagues, where Joe Maddon’s free to deploy him on the bases late in close games.
He’s only of use to the smallest subset of owners looking for stolen bases above all else. But Gore is still blazing fast, having been named the best baserunner in the PCL by scouts and managers who saw him this season. And he’s shown game-changing speed in the past; remember, he stole nine bases in September 2016. Only six different players have managed at least nine steals in a calendar month in 2018. Gore’s only for the most desperate owners, but he’s available in your league, and he might steal you a category if you add him early.
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