Draft season is quickly approaching and not all of us have the time to dig deep to identify the best deals and avoid the bad ones. Luckily, there are degenerates like me who have nothing better to do and I’m happy help you avoid getting hoodwinked! Take a peek at a few of my most over and undervalued players and thank me later.
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Overvalued Players
Emmanuel Sanders, New Orleans Saints
To be fair, his ADP is low enough that you could fall into the name recognition trap and not be hurt by the wasted pick. However, when you look closely, it appears Sanders will only be lineup worthy if there’s an injury to Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, or Jared Cook. Considering this, I don’t think he’s worth drafting at any price. The problem with Sanders is simple; Brees isn’t likely to take targets away from the three aforementioned players to look for Sanders. Sure, he could, but he wouldn’t be helping himself…then again, as we learned last week, he will shoot himself in the foot on occasion.
In all seriousness though, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas are vastly superior options that Brees will still look for at a ridiculous rate. Furthermore, Brees loves nothing more than throwing up the seam to an athletic pass-catching tight end when he has one, and that he does in Jared Cook.
Tedd Ginn’s departure opens up just 56 targets and the likelihood of Taysom Hill being as involved as he was down the stretch in 2019 is high. Tre’quan Smith’s limited role should also remain the same. All things considered, I find it really hard to believe Sanders will reach 600 yards. Take a shot on a young pup with some upside at Sanders’ ADP.
Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders
The reality for Waller is as simple and obvious as it is for Sanders. Last year Waller was a beneficiary of a lack of credible receivers on the Raiders roster. Fast forward to 2020 and the Raiders have stocked the cupboard with plenty of goodies. Henry Ruggs III and Bryan Edwards alone would make it difficult for Waller to receive another 117 targets in 2020. But the raiders also added a high upside swiss army knife in Lynn Bowden Jr. In theory, the change of scenery could even turn Nelson Agholor into a reliable target, and I like Hunter Renfrow to take a step forward potentially commanding more looks.
Some will say Jason Witten will be a threat to Waller’s snaps, and he may be, but I suspect the Witten signing was more about depth and the leadership value he adds. Waller could defy the odds and make a fool of me, but he’s the most overvalued tight end in my book.
Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
Yup, I’m sippin’ on haterade today. There are just so many red flags here. The injury history that goes all the way back to college, the addition of legit pass-catcher Chris Thompson, and the very real possibility of a mid-season trade (probably not a good thing). Yes, his touchdown count is likely to spike, but the reality is, his receptions and receiving yards could be cut in half. Any improvement from Ryquell Armstead would likely take away touches as well.
The lack of RB depth played a huge part in Fournette’s breakout, and the depth will be significantly better with Thompson and growth from the talented Armstead. Another factor that could come into play is the possible growth from Gardiner Minshew. If Minshew takes a leap, there may be significantly less dump-offs.
Do I think Fournette can be good again? Of course, but he’s likely to be a 2nd or 3rd round pick. Nothing is a sure thing, but with my top 3 picks, I want to draft players without so many red flags. Le’Veon Bell, Melvin Gordon III, Kenyon Drake are much better bets being drafted in the same range. And let’s be real, do you really want to roster a dude named Leonard?!
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Undervalued Players
Chris Herndon, New York Jets
This dude isn’t even being drafted in most 12-team leagues! I feel dirty just typing it. To say he’s underrated is an understatement. Yes, the tight end position is as deep as it’s ever been, but guys like Greg Olsen and David Njoku are being favored over Herndon… blasphemy! The only real knock on Herndon is his injury history, but for the price, I have no problem disregarding it.
In 2018, he showed as well as any rookie tight end can be expected to. Now he’s fully healthy and ready to dance. He’s well-rounded as a blocker and receiver, plus he can line up anywhere on the field. Those are qualities that earn you plenty of snaps. What else is working in his favor? A healthy and more developed Sam Darnold as well as no stud options at receiver. If the improved offensive line and the year of seasoning help Darnold finally put it all together, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Herndon attract 80+ targets and plenty of looks in the red zone. He is one of 2020’s criminally undervalued players. Take a shot!
Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks
Penny is particularly undervalued in dynasty leagues. Many will argue that he’s a bust because he hasn’t broken out in his first two years, but that’s hardly his fault. Being stuck behind Chris Carson was always going to make it difficult for any young RB to kick the door open. That’s not to say he hasn’t done anything. He’s shown great burst, vision, and receiving ability while posting an impressive 5.3 YPC. Add that to his 4.40 wheels at 220 lbs. and his age (24), and you have a prime hold/buy candidate in dynasty leagues.
If that wasn’t enough to convince you, Chris Carson is a UFA in 2021.
What’s the appeal in 2020? Chris Carson is hardly the most durable RB and has a violent running style. A late-season Carson injury would make Penny a league-winner. Also noteworthy, Rashaad Penny was ascending at the time of his injury last year and could force a timeshare when he returns. The Seahawks know they have a really talented back in Penny, and so should you. Also promising, Penny has shown signs of maturing. Last year he swore off junk food and started to really take his health seriously. Running backs that profile as three-down workhorses don’t grow on trees. If you have an opportunity to buy low, give him a go.
Robert Woods
What’s a guy have to do to get some respect?!
2018 – WR11
2019 – WR14
He was just 17 points away from being WR10 in 2019, and that was with 1 game missed and an abnormal TD total of two. Still, though, his 2020 ADP has him as WR 20 or worse. It’s just rude, man! You could also argue this is the best situation Woods has been in. There’s no legitimate/proven third receiver for the first time in three years. That’s no disrespect to Josh Reynolds or Van Jefferson, but they probably won’t command the targets in three-WR sets that Sammy Watkins and Brandin Cooks did.
There was also an offensive switch to more use of 12-personnel (1RB/2TE/2WR) in the second half of 2019 that helped Woods explode and it appears to be in place for 2020 as well. Yes, you could follow the ADP and draft the sexy A.J. Brown, Calvin Ridley, or Deebo Samuel ahead of Woods, but you’re avoiding the proven Woods to do so. This fantasy football phenomenon reminds me of managers drafting Baker Mayfield over Russell Wilson in 2019. It’s head-scratching that people are so fascinated with the new sexy flavors that they’ll take fruitless risks. There is nothing to gain. Unless the unproven player has a significantly higher ceiling than the proven player, the proven player is the best choice.
Who are your favorite undervalued players for 2020? Let us know in the comments below. We promise not to share them with anyone in your league!
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