As you may recall, I wrote an article referring to the late round gems for the 2018 season. As college football draws near, don’t overspend on a player when you can wait and get an absolute stud. This week, I look into the ADP (average draft position) of various overvalued and undervalued players in 2018 college fantasy football.
Overvalued and Undervalued Players
RB Bryce Love, Stanford
ADP: 2.92
% Drafted: 100%
Verdict: Overvalued
Saying that Bryce Love isn’t a first round pick would be a lie considering he is coming off of a 1,938-yard, 18-touchdown season. But, the fact of the matter is that Bryce Love is going off the board before Devin Singletary who recorded 32 touchdowns a season ago and Khalil Tate who is the undisputed top quarterback in CFF this season. Don’t make the mistake of taking a great player when you can have the best player at a position.
QB Mason Fine, North Texas
ADP: 78.46
% Drafted: 100%
Verdict: Under Valued
Mason Fine’s 2017 season resulted in 4,000-plus passing yards and 31 passing touchdowns. Considering that North Texas has a relaxed 2018 schedule and Fine returns his top receiving targets in Michael Lawrence and Jalen Guyton, it could mean even greater numbers in 2017. In the “CFF: On Campus” Podcast, I mentioned that Fine should go in the fourth or fifth round and he’s falling to around the seventh round. If your fellow owners allow such a talent to fall past the fourth round, take him immediately.
QB/WR Zach Abey, Navy
ADP: 47.65
% Drafted: 100%
Verdict: Over Valued
This one is very confusing to me. Malcolm Perry is the quarterback for Navy this season and this was only cemented with Abey moving to receiver during the offseason. Abey is heading off the board in rounds four and five when he should likely be undrafted or as a late handcuff to Malcolm Perry. If you are one of the few who are making the mistake thinking that Abey is the guy for Navy this season, reevaluate and take Perry who is coming off the board around the 92nd pick.
WR Gary Jennings Jr., West Virginia
ADP: 75.24
% Drafted: 100%
Verdict: Under Valued
Gary Jennings Jr. is possibly the most underrated receiver in all of college football. Last season Jennings accounted for 97 receptions and over 1,000 yards but was an afterthought to David Sills V, who racked up 18 touchdowns.
Jennings is currently the 29th receiver off the board in most leagues but should be one of the top 15. If he can continue to see a similar amount of targets, he will be a stud in 2018 with two or three extra touchdowns sprinkled in. Don’t sleep on Jennings this year, especially if you took Sills early on.
Alabama, Wisconsin, and Clemson’s Defenses
ADP: 29, 35, 37
% Drafted: 100%
Verdict: Over Valued
I do understand how valuable these three defenses can be in college football, but taking them in the third or fourth rounds is way too early for a defense. The beginning rounds are crucial picks for the foundations of your team. One wasted pick and you’re downgrading an entire position. If you choose to take one of these three, albeit elite, defenses in the first four rounds you may miss out on a top-tier second option for a position and miss out on 10-20 incredible players waiting on your next pick to come up. Leave the defenses for later, focus on your skill players.
WR Brendan O’Leary-Orange, Nevada
ADP: 124.27
% Drafted: 100%
Verdict: Under Valued
I initially wasn’t high on Brendan O’Leary-Orange, but after more research and observation it seems that he will be the primary target for the Nevada Wolfpack in 2018. Many college fantasy experts are high on Nevada quarterback Ty Gangi going into 2018 and the great debate was who was going to be the guy between O’Leary-Orange and McLane Mannix. Brendan’s stature at 6-4 is substantially larger than most G5 corners making him an instant matchup problem in almost every game this season.
RB Mulbah Car, Houston
ADP: 105
% Drafted: 100%
Verdict: Over Drafted
Mulbah Car showed off this Spring with 72 yards and two touchdowns and had most owners thinking that a ninth or 10th round pick would be a great value for this type of player in this type of offense. However, the addition of Terrance Williams complicates things as the former Baylor Bear looks to make an impact going into his final collegiate season. Williams racked up over 1,000 yards as a sophomore but a shoulder injury hindered his game last season. Back in full health, Williams will challenge Car for time and they will likely be an incredible one-two punch which is great for Houston but nor for fantasy owners.
QB Brent Stockstill, Middle Tennessee State
ADP: 193.5
% Drafted: 100%
Verdict: Under Valued
Similar to my late round draft gems piece, Brent Stockstill is still riding low in the draft. Stockstill is going off the board in the 13th round which is insane for a guy that has the potential to throw for 300-plus yards a game with multiple touchdowns. His past injuries are undoubtedly the reason that the Blue Raider is falling this far which is all the more reason to snatch him up while you can. We’ve never seen what he can do healthy for an entire season. What if this is the year and you were willing to take the chance?
More Great College Fantasy Football Content
Curious about what the experts think about your favorite players? Chech out the FootballDiehards.com 5th Annual Suma Cum Laude Mock Draft for the 2018 season.
Also, be sure to tune into the weekly “CFF: On Campus” Podcast featuring Justin Heisey, John Laub (@gridironschol91), and Scott Bogman (@bogmansports) on Soundcloud or iTunes.
Be sure to check out previous articles by Justin Heisey