With starting pitchers, it’s all about wins, strikeouts, and innings pitched so that the best plays for a rotisserie team are not necessarily the same as for a points team. We’re not concerned here with ratios such as WHIP and ERA except in how they might impact a hurler’s ability to pitch deep into starts and exit with a win. There is a wide range of starting pitchers available in every price category for the Fantrax Salary Cap challenge games, and most fantasy managers will choose starters from across the salary spectrum to fill out their roster.
Maximizing double starts is one of the key strategies employed by every points player. Hence, it only makes sense that we should strive to make the majority or at least half of our player purchases during the season at starting pitcher.
Experienced managers will also roster many mid-range starters who carry a decent resume – including good K/9 rates. These are pitchers that you can sit or play according to the anticipated match-ups for a given week.
Implications for Roster Construction
[the_ad id=”693″]While it’s good to have a range of salaries included in your stable of starting pitchers, I look at my starting pitching a bit differently than my hitting when constructing my roster. While I am inevitably going to have to take some chances on some lower priced hitters, I am looking for more stability in my position players than my starting pitchers – at least at the outset. Hitting is generally more predictable than pitching in the Fantrax Salary Cap Points game. Wins are just more of a crapshoot. Because wins are not just a function of how well an individual pitcher performs, but also how that pitcher’s team performs on any given day, you should be looking for starting pitchers from good teams with good to above average bullpens.
Innings limits and injuries are more a part of the game than ever before. It’s important to have some anchors in your assortment of starting pitchers just because there inevitably will be some attrition. At the end of the season, when I review my roster, I would hope that I have at least 6 hurlers that graced my roster on Opening Day still standing. I am more likely to take a flyer on someone who might be facing an innings limit in September or an-injury-prone veteran with some upside on my initial roster than I would once I start making player claims during the season. Many Salary Cap managers who reaped the benefits of having claimed high-upside, low-cost youngsters like Steven Matz, Vince Velasquez, or Aaron Nola in May of 2016 were caught in a bind in September when those same pitchers were shut down for the season. It’s not that you can’t make use of those young arms with lower price tags. My advice would be that you can ride a couple of low-cost arms at the outset, but even as early as May and June, you should be making player claims with an idea of what your collection of eleven starters is going to look like in September. That means that once you start replacing the injured or ineffective starters on your team, you should be doing so with proven commodities – players who have a history of putting up 200-inning seasons who don’t have an injury history that reads like a James Michener novel.
There are at least 150 starters to choose from, and space precludes us from looking at all of them.
TOP TIER
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[the_ad id=”384″]As you put together your rotation of starters, you will likely want a couple of high-priced studs that you will throw primarily for double start weeks. These are the pitchers that can garner between 45 and 55 points in a hot week but are too expensive to play for single starts when a well-pitched 7-inning, 8 strikeout no-decision gets you a less than cost-efficient 15 points. These are the pitchers who make your initial roster cut and that you expect will still be holding down a spot on your team when you look at your lineup at season’s end. When you put together your roster, you should check your roster flexibility to make sure that you are able to fit all of your most expensive starters in your lineup at the same time in case they all double during the same week.
In my opinion, there is some downside to having too many top tier pitchers on your roster. You absolutely must play your Top Tier pitchers for double-start weeks. However, you will inevitably have weeks during the season when a top end pitcher will have a Tuesday start, and because of rain or other exigencies, they just don’t get their second scheduled start on Sunday. Having too many top end pitchers also reduces the number of mid-range starters that you have available to play match-ups.
Clayton Kershaw (3270)
Kershaw threw 6 shutout innings with 11 strikeouts on Thursday. The future Hall of Fame lefty is simply the best pitcher of his generation. Nuff said.
Max Scherzer (3260) and Chris Sale (3020)
We would usually anticipate that each of these studs would two-step during the first week of the season – severely limiting the cap space available for hitting. Many Fantasy managers will take the opportunity to add one (or both) of these studs to their rosters knowing that their first double start week occurs during Week 2. Scherzer has indicated the injury issue that was impacting the way he gripped the ball is behind him and he is set to start the third game of the season against the Marlins.
Madison Bumgarner (3090)
MadBum is entering his age-27 season and is as steady as they come. The San Francisco southpaw has scored 600+ points in each of the past 3 years and has made no less than 31 starts in each season since 2011. The addition of Mark Melancon is a definite upgrade for the bullpen and a boost to Bumgarner’s value.
Corey Kluber (2960)
Kluber experienced a minor slip in strikeout rate (to 26.4%) and a spike in his walk rate (to 6.6%) in 2016. His peripherals are still elite, and he is backed by arguably the best bullpen in baseball. The off-season addition of Edwin Encarnacion to the defending AL champions lineup certainly doesn’t hurt his case.
MID-RANGE
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There are plenty of superior options in this price range, and my plan is to eventually complete the season with mid-range choices making up the majority of my starting pitching. The more mid-range and bargain basement options I have on my roster, the better equipped I will be to play match-ups during a given week. The best practice is always to follow where the salaries lead. Choose the pitchers you perceive as being the most cost-effective relative to their salaries. All things being equal this season, I will choose National League starters over American League starters. There are just more weak National League teams – Philadelphia, Atlanta, San Diego, Milwaukee, and Arizona at a minimum – that are in rebuilding mode and, hence, more teams that will provide favorable matchups on a week-to-week basis.
Noah Sydergaard (2640)
Thor’s average fastball velocity (98.1 MPH) was the best among starting pitchers in 2016 according to Statcast. Syndergaard fanned 10.7 batters while walking just 2.1 per 9 innings. The Mets play 57 of their games this season against the Braves, Phillies, and Marlins. That’s a lot of cupcakes.
Justin Verlander (2620)
The only thing better than Verlander’s resurgent season was Kate Upton’s reaction on Twitter to his narrowly losing the Cy Young Award voting. In addition to cavorting with curvaceous supermodels, Verlander threw more fastballs up in the zone and increased the velocity on his slider. All three skills look eminently repeatable.
Stephen Strasburg (2590)
Strasburg went down with a flexor mass strain and made only one regular season start after August 17 due to an injury that is often seen as a precursor to Tommy John surgery. Strasburg had a ridiculous 11.15 K/9 rate in 2016 while healthy. He is the ultimate high injury risk, high reward pitcher. You know what you are getting with the Nationals’ Opening Day starter. My advice is that if you want to roll with Strasburg, you should have him on your initial roster. It makes little sense to claim him after an electric start (as many Fantasy managers did last season) only to see him make his annual tip to the DL and cost you an additional player claim.
Chris Archer (2570)
After a miserable first half of the 2016 season, Archer rebounded to post a stellar second half – cutting his walk rate in half while maintaining his 10.42 K/9 rate. He plays 76 games against AL East opponents against whom he recorded a 2-11 record last season.
Yu Darvish (2540)
Darvish missed nearly 2 full seasons because of Tommy John surgery (TJS), but appears to be fully recovered – as evidenced by his 11.84 K/9 rate in 2016. The Japanese hurler only put 100 innings in the book for 2016 so don’t expect a 200-inning performance for the season.
Carlos Martinez (2470)
The Cardinals Opening Day pitcher had the second-fastest average fastball among qualified starters behind Syndergaard in 2016. The 25-year-old ace paired a 56% ground ball rate with an 8.02 K/9 rate last season.
Jacob deGrom (2330)
It sometimes appears that the Mets rotation alone could keep Dr. James Andrews in business. While the 28-year-old deGrom was limited to 24 starts and 148 innings before surgery abbreviated his 2016 campaign, his arm appears to be healthy, and he has had an excellent spring training.
Kyle Hendricks (2310)
The soft-tossing right-hander led MLB in 2016 with a 2.13 ERA. Despite a fastball that seldom reaches 90 mph, Hendricks managed a K/9 rate slightly higher than Carlos Martinez in 2016 – owing to the liberal use (27%) of a devastating change-up. Hendricks’ ground ball rate of nearly 50% is a terrific strength that is accentuated by the Cubs’ stellar infield defense.
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Danny Salazar (2290)
Salazar features a mid-90’s heater and a devastating change-up, but he has yet to complete an entire season in MLB without either an injury or a trip to the minors. The 27-year-old possesses enormous upside – as evidenced by his 10.55 K/9 rate in 2016 – and benefits greatly from the backing of Cleveland’s superior bullpen.
Carlos Carrasco (2260)
Carrasco experienced “elbow discomfort” in a March 13th start and may not be sufficiently stretched out to be ready to take his rotation spot once the season starts. There’s plenty of fish in the sea. Monitor the situation.
Danny Duffy (2070)
If you watched the 28-year-old’s performances in the World Baseball Classic, you know that his 2016 breakout campaign was not a mirage. The Royals were confident enough in Duffy’s performance to ink him to a 5 year, $65 million deal. The Royals’ Opening Day starter recorded a 9.42 K/9 rate and has a salary that could make him a nearly-every-week starter on your Fantasy team.
Marcus Stroman (1940)
Stroman is a better real life pitcher than Fantasy pitcher – particularly in this format. It might be tempting to roster the Blue Jays’ youngster when he was last sighted throwing 6 no-hit innings vs.Puerto Rico in the WBC Championship game. Stroman’s ordinary 7.39 K/9 rate, 9% swinging strike rate, and residence in the AL East rate peg him as a decent, but not a great option.
Jonathan Gray (1800)
Gray left Friday’s start with an injured big toe, but the #3 overall pick in the 2013 draft hopes to be ready to take the hill for Colorado on Opening Day. The 25-year-old’s primary offering is a 95 mph heater – a pitch that, unlike breaking balls, should be less impacted by the thin air at Coors Field.
Kevin Gausman (1790)
Gausman has been tabbed as the Opening Day starter for the Orioles. The #4 overall pick in the 2012 draft had a career-best 180 innings with an 8.7 K/9 rate in 2016 that was punctuated by an outstanding August through October run that was fueled by increased usage of his split change-up. The 26-year-old could be poised for a breakout season.
Rich Hill (1770), Steven Matz (1650), Lance Lynn (1650), and Lance McCullers (1580)
These four are all high upside, high injury-risk hurlers with above average strikeout rates who toil for playoff contending teams. You might entertain the possibility of taking a shot with one of these pitchers on your roster hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. If you roster any more than that, then you’re pressing your luck. Matz was scratched from his Monday start due to elbow tenderness. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
BARGAIN BASEMENT
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This level of starting pitchers is populated by the young, the infirm, and the injury-prone starters at the back end of rotations. If you plan to take a chance on pitchers in this tier, it is best to do so on your initial roster rather than waiting and expending a player claim once the season starts. While there are definitely some cost-effective options in this tier, you don’t want to overindulge. Few, if any, of these choices, are likely to remain on your roster for the duration of the season.
Vince Velasquez (1460)
Velasquez flashed an elite strikeout tool (10.44 K/9 and 11.2% swinging strike rates) over 131 innings in 2016. The 24-year-old averaged just 5.45 innings per start last season and poses some injury risk.
Joe Ross (1430)
Tyson’s little brother doesn’t possess the same swing-and-miss stuff as some of the other young guns on this list, but he does play for a playoff contender. Did I mention that wins are 10 points a pop?
Aaron Nola (1420)
After an encouraging start to the 2016 season, the #7 overall pick in the 2014 draft suffered through injury and an absurd BABIP of .356 in the second half. While he doesn’t bring the gas that Velasquez does, Nola fanned 9.81 per nine innings with an elite 55.2% ground ball rate last season.
James Paxton (1320)
The Mariner southpaw seems to generate a lot of buzz every year at this time. A mechanical change last season yielded a 2.80 FIP, increased average velocity (96.8 mph), and improved WHIP (1.05 over the second half). The reality is that he still spent time on the DL and posted anemic career highs in wins (6) and innings (121). The 28-year-old probably won’t be on your roster by autumn.
Robert Gsellman (1250)
The newly anointed fifth starter in the Mets rotation got a cameo gig last September when the New York staff resembled nothing if not a MASH unit. His cutter and sinker generated ground balls at an elite rate (54.2%) along with an 8.46 K/9 rate.
Hyun-Jin Ryu (1130)
The former KBO star has struggled with shoulder issues and has pitched just 4 and 2/3 innings over the course of the past two seasons. However, the Dodger southpaw posted a 2.57 ERA and 12:1 K/BB ratio during spring training and Dave Roberts announced on Monday that Ryu would start the season in the Dodger rotation. At his modest salary, Ryu is certainly a cap saver. On the other hand, he makes Steven Matz look like the picture of health by comparison.
Brett Anderson (1090)
The 29-year-old is dirt cheap and has already won the #5 slot in the Cubs rotation. Anderson actually made 31 starts for the Dodgers in 2015, but he’s a DL stint waiting to happen.
SUMMARY
[the_ad id=”567″]One pitfall that befalls many managers is that they make decisions in assembling their initial rosters that are too often based on first week match-ups or first-week salary cap considerations. Make decisions that speak to a long-term overall strategy. Strike a balance when putting together your stable of starting pitchers so that your staff is made up of hurlers from all price ranges. Ensure that you have some studs who you can count on to be there for the long haul but don’t be afraid to take a chance on some low cost, high upside players.
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