Pitching Streamers for Week 5 (August 17 – 23)

We may (fingers crossed) get to see the first full week of action across Major League Baseball this week. All 30 teams are scheduled to play at least six games, so we should have some pitching streamers to pick from. That does not mean they are all good options by any stretch, but some fantasy teams may be hurting more for pitching help than others.

This season is strange for many reasons. The primary issue for analysts is data size. In a typical season, data usually becomes normalized (and thus more reliable) as we approach Memorial Day. For most pitchers, that means 8-10 starts. We do not have the luxury of waiting that long in 2020. In a normal season, we would dismiss early breakouts like those of Alex Cobb and chalk them up to a small sample size. This year, however, you must strike while the iron is hot and hope to catch lightning in a bottle.

For example, last week I mentioned that Washington was averaging the fewest runs in the National League. That is no longer the case. It is almost as if inserting Juan Soto into a lineup makes it more productive. Go figure. The Nationals offense is not suddenly a juggernaut by any stretch, especially now that Starlin Castro is out indefinitely with a broken wrist. However, these ever-changing circumstances are the things we need to try to consider when searching for streamers. The data I am referring to in this article is through Thursday’s games. Much can change between now (as I write this) and then (when the start in question takes place). With all of that in mind, here are next week’s pitching streamers. Choose wisely. It gets ugly quick.

What?! Your league isn’t using Fantrax? Inconceivable! Check out everything Fantrax has to offer and I’m sure you’ll come around to our way of thinking.

Week 5 Pitching Streamers

The Cardinal Conundrum

The St. Louis Cardinals are finally scheduled to resume play after being out of action for over two weeks. They will have to play 55 games in 44 days in order to get to 60. The chaos will begin right away, as the Cardinals will play eight games in five days beginning on Saturday. If this was 1980, they would just rotate three or four starters in and out until their arms fell off. In 2020, however, this will not be the case. The Cardinals will undoubtedly use eight different starters over this period. We do not know which eight, which complicates things a bit. There are several candidates who may be streaming options, but I would prefer to wait and see how this week shakes out. Besides the uncertainty of which pitchers will be used and when they will all have to be stretched out after having been in quarantine. The top name to watch in my opinion is Daniel Ponce de Leon. Others including Alex Reyes and Jake Woodford are worth monitoring depending on the roster moves the team makes prior to Saturday’s doubleheader.

Patrick Sandoval (Wednesday at San Francisco, 30 percent rostered in Fantrax leagues)

Patrick Sandoval has been impressive thus far in 2020. He gave up exactly two hits and one walk while striking out four batters in each of his two starts. Sandoval took the loss on Friday night against the Dodgers, however, giving up four runs in six innings. The team’s top pitching prospect does not have high strikeout upside, but he has an effective slider and curveball that allows him to work his way through a lineup. Sandoval will face a San Francisco offense on Wednesday that ranks in the bottom-10 in baseball in OPS (on-base plus slugging) as well as wOBA (weighted on-base average). Sandoval has a decent shot of picking up a win or quality start in this game and makes for a quality streaming option this week.

Martin Perez (Friday v. Baltimore, 44 percent rostered)

Martin Perez is among the league leaders in avoiding hard contact and average exit velocity allowed. The reduction in hard-hit rate and exit velocity is interesting because Perez showed that ability last season as well. The difference, at least thus far, appears to be batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Opponents hit .276 off Perez last year, which included a .316 BABIP. This year, opponents have just a .237 BABIP, which has led to a .197 opponents batting average. It certainly feels like his early success is unsustainable, so proceed with caution. Regression is almost guaranteed to hit – it just becomes a question of when. I do not believe a matchup with the Orioles offense should not scare you off Perez. Their expected stats are much closer to their 2019 production than their actual 2020 numbers would indicate.

Logan Webb (Friday v. Arizona, 31 percent rostered)

Arizona’s offense has improved a bit in the last week, but they would not be the first team to get a bit of a bump due to a three-game set in Coors Field. They are still a bottom-10 offense thus far in 2020. Logan Webb, meanwhile, had his first rough start of 2020 on Monday in Houston. If these trends continue (i.e. Webb struggles on Sunday and the Snakes rake for the next few days), then I may be a bit wary of Webb in this game. For now, though, I will choose to ignore the smaller sample size within the already small sample size. Webb is scheduled to face Robbie Ray who has been, shall we say, enigmatic thus far. I like Webb’s chances of putting together five solid innings in this game, which is more than I can say for most pitching streamers.

Kolby Allard (Friday at Seattle, 27 percent rostered)

I put Kolby Allard in my “Not Even with Your Team” section last week, and am interested to see how he fares in Coors Field this weekend. Without being able to see that start as I write this, facing the Mariners is more advantageous than going to Colorado. Therefore, I do not mind giving Allard a chance this week. Seattle ranks among the bottom in most offensive categories, despite some impressive starts from individual bats in the lineup. Allard has impressed in his first two starts, and you may be able to get him at a relative discount if he blows up in Colorado before your league’s waiver or bidding period. He will not get many strikeouts, but could very well put himself in line for a victory in this game.

Asher Wojciechowski (Thursday v. Boston, 17 percent rostered)

As Jeff Zimmerman recently pointed out, Asher Wojciechowski has altered his pitch mix in 2020. He has cut the usage of his four-seam fastball nearly in half, while almost doubling his slider usage. The move seems to have worked thus far to a degree, though I would not get carried away quite yet. it is worth noting that his FIP (5.06) is more than a run higher than his current ERA (3.95). Boston does not have the potent offense they have had in recent years, but it is still no cakewalk getting through the top half of that lineup. Boston’s pitching is also giving up six runs a game, so perhaps Wojciechowski can eke out an ugly win. Woj feels like an average streaming option this week. But if we are grading on a curve against the other options, his stock goes up a bit.

Tommy Milone (Wednesday v. Toronto, 21 percent rostered)

Tommy Milone was starting to look like a new pitcher before struggling against Washington on Friday night. He allowed nine hits over four innings, allowing three earned runs. Milone is slated to face the Blue Jays on Wednesday. Toronto’s offense has shown signs of life lately, but they still rank in the bottom half of the league in most offensive categories. They have struggled to the tune of a 68 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, which seems strange given their lineup construction. In any event, Milone is getting more strikeouts and swinging strikes than he normally does, and he is avoiding the home run ball. He is not a must-add by any means but could be a serviceable streamer in this matchup.

Derek Holland (Friday v. Milwaukee, 11 percent rostered)

Derek Holland took one on the chin last week, allowing nine runs in five innings against Detroit. Holland managed to serve up four home runs before recording an out, and Pittsburgh was down 5-0 before most fans would have been in their seats in a normal season. To his credit though, the veteran stayed in and gave his team some much-needed innings. With Pittsburgh’s hodgepodge rotation, they will need Holland to provide some length. If you need someone to stack innings, Holland is not a bad bet. Manager Derek Shelton proved last week that he will leave Holland in even when he does not have his best stuff. Just do not expect to survive a Holland start against Milwaukee without some potential ERA damage. Even before last weekend’s outing, Holland’s ERA was a pedestrian 4.76.

Trevor Richards (Thursday at New York Yankees, 14 percent rostered)

Trevor Richards started on Friday night against the Blue Jays and had a rough go of it. He allowed three runs in 4.1, including two home runs. In his defense, Sahlen Field, Toronto’s current home stadium in Buffalo, has been playing like vintage Coors Field so far. So perhaps we should take that performance with a grain of salt. I would not go rushing to add Richards for a start against the New York Yankees, who have the best offense in baseball through three weeks. It is worth noting, however, that Richards pitched four scoreless innings against New York in a relief appearance last week. The Yankees will also be without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, which may leave them at least a little vulnerable. It is not out of the realm of possibility for Richards to qualify for a win here, though I certainly would not count on it.

Jacob Junis (Friday v. Minnesota, 36 percent rostered)

The Royals planned to use an opener for Jacob Junis on Friday against the Twins before their game was postponed. It seems to be a wise move considering that Junis has struggled when asked to get through a lineup more than twice. Friday’s postponement feels like it will work against Junis. Because he struggles when hitters become familiar with him, it does not seem favorable for him to face the Twins twice in a row. On the bright side, Junis has a much better chance of getting a win if he enters the ballgame in the third inning than he does as a traditional starter. I would feel way better about Junis’ prospects as a steamer this week if he were facing the Reds as originally scheduled. But, as has been the case throughout 2020, the best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry.

Chad Kuhl (Wednesday v. Cleveland, 15 percent rostered)
Steven Brault (Thursday v. Cleveland, 10 percent rostered)
Michael Fulmer (Friday at Cleveland, 26 percent rostered)

These three pitchers face similar circumstances this week. First, the good news. They all face a Cleveland offense that sports some of the worst numbers in the entire sport. Cleveland is dead last in all of baseball in batting average, ISO, OPS, wRC+, and wOBAcon. Other than that, they are clicking on all cylinders. Now, here is the rub with the pitchers in question. None are realistic candidates for a quality start or a win. Michael Fulmer is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery and has pitched just 5.2 innings in two starts so far. Chad Kuhl and Steven Brault are getting stretched out as starters. If you just need a warm body to give you a few innings without doing a ton of damage to your ratios, all three are worth considering given the matchup.

Nick Margevicius (Friday v. Texas, 4 percent rostered)

Nick Margevicius made a spot start for Seattle against Colorado last week and acquitted himself nicely. He pitched 3.1 scoreless innings. Seattle may give him the nod on Friday against Texas, though it seems Kendall Graveman may be ready to return by then. If Margevicius does indeed take the ball, you are hoping for a repeat of that Colorado start. There will be no realistic chance for a win or quality start. Margevicius simply will not pitch long enough into the ballgame. But he should be able to at least get through the Texas lineup without accounting for any major ratio damage.

Not Even With Your Team

The pitchers listed above are not exactly worldbeaters. Such is life when searching the wire for weekly pitching streamers. I consider the following streaming options to be less valuable than the pitchers previously mentioned. However, depending on your league size and your needs, you may have to take a shot with some of these guys.

JT Brubaker (Saturday v. Milwaukee, 8 percent rostered)

JT Brubaker made his first big league start last week against the Twins, surrendering three runs in as many innings. Brubaker features a slider which he has thrown 35 percent of the time so far this year. He does not profile as an elite pitcher, but Pittsburgh is desperate for pitching help, especially now that Joe Musgrove is out. The matchup against Milwaukee is less worrisome than it would appear. The Brew Crew has gotten off to an inauspicious start offensively so far in 2020. Milwaukee ranks just 26th out of 30 teams in OPS and wOBA. Still, it will be difficult to rely on Brubaker as a streaming option this week. He faced just 15 batters in his first start, so expecting more than four innings seems unrealistic, and Brubaker has not historically induced many strikeouts.

Chase Anderson (Thursday v. Philadelphia, 24 percent rostered)
Thomas Hatch (Thursday v. Philadelphia, 5 percent rostered)

It appears that Toronto will go with Chase Anderson and Thomas Hatch as the starters for Thursday’s twin bill against the Phillies. Doubleheaders are often a sneaky way to implement streamers because there are better odds of facing a lineup without a couple of the team’s big bats. Still, I would not expect much here. Anderson went just three innings in his first start and is coming off an oblique injury. You still need to go five innings in a doubleheader to qualify for a win, and I just do not know if Anderson will. Hatch has not pitched three innings in any of his appearances in 2020, so I would not count on more than that from him either. Plus, I am going to avoid throwing pitchers in Buffalo until further notice, and especially against a potent Philadelphia lineup.

Ross Detwiler (Wednesday v. Detroit, 5 percent rostered)
Logan Allen (Saturday v. Detroit, 18 percent rostered)

These two pitchers are also in similar situations. Ross Detwiler has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen so far in 2020. It is no sure thing that he will get the starting nod on Wednesday. Even if he does, I would not expect him to go very long. Cleveland called up Logan Allen after they placed Zach Plesac and Mike Clevinger on the restricted list earlier in the week. If Plesac and Clevinger are still away from the team, Allen should get work as either an opener or a backup for an opener against Detroit. Between having what should be a short leash and facing a surprising Tigers offense, both Detwiler and Allen should only be used as streamers in an emergency.

Ivan Nova (Wednesday v. Chicago White Sox, 20 percent rostered)

Ivan Nova continues to be the gift that keeps on giving to opposing offenses. Nova was lit up on Friday night, allowing eight runs in just 3.1 innings against a Cleveland offense that was the league’s worst heading into that game. His ERA now sits at 8.53 and he has a total of nine strikeouts in 19 innings. I cannot imagine a scenario where I would use Nova as a streamer. The only thing he provides is length, and even that is relative. He has yet to make it through the sixth inning in any of his four starts this season. You would be better off to stack hitters against Nova in DFS than you would to use Nova himself in any format. If you are desperate enough for innings pitched to consider Nova, just take Derek Holland instead. At least he will likely give you some strikeouts.

Bryce Wilson (Tuesday v. Washington, 21 percent rostered)

Atlanta recently recalled Bryse Wilson and optioned Sean Newcomb. The Braves feel like there are employing the typical churn and burn strategy that many of us fantasy managers use. Wilson did not exactly inspire confidence in the Braves or fantasy managers in his first appearance of 2020. He allowed two runs while walking four batters in just 1.2 innings on Tuesday. It sounds like Brian Snitker is tentatively scheduling Wilson for Tuesday. A Tuesday start often carries the lure of a possible two-start week, though that does not appear to be the case here. Wright is inefficient and could struggle with a Washington lineup that has improved lately. The loss of Starlin Castro will not hurt Wilson’s cause, but I just do not see enough here to make me want to take the risk. Wilson needs to show us something first.

Daniel Castano (Thursday v. New York Mets, 0 percent rostered)

Daniel Castano may or may not pitch this weekend, and he may or may not pitch next week. Glad that is settled. You should do your best to make sure Castano is starting before expecting anything out of him. Castano made his Major League debut last Saturday and allowed four earned runs and two home runs. Castano excelled at avoiding big flies last season. He allowed just four homers in 119 innings at two levels in the minors. Castano does not profile as a big strikeout guy, so he needs to keep the ball in the park to have any chance. The Mets offense has been pretty good this year, making this a tough matchup for Castano. I would prefer to go in another direction when looking for pitching streamers this week.

Kyle Wright (Wednesday v. Washington, 47 percent rostered)

Kyle Wright was able to go six innings in his start against the Phillies last week. That set him up to be a popular streamer this week. However, Wright had a mini-meltdown in Miami on Friday night. He lasted just three innings while allowing three runs while serving up six walks. Wright managed to throw just 29 of 65 pitches for strikes in that outing. Walks have continued to be problematic for the right-hander this season. Wright has an ugly 12:16 K: BB ratio through four appearances. Following his most recent clunker, it will be difficult to trust him regardless of his opponent. He happens to be facing Washington, which is not the worst matchup. But if he cannot find the strike zone, it will not matter who he is facing. I would steer clear of Wright until he can figure out how to throw strikes.

Vince Velasquez (Saturday at Atlanta, 35 percent rostered)

Luis Perdomo (Thursday v. Texas, 3 percent rostered)

Walker Lockett (Wednesday at Miami, 1 percent rostered)