Pitching Streamers to Target in Week 16 of Fantasy Baseball

This is the last fantasy matchup before MLB’s All Star Break, marking a rough middle point to the season. In many fantasy leagues, this is the time when managers look to buy or sell, as many actual general managers do. This also means that the pressure of finding reliable pitching streamers is high, considering that these are must-win matchups for many fantasy managers.

Below, you can find my favorite streamers for week 16.

Pitching Streamers Available in Some Leagues (Over 30% Rostered)

Luis Severino (SP – NYM)

Next Start: Wednesday 7/10 vs WAS

Luis Severino has played fairly well this season, especially in his last five games. During that span, he is 2-0 with three quality starts.

On the season, Severino has posted his worst strikeout-per-nine innings rate of his career (6.8), but also a modest 2.9 walks-per-nine rate. He has an impressive 50% groundball rate that ties Marcus Stroman for 10th best among qualified pitchers. And Severino owns a near league average HR/FB rate. He has done well to limit line drives and pulled balls, so you can trust the low BABIP. All of this is to say that his 3.42 ERA on the season looks right about where it should be, so fantasy managers should not worry too much about regression, especially in this matchup.

Washington has the second fewest homers in the league and possesses the sixth highest groundball rate, both of which play into Severino’s strengths. Plus the Nationals have the third fewest home runs against right-handed pitchers, so that should comfort fantasy managers looking to stream Severino.

Severino likely will lean on his sweeper in this game. It has a .132 batting average against, a 34% whiff rate, and a 23% putaway rate, and looks like this:

Luis Severino, Wicked 85mph Sweeper. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/Hl6lLQMTh9

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 13, 2024

The combination of a pitcher and an opponent with high groundball rates, along with a ridiculous sweeper, and a game in the fourth friendliest pitcher’s park this season should lead to a great result for Severino.

Fantasy managers should make him one of their priority pitching streamers for the upcoming week.

Widely Available Pitching Streamers (0%-30% Rostered)

Hayden Wesneski (SP – ChC)

Next Start: Sunday 7/7 vs LAA

Hayden Wesneski has spent most of this season in relief, starting five games of his 27 appearances. In his last matchup as a starter, he gave up five earned runs to a tough Phillies offense. Wesneski’s matchup against the Angels is much more palatable from a fantasy perspective, especially considering the circumstances.

Wesneski has a 9.1 K/9 rate and a 3.4 BB/9 rate, though he has some room for regression. He has a low BABIP and a high LOB%, although some positive regression to his 18% HR/FB rate should mitigate how much his ERA rises. Perhaps it may not even rise at all – his xFIP and SIERA are both better than his 4.14 ERA. And this matchup likely will improve some of his numbers rather than make them worse.

The Angels have the fifth worst run differential in baseball, as well as the seventh highest GB%. Wesneski has a respectable 42% GB rate, which should play well in this game. The 42% GB rate should not surprise many considering his most used pitch is his sweeper, and the results have been excellent. It has a .143 BAA, a 49% whiff rate, and a 28% putaway rate. Here is a look at it in action:

Hayden Wesneski, Wicked 82mph Sweeper…and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/80Mj2snm5t

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 3, 2024

Also working in Wesneski’s favor are the Angels’ struggles against righties. They have the eight worst AVG and the sixth most strikeouts against them. Plus this game will be played at Wrigley Field in Chicago, which is the ninth friendliest pitchers park in the league this season.

There is a lot to love about this matchup, making Wesneski one of the top pitching streamers for the week ahead.

Andrew Abbott (SP – CIN)

Next Start: Monday 7/7 vs COL and Saturday 7/13 vs MIA

Andrew Abbott has two great starts coming up against some of the worst teams in the league right now in Colorado and Miami, and he has been on fire lately. In his last nine games, Abbott has four quality starts and a 6-2 record. That is despite an oddly low 6.9 K/9 rate.

Abbott is a regression candidate thanks to a low BABIP, a high LOB%, and a low GB%, but we should not see much regression happen in these two starts.

Overall, Colorado and Miami own the second and third worst run differentials respectively. Colorado has the third most strikeouts and the third highest strikeout rate as an offense. They also have the fifth highest GB%, while Miami owns the highest GB% and the fewest home runs.

This should all be music to Abbott owners’ ears, especially considering that both teams are terrible against lefty hurlers in particular. Colorado has the tenth most strikeouts against them, while Miami is even worse. They have the third worst AVG, the fifth most strikeouts, the fifth fewest walks, and the third fewest homers against them.

Abbott will only cost you one pickup for the week, but offers up two prime matchups. For anyone looking for pitching streamers, Abbott is a must add wherever available.

Dean Kremer (SP – BAL)

Next Start: Tuesday 7/9 vs ChC

In his first game back since May 20, Dean Kremer tossed five innings and struck out eight batters, while giving up two hits and allowing two walks. He earned a win in that matchup, and has looked great on the season so far.

Kremer has a 9.3 K/9 rate, which is up for the third year in a row. He has a decent 3.2 BB/9 rate. His .216 BABIP is a bit low and suggests regression is on the way, but he has allowed extremely low line drive and pull rates, and if that continues his BABIP should not skyrocket, and neither should his ERA. In fact, his xFIP and SIERA hover just under his 3.93 ERA.

Kremer has a slightly elevated 15% HR/FB rate, which may see some positive regression in this matchup with the Cubs. They have the 10th worst run differential and the ninth fewest home runs overall. And if Kremer leans on his sinker and splitter combination in this matchup like he has throughout the season, the Cubs will continue having a hard time scoring runs.

His splitter has a .115 BAA and a 37% whiff rate, along with a negative four degree launch angle. Kremer’s splitter is his best out pitch, though, possessing a 33% whiff rate. Here is a look at his nasty splitter:

This was a NASTY splitter from Dean Kremer pic.twitter.com/zXaG3GQEbS

— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) July 4, 2024

The Cubs also have the sixth most strikeouts and the eighth highest K% overall, as well as the sixth worst AVG and the third most strikeouts against RHP. This all plays perfectly into Kremer’s strenghts.

Dean Kremer should be on the radar of every fantasy manager as one of the best pitching streamers for the upcoming matchup.

David Peterson (SP – NYM)

Next Start: Thursday 7/11 vs WAS

David Peterson has impressed since his season debut on May 29. Since then, he has posted a 3-0 record, with a 22:14 K:BB ratio and a 3.51 ERA.

While Peterson has tallied his worst K/9 rate of his career so far (5.9), he owns his best BB/9 rate of his career (3.7). He also has performed well in other areas. He has a .301 BABIP, along with a 79% LOB rate, a 53% GB rate, and an 11% HR/FB rate. While advanced ERA metrics expect regression to his ERA, those numbers suggest he has pitched on par with what he should be doing so far. Still, this is not a matchup where fantasy managers should worry about his ERA ballooning.

Washington has struggled to score runs and has a high groundball rate, which play into Peterson’s strengths, much like his rotation mate Luis Severino.

Peterson has a wicked changeup that should give the Nats trouble. It has a .120 BAA, with a 25% whiff rate. The Nationals have the sixth worst AVG and the second fewest homers against LHP, and that changeup in particular should give them fits.

Fantasy managers should consider Peterson one of the top pitching streamers for the upcoming matchup.

Sean Manaea (SP – NYM)

Next Start: Friday 7/12 vs COL

Sean Manaea has an excellent matchup against Colorado in week 16. He is coming off a seven inning gem against the Nationals – another struggling offense.

As detailed above with Abbott, Colorado has been terrible both overall and against lefty pitchers in particular. That make this a matchup where Manaea should shine. He has a lot of strengths that line up against Colorado’s weaknesses.

Manaea has an 8.7 K/9 rate and a 3.8 BB/9 rate. He has a modest .283 BABIP and 72% LOB rate, showing that he does well at limiting baserunners and scorers. That is something he should be able to do in this game, especially if he leans on his sweeper. It is one of the best in baseball, possessing a .163 BAA, a 45% whiff rate, and a 22% putaway rate. Take a look:

Sean Manaea, Wipeout 81mph Sweeper. 🌊 pic.twitter.com/UcasiDHRpM

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 3, 2024

Colorado ranks as one of the worst offenses across the board, and plays this game in one of the best pitcher’s parks in the league. Fantasy managers looking for pitching streamers should make Manaea a top target for the upcoming week.