ESPN Player Rater Retrospective

It can often be difficult to place into context how well (or how poorly) certain players have performed recently. A glance at ESPN’s Player Rater, which attempts to quantify a player’s overall fantasy value by analyzing their performance in each facet of the game, can focus targets for fantasy owners looking for help on the waiver wire. Of course, when dealing with small sample sizes, a player’s results can be fluky, but placement at or near the top of these lists could be indicative of a substantive change to a player’s profile. Here are the top 10 players at each position for the past 15 days, accordingly to the ESPN Player Rater.

Catcher

1. Gary Sanchez
2. Mike Zunino
3. Buster Posey
4. Austin Hedges
5. Brian McCann
6. Elias Diaz
7. Jason Castro
8. J.T. Realmuto
9. Salvador Perez
10. Yadier Molina
Somewhat lost in the Giants’ disastrous season has been the continued brilliance of Buster Posey in 2017. He’s run a .391/.442/.543 line over the past two weeks with a 5:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio that is actually worse than his season-long mark. That .391 batting average  is, of course, unsustainable moving forward, but his ability to avoid strikeouts and pop-ups (he currently has the lowest strikeout rate in baseball this year, and he has not hit a single infield fly all season) make him as strong a bet to hit for a high batting average as anyone in baseball. Salvador Perez has hit .318/.333/.545 over the past two weeks. While he has drawn only one walk in 46 plate appearances, which limits his run-scoring upside, his aggressiveness has also manifested itself in a miniscule 8.7% strikeout rate that should aid his batting average moving forward. Perez’s hard contact rate, pull rate, and fly ball rate are all at career-high levels this season, making him quite desirable from a power perspective for a catcher as well, even factoring in his pitcher-friendly home park. Austin Hedges’ 19.6 HR/FB%  is unsustainable, particularly in Petco Park, and his poor plate discipline will always make him a low-average hitter, but he runs a high fly ball rate and has already set his career high in home runs and isolated power, making him a potential bet for cheap power.

First Base

1. Paul Goldschmidt
2. Joey Votto
3. Matt Adams
4. Ryan Zimmerman
5. Cody Bellinger
6. Daniel Murphy
7. Danny Valencia
8. Ryon Healy
9. Justin Smoak
10. Yonder Alonso
Matt Adams’ production has never quite lived up to his obvious power upside, but a trade out of St. Louis may have reignited his career. Adams hit .298/.365/.649 with six home runs in the last two weeks; since being traded to Atlanta on May 20, Adams has hit .277/.327/.606, aided by a much more hitter-friendly home park, and potentially (although entirely speculatively), by a move back to his natural position of first base after an ill-fated outfield experiment. While Adams’ fly ball percentage is actually down a bit this season, his home run rate should be comfortably higher given his home park and slight uptick in hard contact. Much of the attention surrounding Cody Bellinger is focused on his prodigious power, and rightfully so. Bellinger currently leads all of baseball in home runs per at-bat, just narrowly hitting homers more frequently than Aaron Judge is in the Bronx. Bellinger’s six home runs over the past two weeks are mostly responsible for vaulting him near the top of the Player Rater. That said, another aspect of Bellinger’s profile noted that separated him from all other first base prospects was his athleticism, with scouts noting that he has the pure speed to play the outfield, perhaps even center field, competently. That speed manifested itself recently, with Bellinger stealing three bases. Although he has never been a strong stolen base threat in the minors, his athleticism gives him power-speed upside unparalleled by most first basemen. His strikeout and fly ball rates are astronomical, so he likely closely resembles the .238 hitter that he has been recently, but he looks like an elite power hitter moving forward.

Second Base

1. Trea Turner
2. Starlin Castro
3. Daniel Murphy
4. Howie Kendrick
5. Jonathan Schoop
6. Dee Gordon
7. Scooter Gennett
8. Brian Dozier
9. Chris Taylor
10. Jose Pirela
As noted here last week, both Trea Turner and Dee Gordon have run their way to the top of this board and neither player has shown any signs of slowing down, stealing four and three bases, respectively, in the past week. Starlin Castro has seen a slight improvement in his plate discipline and contact quality this season, although neither fully explains his .051 jump in batting average on balls in play this season. Regardless, while his .323 batting average is likely to regress somewhat, he does seem to have matured a bit as a hitter, putting him on base to set a career high in home runs. Hitting alongside Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks and Gary Sanchez should enable him to continue to accrue RBI moving forward as well. Howie Kendrick’s .362 batting average and five stolen bases have placed him fourth on the Rater at the position, but, while he has certainly avoided weak contact recently, he is striking out at a league average rate and his ground ball rate over that time sits at 61.1%. Should he continue to hit grounders well all over the field, as he has done recently, he will likely continue to hit for a solid average, but his upside in all other categories seems lacking. On a poor offensive team and lacking in power, Kendrick probably will not rack up enough runs or RBI to remain fantasy relevant, and his stolen base total is also likely fickle, as he seems unlikely to develop into a legitimate stolen base threat for the first time in his career at age 33. In eight games since being recalled from Triple-A El Paso, Jose Pirela has run a .484/.543/.806 line for San Diego. That is much too small a sample size to make any significant judgments (other than the obvious one that he certainly will not continue to produce at this level), although it is worth noting that Pirela has cut his swing rate by six percentage points from last season and had shown somewhat improved plate discipline in Triple-A prior to his promotion.

Third Base

1. Eduardo Nunez
2. Josh Donaldson
3. Mike Moustakas
4. Kyle Seager
5. Danny Valencia
6. Ryon Healy
7. Hernan Perez
8. Nicholas Castellanos
9. Franchy Cordero
10. Travis Shaw
[the_ad id=”384″]I noted last week that Eduardo Nunez was somewhat surprisingly not stealing bases recently. He has, however, stolen four in the past week, which, when coupled with a .351 batting average over the last 15 days, placed him at the top of the positional Rater. Although he is a legitimate stolen base threat, he continues to pull a high number of ground balls, casting doubt on his ability to maintain this offensive production. Personally, I considered Nicholas Castellanos to be a top sleeper candidate entering the season on the strength of his exit velocity readings and prospect pedigree. Castellanos’ contact quality has consistently ranked near the top of the leaderboards, with a prodigious ability to avoid making weak contact. That said, while his plate discipline has improved slightly this season, he still has an above-average strikeout rate and a below-average walk rate. Over the past two weeks, though, he has run a .319/.385/.660 line, cutting his strikeout rate to around league-average in the process, while maintaining his top-line contact quality. His 44.4% HR/FB rate is unsustainable, of course, but his peripheral statistics, and his placement in the middle of a quality lineup, still make him a potential breakout candidate. Another recent Padre promotion, Franchy Cordero has run a .327/.375/.635 to start his big-league career, thanks largely to a .500 BABIP. Cordero has made some authoritative contact, offers positional versatility (he qualifies as an outfielder in ESPN leagues as well), and seemingly has an assortment of average tools. He has, however, an ugly history of strikeouts in the minor leagues, and his current 37.5% strikeout rate in the big leagues is untenable. Until he demonstrates that he can consistently make contact, he is likely no more than an upside flyer in the deepest of leagues.

Shortstop

1. Trea Turner
2. Eduardo Nunez
3. Andrelton Simmons
4. Elvis Andrus
5. Didi Gregorius
6. Tim Beckham
7. Zack Cozart
8. Dansby Swanson
9. Carlos Correa
10. Jose Peraza
Didi Gregorius has hit .400 over the past two weeks, although he has curiously done so while making quite a bit of soft contact and not drawing walks. His swinging strike rate and soft contact rate are both up quite a bit from recent seasons, and his .362 BABIP is likely to fall closer to the .290 figure that he ran last season. Gregorius still limits strikeouts and hits for some power in a very strong lineup, but he may be a candidate to market with regression seemingly inevitable. Very few players have been as disappointing this season as Dansby Swanson, although his .333/.386/.529 line recently offers reason for cautious optimism. Swanson has made authoritative contact, drawn walks and limited strikeouts during this recent run. Billed as a potential five-tool contributor, however, he continues to hit far too many ground balls to be a real power threat, and he has stolen only one base all season.

Outfield

1. Trea Turner
2. Aaron Judge
3. George Springer
4. Andrew McCutchen
5. Kole Calhoun
6. Marcell Ozuna
7. Eduardo Nunez
8. Eric Young
9. Matt Holliday
10. Justin Upton
While Turner’s stolen bases have placed him at the top of the Rater, Aaron Judge has dominated in every other category. The best player in baseball this season, Judge has continued to dominate, and while his 29% strikeout rate for the year could be some cause for concern, his ability to limit chases, hit for power to all fields, and, somewhat unbelievably, never hit pop-ups , make him arguably the top fantasy player at the moment. While Andrew McCutchen’s time as a competent center fielder is clearly over, he has shown some signs of returning to top levels offensively. He has run a fantastic .408/.483/.694 line over the past two weeks, and while that has largely come at the expense of using the whole field, his walk and strikeout rates recently more closely resemble those run by the MVP-level McCutchen than last season’s slightly-above replacement-level version. Arguably the most surprising player on the list is Eric Young, who has offered the Angels Mike Trout-level production in Trout’s absence. That said, his contact quality is nearly identical to his previous levels, with his success driven by a 27.3% HR/FB rate nearly ten times his career mark and a .351 BABIP well above his career marks. Young, though, was a consistent 30 stolen base threat in his prime, and could be a decent add for owners seeking cheap steals, but he certainly should not be counted on to produce anywhere near this level moving forward.

Starting Pitchers

1. Robbie Ray
2. Max Scherzer
3. Carlos Martinez
4. Clayton Kershaw
5. Edinson Volquez
6. Chase Anderson
7. Sean Manaea
8. Luis Severino
9. Jason Vargas
10. C.C. Sabathia
Robbie Ray, Sean Manaea and Jason Vargas have been boosted by winning three games apiece. Ray, in particular, has been utterly dominant, allowing only a Hunter Renfroe home run over those three starts, while striking out 40.2% of opposing hitters. He has stranded every baserunner that has reached against him, which he cannot continue to do, and there may be some strength of schedule concerns, given that he faced Pittsburgh, San Diego and Milwaukee, but this level of dominance has solidified Ray as a top-flight arm. C.C. Sabathia had recorded a 59.2% ground ball against rate over his last three starts while issuing all of one walk against 66 opposing hitters over that time. Sabathia continues to induce chases and has resisted a stark velocity drop over time, despite being nearly 37 years old. Unfortunately, he was forced to exit yesterday’s start with a strained hamstring and seems likely to require a DL stint.

Relief Pitcher

1. Corey Knebel
2. Kenley Jansen
3. Roberto Osuna
4. Craig Kimbrel
5. Addison Reed
6. Fernando Rodney
7. Dustin McGowan
8. Joe Smith
9. Felipe Rivero
10. A.J. Ramos
The reliever rankings inherently rely on miniscule sample sizes and save opportunities, not coincidentally paralleling many of the hottest teams in baseball. Kenley Jansen, Roberto Osuna and Craig Kimbrel, of course, are elite relievers closing on strong teams. Corey Knebel has absurdly struck out 45.7% of opposing hitters this season, staking the claim to Milwaukee’s closing job in the process, while Felipe Rivero has done the same in Pittsburgh on the a 29% strikeout rate and a fantastic 63.9% ground-ball rate against him. Dustin McGowan only allowed one earned run in his last 10 innings, making him a surprising inclusion on this list, although he has accomplished this by stranding all of the baserunners that he has allowed and by limiting hitters to a .200 BABIP against him. Without a significant uptick in strikeouts, he is not particularly worth attending to.