As we enter the final stretch of the fantasy basketball season, it becomes a very crucial time in dynasty leagues. After the All-Star break, NBA teams out of the playoff race can become a gold mine for fantasy production. As more teams fall further out of playoff contention, more star players will be rested, therefore creating more opportunities for rookies to break out. The NBA allows teams to rest one star per game for load management purposes. It’s a perfect time for these teams to rest players and get a chance to see what they have in their draft picks. I will take a look at several rookies with a chance to break out over the final two months.
Potential Breakout Rookies for Dynasty Basketball Leagues
Kris Murray, SF, POR
The Trail Blazers are nowhere close to making the playoffs. This situation gives Portland rookie, Kris Murray, some serious breakout potential. One of their top priorities should be seeing what they have in their 23rd overall draft selection. Shaedon Sharpe could likely be out for the remainder of the season, which opens up more development time for Murray. Also, there’s a good chance Jerami Grant will receive some rest days to close out the season. If that happens, Kris Murray would get all the minutes he could handle. In the three games he received at least 24 minutes, he averaged 11.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.7 three-pointers and 1.7 steals.
Jalen Wilson, PF, BKN
Even though the Brooklyn Nets sit at a 21-34 record, they are only 2.5 games out of the playoffs. They recently fired their head coach, Jacque Vaughn, so it will be interesting to see how things shake out from a fantasy perspective with the change in leadership. Jalen Wilson was the Nets second-round draft pick out of the University of Kansas. Since Royce O’Neale was dealt at the trade deadline, he has seen a bit more action on the court. He has played in the last six contests, receiving at least 18 minutes in five of those games. In three games where Wilson has received at least 30 minutes of playing time, he averaged 12.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.3 three-pointers.
Taylor Hendricks, PF, UTA
Hendricks was selected ninth overall in the 2023 draft, but he has only appeared in 18 games this season. He has the second-fewest games played among the top-10 draft picks from his class. That trend is starting to change, as he has played in their last five games. He received at least 15 minutes of playing time in each of those games. Utah shipped off Kelly Olynyk at the trade deadline to open up minutes for the rookie out of the University of Central Florida. In five games where he received at least 21 minutes of court time, he averaged 10.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.0 steals, and 1.6 three-pointers.
Brice Sensabaugh, SF, UTA
The Jazz are only four games out of the play-in game, but they have lost their last five games. If they continue to slide further out of the playoff race, Brice Sensabaugh is a name to monitor after the All-Star break. He has only played in seven games all year, but three of those have come in the last four contests. Sensabaugh also received his most minutes this season in their most recent game. He was Utah’s second pick of the first round after they selected Hendricks in the top-10. Sensabaugh was the leading scorer for Ohio State last season, despite only averaging 24.5 minutes per game. If the Jazz throw in the towel and start to rest Lauri Markkanen, John Collins, Jordan Clarkson or Collin Sexton down the stretch, Sensabaugh will reap the rewards.
Noah Clowney, PF, BKN
Clowney is the second Brooklyn Net on this list. He was selected 21st overall in the 2023 draft. Brooklyn will likely have to fall further out of the playoff race for Clowney to see some serious action. Although, he has seen the court in four of their last six games. It could be a direct correlation to Dorian Finney-Smith playing 20 minutes or less in their last six games. If that downward trend continues for Finney-Smith, then Noah Clowney would be one of the main beneficiaries. In the two games he has received at least 10 minutes of playing time, he averaged 11.0 points and 4.0 rebounds.
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