By the look of things, Jacksonville is all in on Gardner Minshew. Barring a major signing, Minshew and his mustache are calling the shots in 2020. The Jaguars head into the season looking to escape from the basement of the AFC South. While the Jags aim to prove themselves, Bill O’Brien’s meltdown this offseason leaves the division up for grabs. The Houston Texans hope they can repeat their success, but the Titans and the Colts will try to close the gap between them and the division champs. So, what did each team do in the draft to better their chances of success next season? More importantly, how do their draft selections affect your fantasy team? Hang with me as we navigate through our 2020 Post-Draft Fantasy Previews. Let’s dive into the AFC South!
Mick Ciallela is your guy for NFC previews, and you can check out my AFC North preview here!
Say what?! Your dynasty football league didn’t use Fantrax last year? Unthinkable! Check out all the features Fantrax has to offer, and we think you’ll be singing a different tune for the coming season.
Post-Draft Fantasy Previews: AFC South
Houston Texans
Fans in Houston are busy splashing cold water in their faces hoping to wake up from the nightmare that’s been this offseason. Bill O’Brien shipped away DeAndre Hopkins and a fourth-round pick to the Cardinals in exchange for David Johnson, a 2020 second-round pick, plus a 2021 fourth-round pick. Trying to recoup from the loss of Hopkins, the Texans traded away a second-round pick to the Rams to grab Brandin Cooks. When he’s healthy, Cooks is a solid receiver, albeit nowhere near Hopkins’ level. This is a risky transaction considering Cooks’ concussion history.
The Texans are a team that feels perpetually stuck in the good, not great, tier of the NFL. Stripping Deshaun Watson of his most reliable target certainly doesn’t give them that much-needed bump into contender status.
Quarterback
In a since-deleted Twitter post, Deshaun Watson’s trainer showed the star quarterback’s look of confusion and displeasure upon hearing the news that his top target had just become an Arizona Cardinal. In Hopkins’ three years with Watson as the starter, he averaged 105 receptions for 1,372 yards and 10 touchdowns. His presence in the passing game last season resulted in nearly a 30% target share. No matter how you slice it, Houston’s current group of receivers won’t return value on Hopkins’ vacated targets.
Surely O’Brien helped his quarterback in the draft, right? Well, if you consider drafting Rhode Island’s Isaiah Coulter in the fifth-round help, then sure, he did just that. Coulter won’t even be a blip on the radar for fantasy this season, and he certainly doesn’t provide hope for Watson. Following this offseason, Watson has suffered a major loss in fantasy value. With his talent, he’s still a QB1, but now there’s a clear separation between him and the elite options.
Running Back
One of Houston’s only post-draft winners is David Johnson. The Texans didn’t draft a running back this season, which makes sense considering what they gave away to bring Johnson in. It’s going to be a tale of two Johnsons in Houston’s backfield this year. Duke Johnson will get his fair share of targets on passing downs, but O’Brien insists that David Johnson is a three-down back. It’s unclear exactly what kind of split in the passing game we can expect from the two backs, but David is going to see more than a measly 10 receptions, which is what Carlos Hyde put up last season. While Johnson adds a second receiving threat in the backfield, this is still a team that only completed 54 passes to Hyde and Duke Johnson last year.
Slot David Johnson in as a mid to low-end RB2 with upside. He hasn’t been a game-changing fantasy presence since 2016, but he was serviceable in 2018. Johnson hasn’t averaged over four yards-per-carry since the aforementioned 2016 season. His problem has been his lengthy injury history. He hasn’t looked like himself in years, but if he’s healthy, his upside can’t be ignored. If Johnson can bounce back t0 even 80% of who he was in Arizona, he’ll be a steal in drafts.
Wide Receiver
For as much as I’ve criticized Houston’s receiving corps, I can guarantee you that a fantasy WR2 is on their roster. When you have a quarterback like Deshaun Watson, he’s going to find production. Houston isn’t completely devoid of talent either. Before last year’s enigma of a season, Brandin Cooks was fresh off the heels of four consecutive seasons with 1,000+ yards. Their other option in Will Fuller has also flashed his talent several times on the field. Just last season he put up a 53.7 point performance in PPR. Fuller would be a WR2 lock for me if not for his serious injury concerns. In his four seasons in the league, he’s already missed 22 games.
In light of recent rumors, Cooks and Fuller may now have some added appeal. Reportedly, Philly had shown interest in Kenny Stills via trade. While that storyline didn’t play out, Stills’ role in the offense now comes into question. If the team was ready to jettison him, how high can they possibly view him? If he’s present, he’ll still be involved, but it appears they may have already been planning for life without him.
The bottom line is that Hopkins left 150 targets behind him. There isn’t a dominant WR1 on their team, but this is an offense that will throw the ball plenty. Someone is going to have production. It isn’t far-fetched to think that both Cooks and Fuller could finish the year in the top 24. Both receivers are going to have a similar ADP come draft season, but if you can get one later than the other, take the value.
Tight End
The Texans didn’t look at the tight end position, which makes Darren Fells a winner by default. As mentioned earlier, there are 150 targets up for grabs. Among those targets, however, 18 come inside the red-zone. Hopkins and Fells were the team leaders in that area of the field. Hopkins caught seven touchdowns to Fells’ 11. Fells is now indisputably their best red-zone weapon, and his touchdown total now feels more repeatable. Fells may not be the most consistent option, but his touchdown upside will lead to a TE1 finish this season.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are a sneaky contender in 2020. Indianapolis started last season at 5-2, but they couldn’t overcome injuries and Jacoby Brissett’s poor late-season play. Their roster is pretty complete from top to bottom, and adding stability at quarterback with Philip Rivers makes Indianapolis a legitimate threat. The veteran quarterback will have plenty of time to operate in the pocket behind arguably the league’s best offensive line. With a healthy T.Y. Hilton and a dangerous backfield, the AFC South had better keep tabs on Indy.
Quarterback
Frank Reich and Chris Ballard approached this offseason with a “win now” mindset. Part of that approach included bringing in a veteran presence to take the reins of their offense. The Colts have talent, that much is certain, but it’s hard to tell which version of Rivers we’re going to see. Last season, Rivers threw 20 interceptions and only 23 touchdowns. He threw a touchdown on only 3.9% of his passes, which is the lowest that number has been since he became a starter.
Rivers hasn’t had solid protection from his offensive line in years. Last season, the Chargers were exceptionally bad. Pro Football Focus graded their unit as 29th in the league. That’s not to say the offensive line was solely responsible for Rivers’ poor play, as he’s overcome a lackluster line before. Giving him more time in the pocket doesn’t hurt though.
In a standard, one quarterback league, Rivers shouldn’t be considered as your starting option. Frankly, I wouldn’t draft him at all. If you’re going to take a quarterback late, you may as well take someone who has the potential for a blowup season. Rivers can still be a great weekly streamer, and in a two-quarterback league, he’s a safe QB2.
The team’s fourth-round draft pick Jacob Eason out of Washington is a late-round dynasty stash in deeper leagues. He’s got a strong arm and is capable of making any throw, but he’s going to be a project for the organization.
Running Back
The Colts made waves in the draft when they traded up three spots in the second round to take Jonathan Taylor. In college, Taylor put up 50 touchdowns and just shy of 2,000 yards-per-season in three years. He’s going to have an immediate opportunity for significant usage in this backfield. His only hindrance is Marlon Mack, who’s coming off of a season where he averaged 4.4 yards-per-carry and scored eight touchdowns. Mack is set to be a free agent next season, and it’s evident that he’s not a part of the team’s future. That being said, he’s still a productive runner, and given Taylor’s extensive workload in college, Mack is going to take away some of Taylor’s work.
The ceiling Taylor has doesn’t allow him to be a top-10 back this year. The Colts have a three-headed monster in their backfield. On top of Mack eating into Taylor’s carries, Nyheim Hines is still going to be a factor in the passing game. Philip Rivers has long relied on his running backs to catch passes, and Hines is easily his best option. Last season, Mack only hauled in 14 receptions, while Hines grabbed 44. Taylor is a plug and play option in fantasy, but don’t expect RB1 production just yet. He’s a solid RB2 with top 15 upside.
Wide Receiver
Philip Rivers is an upgrade over Jacoby Brissett, that much is clear. How much of an upgrade he’ll be remains to be seen. Despite Rivers’ age, he can still launch a deep ball, and he’s more comfortable going downfield than Brissett. His knack for seeking big plays through the air benefits a deep threat like T.Y. Hilton. Injuries have bogged Hilton down over the years, but he’s only two seasons removed from a 1,270-yard performance. Should he play 16 games in 2020, he easily possesses WR1 potential.
The other options in Indianapolis don’t have the same inherent upside as Hilton, but Parris Campbell is interesting nonetheless. He’s the primary slot receiver in Indy, and although he’s no Keenan Allen, Rivers has had success throwing to the slot. I wouldn’t consider Campbell in a standard league, but I’d pull the trigger as a late-round flier in PPR. Michael Pittman Jr., on the other hand, won’t be a major player in 2020. It’s not that he lacks talent, rookie receivers just rarely make a splash in fantasy. Every season there are a select few guys, but I wouldn’t count on a rookie who’s the third option at best in the offense.
Tight End
How exciting was it for Jack Doyle when Rivers signed with Indy? Rivers leans on his tight ends often, and Doyle has already proven himself to be a viable target. Things got sticky, however, after Trey Burton joined the team following his release from the Bears. Even after the signing, Doyle still represents a great double-digit round pick that could easily end up as a TE1. Just don’t forget, Trey Burton was once given a sizable contract by Chicago after flashing in Philadelphia. Poor quarterback play and health have masked his potential, but his signing puts him in the TE2 spot on the team.
Jacksonville Jaguars
So much for Nick Foles’ run with the Jaguars. After signing a massive deal last offseason, Foles already finds himself on a new roster to start the year. Rather than keeping Foles around, the Jags have elected to see what they have in Gardner Minshew. There’s always a chance that they sign a veteran like Andy Dalton, but Minshew will be given the first opportunity. If Minshew progresses this year, Jacksonville may have their franchise guy.
Quarterback
In his rookie season, Minshew was the QB12 before Foles returned from his injury in Week 10. When Minshew took the job back, the rest of his season wasn’t as promising as his first nine games.
Jacksonville hired Jay Gruden as their offensive coordinator this season. His presence should have a positive impact on Minshew given Gruden’s history with young quarterbacks. Hiring Gruden and giving him another weapon in the receiving game with Laviska Shenault Jr. adds to his fantasy appeal. The industry as a whole is low on Minshew, but I think he’s a sneaky QB2 that will serve as a great streaming candidate. Pairing him with a safe, late-round quarterback is a viable option for fantasy owners that don’t like taking a quarterback with an early pick.
Running Back
One would be hard-pressed to find a more polarizing fantasy player right now than Leonard Fournette. After unsuccessfully attempting to shop Fournette on the trading block, the Jaguars neglected to take a running back with one of their 12 picks. The team could always grab a veteran running back like Devonta Freeman or Carlos Hyde to come in and compete, but that’s an unlikely scenario. If this backfield looks the way it does now when the preseason starts, Fournette is a bonafide RB1. Keep in mind, he’s in a contract year. If he wants a lucrative new deal, he needs to produce on the field.
For a player who received 341 touches, scoring only three touchdowns is unfathomable. He’s due for major touchdown regression. With a sizable workload like his, expecting double-digit touchdowns isn’t unreasonable. You may not feel great drafting him, but rest assured, he’s going to be a difference-maker.
Wide Receiver
Initially, I wasn’t in love with D.J. Chark’s potential to have a great follow-up season to last year’s breakout campaign. Expecting an incoming rookie scared me away from what may have only been a flash in the pan performance. Drafting Laviska Shenault Jr. in the second-round does more good for Minshew than it harms Chark, I realized. I saw an interesting statistic on Fansided that stated only 20 receivers since 1950 have put up over 1,000 yards in their rookie season. The number is now 21 after A.J. Brown’s performance last year. Reflecting on that, Shenault Jr. won’t stand in Chark’s way, but he’s now a major thorn in DeDe Westbrook’s side, who I wouldn’t consider drafting in any format. Chark is still a low-end WR2 with top 20 upside, while Shenault Jr. is a late-round dart throw. Although he’s a great round two pick in dynasty.
Tight End
There’s no reason to get excited about Tyler Eifert this year. He’s only had one fantasy-relevant season on the back of 13 touchdowns. That same year he caught 52 receptions for 615 yards, and he hasn’t topped either number to date. The Jaguars only spent a round six pick on a tight end, but that’s not enough to make Eifert relevant. The one good thing you can say about him is he’s a threat in the red zone, but he won’t be on any of my teams.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans did what they needed to and made sure Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry didn’t leave town. Their out of this world efficiency is untenable, but their foundation remains strong. Tannehill came into his own after replacing a benched Marcus Mariota in Week 6. What he brought to the offense was the threat of a passing game that could go over the top of opposing defenses. Once secondaries were forced to respect that, things opened up for Derrick Henry’s monster stretch. There aren’t many fantasy implications to discuss, but I’ll give you a brief forecast of their fantasy value.
Quarterback
From Weeks 7-17, Tannehill was the QB3. He played lights out football and provided his offense with a leader. What makes Tannehill a great late-round quarterback with high upside is his safe floor due to his rushing ability. His legs make him a weapon as a runner. He added four touchdowns on the ground to complement his passing performance. A.J. Brown provides him with a true No. 1 receiver, and I expect Jonnu Smith to step up and become a frequent contributor in the offense as well. Both of these guys offer explosiveness and have the ability to break off a big play at any time. Tannehill isn’t going to finish as a top-three quarterback, but it’s safe to say that he has top-eight upside. If you can get that kind of potential in the double-digit rounds, why pass that up?
Running Back
Is there any question about what’s going to happen here? Derrick Henry is going to feast. He recently signed his franchise tag, and he’s hoping for a long-term deal. His agenda aside, if the team plans on moving on, they’re going to run him into the ground. No matter how you look at it, he’s going to be fed the ball over and over again. He’ll be a first-round pick in both formats, although he’s better in standard leagues.
The Titans acquired Darrynton Evans out of Appalachian State in the third round. He’ll fit into the Dion Lewis role and serve as a change of pace back on passing downs. What makes him a great pick for the Titans is his outside zone runner makeup. This fits perfectly into their scheme. Not only is he a great handcuff to grab if you’re a Henry owner, but he’s a speculative dynasty rockstar if the Titans decide to part ways with Henry next offseason.
Wide Receiver
There’s no way of sugarcoating this. Every wide receiver other than A.J. Brown is going to be a fantasy disappointment. The fantasy community has waited years for Corey Davis to breakout. Unless he has a miraculous ascension like DeVante Parker, he’s going down as an outright draft bust. The Titans offense isn’t predicated around the passing game, to begin with, and I expect that Brown and Jonnu Smith will be Tannehill’s primary options. Brown isn’t a volume receiver, but his raw talent and ability make him a threat anytime the ball is in his hands. He became a fantasy darling overnight, so his draft price is going to be interesting. If his ADP doesn’t flirt with the late second to the early third rounds, feel confident drafting him. Pencil him in as a solid WR2 on your roster.
Tight End
Among the late-round tight end options this season, Jonnu Smith is one of my favorites. He doesn’t have any rookie competition, which skyrockets his dynasty value. Just like A.J. Brown, Smith won’t be a high-reception player, but his yards-after-catch total was ridiculous. He finished second among tight ends with 7.54 YAC. He averaged 12.5 yards-per-reception, and he’s a homerun threat who’s going to nauseate secondaries. If you miss out on Kittle or Kelce, and you aren’t inclined to draft a mid-tier tight end, keep your eyes on Smith as a late-round pickup.
Stay tuned for more post-draft fantasy previews over the next two weeks!
Fantrax was one of the fastest-growing fantasy sites of 2019, and we’re not letting our foot off the pedal now! With multi-team trades, designated commissioner/league managers, and drag/drop easy click methods, Fantrax is sure to excite the serious fantasy sports fan – sign up now for a free year at Fantrax.com.