Post-Hype Sleepers are players that have received high expectations in the past, and not quite lived up to them. Now, their value does not reflect the upside that the player possesses for fantasy baseball leagues. The below three pitchers fit that criterion. These pitchers are off to hot-starts in the 2020 season, and their talent indicates that they are here to stay going forward. This article particularly focuses on post-hype sleepers in dynasty leagues, so all involved are in their mid-twenties or younger.
Post-Hype Sleepers: The Pitchers
Corbin Burnes – Milwaukee Brewers
Prior to 2020
Corbin Burnes’ stock could not have been any lower following the 2019 season. He gave up 17 home runs in only 49 innings pitched, good for a league-worst 38.6% home run to fly-ball rate. His ERA was an unfathomable 8.82, and his WHIP was a grotesque 1.82. Without piling on too much, it was a bad season for the 25-year-old Burnes.
The former top-100 prospect showed a noticeable trend in 2019. Of his 17 home runs allowed, 13 came against his four-seam fastball. With a .425 batting average against, an .823 SLG, and an average exit velocity of 95.2 mph, it was baffling Burnes threw his four-seamer 52.5 percent of the time. After all, his other pitches performed quite well.
His slider was a borderline elite pitch in 2019. Thrown 31 percent of the time, it generated a .180 batting average against, a 54.8% chase rate, and a 58.0% whiff rate. Thrown at 88-mph, he gets 2.2-inches more drop and 2.7-inches more break than the average slider with similar velocity. His changeup and curveball generated solid swing and miss numbers as well. If he had a pitch that he could rely on to cut his four-seam usage, there is huge upside in Burnes…
2020 & Future Outlook
That is exactly what we are seeing in 2020. Burnes has started throwing his cutter more often, and it has shown immense benefits. Now his second most used pitch, Burnes has elite numbers in a small sample with the pitch. It has a .091 batting average against, a .091 SLG, and a 45.0% Whiff rate. The reason this pitch performs so well could be associated with it being the fastest cutter in baseball, thrown at 93.8-mph, and generating the second-highest spin rate in the league.
Through 12.1 innings, Burnes looks like a new pitcher. He has a 2.92 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and most important, has only given up one home run. While he is not currently in the starting rotation, that should change in the near future with pitchers like Josh Lindblom and Eric Lauer in front of him. Now is the time to buy low on Burnes in dynasty leagues, because he has the upside of a top 15 starting pitcher in baseball if everything clicks. Burnes epitomizes the huge potential value post-hype sleepers can reward you with.
If you like this take, you’ll love Justin’s look at post-hype sleepers on the offensive side of things!
German Marquez – Colorado Rockies
Prior to 2020
It is hard to believe that Colorado Rockies ace German Marquez is only 25 years old. The right-handed Marquez has been a roller coaster ride this far into his career, as is almost always the case with pitchers who call Coors Field home. He has had an ERA as high as 4.76 last season, to as low as 3.77 in 2018.
Coming off of that 2018 season, Marquez was being hyped as a potential fantasy ace in the off-season. He had 230 strikeouts and a 3.10 xFIP, which completely supported those who planted their flag in the Marquez hype. He was being dubbed as a top 15 pitcher for fantasy purposes with his ability to throw his fastball 96 mph and throwing hitters off with two excellent breaking pitches in his curveball and slider.
Then the 2019 season happened. Marquez was hit hard throughout the season, particularly at his dreaded home ball park in Colorado. In 73.1 innings pitched at home, Marquez sported an ugly 6.26 ERA. His road splits were that of an ace caliber pitcher though. He had a 3.67 ERA and 103 strikeouts in 100.2 innings pitched. Of course, there is nothing Marquez can do about pitching in Coors Field while he is with the Rockies. There are ways to limit the damage done at his home field though.
2020 & Future Outlook
To limit the damage done at his home field, Marquez has to throw his four-seamer less, and his curveball and slider more. His curveball was a dominant pitch the two seasons prior, producing two consecutive seasons of a batting average below .150 against the pitch.
His slider is the wildcard. In his successful 2018 season, his slider induced a .162 batting average against, and a 42.4% whiff rate. In 2019, he gave up 11 home runs with the pitch, had a .292 batting average against, and a 38.7% whiff rate.
Due to the poor 2019 season, and the hype that Marquez received, he can now be classified as a post-hype sleeper. In 2020, he seems to be waking up. Marquez has been off to a great start through four games, possessing a 2.08 ERA and a healthy 26.5% strikeout rate. Most important, his slider has returned to form. He currently has yet to give up a hit with the pitch and has an eye-popping 52.1% whiff rate.
If Marquez has returned to his 2018, and he has shown signs of that being the case, he is all of a sudden in contention to be a fantasy ace. He will have to pitch his way through the aforementioned Coors Field every other start, but he has proven capable over an entire season once before. For dynasty purposes, we can only dream of his potential if he was ever traded to a different team. Even if that never happens, Marquez has the upside to be buying in your dynasty leagues.
Dylan Bundy – Los Angeles Angels
Prior to 2020
This one is more like a post-post-post-post hype sleeper. Dylan Bundy was the first-round pick of the Baltimore Orioles all the way back in 2011. There was so much hype around Bundy in the Orioles system that they let Bundy come up to the majors in his age-19 season. He only made two bullpen appearances, but it showed what the Orioles plans were for the then-teenage Bundy.
The following season, Bundy had to have Tommy John surgery halfway through the year. This severely stunted his growth, as he missed all of 2013, and pitched all of 2014 and 2015 in the minors. He finally made his debut in 2016 for the Orioles, he had been nothing short of bad since he had been in the majors. Between 2016 and 2019, Bundy was a below-average pitcher in many facets.
So what has been the issue with the former high-pedigree prospect? Well first of all he has pitched for the Baltimore Orioles, who do not know how to develop good pitchers. Secondly, he simply relied too heavily on his fastball, and his fastball is nothing special. Topping out at 94-mph post-Tommy John in 2016, the pitch has gradually decreased down to a relatively slow 91-mph. It has been hit hard throughout his career, as evidenced by the below xwOBA chart by pitch type below.
When looking at that chart, the yellow line stands out significantly. That is his slider, and that is his true plus-plus offering. Since the 2017 season, Bundy has a 24.1% swinging strike rate on 1,986 sliders thrown. That is an elite number across a large sample. With that knowledge, wouldn’t it make sense to increase the usage of this pitch? Welcome to the new and improved 2020 and beyond Dylan Bundy.
2020 & Future Outlook
The post-hype sleeper that is Dylan Bundy finally got away from the dreaded pitching environment that is the Baltimore Orioles. Now with the Los Angeles Angels, Bundy has looked like a new pitcher. The discussion in the off-season after it was announced he was changing teams was will be start throwing his off-speed and breaking pitches more. Through four starts, it sure does look like that is the case.
Prior to 2020, Bundy’s lowest four-seam fastball usage was 42.4 percent. This season, he is sitting at 29.7 percent. He has upped his slider usage a full seven percent, and his changeup and curveball make up the rest of the difference. The results have been astonishing. He currently owns a 1.57 ERA, a 0.63 WHIP, and an elite 30.2% strikeout-minus-walk rate. Bundy is likely leading the AL Cy Young race one-third of the way through to shortened 2020 season.
While the window to buy low may have come and gone, there may still be fantasy owners that aren’t completely buying the makeover. Perhaps this is even more true in dynasty leagues, where many people likely don’t recognize that Bundy is still only 27 years old. If the owner is in win-now mode and needs some help at pitching, Bundy should still be at a low enough trade value that he will reap benefits over the next four or five years. Buy the post-hype, and buy Bundy as quickly as possible. Otherwise, risk missing out on a potential fantasy ace for years to come.
Like Justin’s look at post-hype sleepers on the mound? Looking for more great values? Check out Chris Clegg’s latest venture into the StatCast trends that are emerging in this chaotic MLB season.
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