Ranking 2023 Rookie Pitchers for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

2023 felt like the year of the rookie pitcher. Teams were relying on young arms left and right and the crazy part was that most of them delivered. Sure, there were some disappointments, but there was a lot to be encouraged by. Now looking at 2024, how should these pitchers be valued? What parts of their 2023 performances were noise versus relevant information? The sample size on many of these pitchers is small, but there is still plenty of useful information. This article ranks the top 20 second-year pitchers for 2024. The 20 young pitchers have been broken up into tiers to help differentiate their fantasy value from one another.

Top 20 Second Year Pitchers

Tier 1

Kodai Senga- SP, NYM

Yes, Senga is the only pitcher in the top tier. He is also the only one of these pitchers that is not like the others. Senga made his Major League debut last season with plenty of professional baseball experience from his time overseas. His rookie season went about as well as anybody could have expected. He went 12-7 with a 2.98 ERA and finished seventh in National League Cy Young voting.

Part of what sets Senga apart is the fact you know he will not have any innings limitations. Teams are careful with their young pitchers and shutdowns occur more than just in their rookie season. In this sense, Senga is a veteran and does not need to worry about this. The other reason he is by himself is the performance he put on from July forward. Senga made 14 starts pitching to a 2.44 ERA. His strikeout rate remained high at 29,8% which is always important for fantasy managers and his control continued improving. An 11.1% walk rate is the caution flag in his profile, but this lowered to 9.1% from July forward. Senga should be in for a massive second season in New York.

Tier 2

Grayson Rodriguez- SP, BAL

Eury Perez- SP, MIA

Bobby Miller- SP, LAD

Now we get to the true rookie pitchers. Rodriguez, Perez, and Miller were all spectacular in their own right last season. Rodriguez was able to reset himself after a slow start and was one of the best pitchers in baseball during the second half last season. After the All-Star Break, Rodriguez posted a 2.58 ERA and pitched over 160 innings last year between the Majors and Triple-A. The only reason he ranks in the second tier is the lack of strikeouts last year. His success came with a greater reliance on the fastball which is the opposite way to generate strikeouts. Strikeouts are a key part of fantasy baseball which pushes Rodriguez into this second tier.

Perez looked the part as a 20-year-old pitching in the Major Leagues. His stuff was electric as he averaged 98 on his four-seamer and a whiff rate over 47% on the slider. Strikeouts are clearly not going to be an issue for Perez moving forward. The biggest concern is inning restrictions. The team shut down Perez last season despite making a push for the playoff and he could be limited again in 2024. The other issue is inconsistent command. Perez surrendered plenty of hard contact and as a fly ball pitcher, he struggled to prevent the long ball. This is more of an issue for leagues like Ottoneu but is still something to monitor.

Both Perez and Rodriguez relied heavily on their four-seam fastball in their rookie seasons. Miller showed diversity in his arsenal mixing in more of his off-speed pitches along with a sinker. He limited hard contact while showing off a four-seam fastball that averaged 99.1 mph. His curveball and changeup averaged whiff rates of 36 and 39.9% respectively. Both of these pitches allow him to effectively handle left-handed batters. Even after signing Yamamoto and trading for Glasnow, the Dodgers still have plenty of needs in their rotation. The signing of Paxton pushes Miller to the bottom of this tier but should not impact him significantly. Miller is set up for a big 2024 season and is the final pitcher in tier two.

Tier 3

Bryan Woo- SP, SEA

Gavin Williams- SP, CLE

Tanner Bibee- SP, CLE

Brandon Pfaadt- SP, ARI

Bryan Woo leads the way in tier three. Like most of their Minor League pitchers, the Mariners promoted Woo straight from Double-A. After getting roughed up for six runs in his Major League debut, Woo settled in nicely posting a 3.32 ERA across his next 15 starts. Woo mixes three fastballs all of which he had good success with last year. Woo hardly relied on any of his breaking stuff (a slider was thrown just over 8% of the time), but I take this as an encouraging sign moving forward. If Woo could have substantial success without a true breaking pitch, imagine his ceiling if one develops.

Williams was one of the more polished prospects from the 2021 draft class and moved quickly through the Minor League system. After a dominant Minor League career, his stuff seemed to take a step back at the Major League level. His strikeout rate fell and the walk rate was over 10.7%. Despite the lackluster strikeout-to-walk ratios, Williams still has plenty of upside. His slider generated a whiff rate of over 31.8% and his curveball generated a whiff rate of over 35.2%. He effectively limited hard contact and seemed to get better as the season moved along. Control has never been an issue for him in the past giving confidence he will put everything together in 2024.

Coming in right behind Williams is another Guardians’ pitcher. Bibee had an extremely successful season at the Major League level pitching 142 innings to a 2.98 ERA. His pitching run value ranked in the 97^th percentile in all of baseball. He already looks like one of the safer pitchers in baseball despite being only 24 years old. The only reason he ranks so far down on this list is a lack of true upside in the strikeout department. He profiles as more of a control specialist moving forward. A solid pitcher without a ton of upside lands him in tier three.

Pfaadt’s strong playoff run bumps him up to the third tier. After struggling for much of the regular season, Pfaadt made some significant changes leading to much more success. He reduced his fastball percentage and leaned more heavily on a sinker he began developing. He struck out 29.9% of the batters he faced in five playoff starts with a walk rate under 6%. That level of success against some of the best teams in baseball increase his value in 2024. His early season struggles prevent him from ranking any higher.

Tier 4

Taj Bradley- SP, TB

Bryce Miller- SP, SEA

Emmet Sheehan- SP, LAD

After trading Tyler Glasnow, the Rays are going to need contributions from their young pitching. That starts with Bradley who was a bit disappointing but was considered by many to be a top pitching prospect in baseball last season. The biggest issue for Bradley last season was the long ball. He surrendered 23 in 104 innings. Bradley made a few too many big mistakes, but overall his stuff rated out very well on PLV. His PLA was 3.59 and his fastball graded out with a 5.42 overall rating. Bradley comes with an excellent base in an organization every fantasy manager should trust. He leads the way for tier four.

Following closely behind is Bryce Miller. Miller demonstrated excellent control on the mound walking under 5% of batters he faced. He seemed to grow a bit fatigued down the stretch as he posted a 5.23 ERA in his last 12 starts. The biggest issue was Miller’s fastball. He allowed 13 home runs on the fastball and he throws it nearly 59% of the time. Similarly to Bradley, this pitch grades extremely high on PLV, but Miller is just making a few too many mistakes. Without an elite swing-and-miss pitch he falls to the fourth tier, but there is still a lot to like.

The Dodgers seem to develop a new pitching prospect each season and in 2023 it was Emmet Sheehan. Control was the biggest issue for Sheehan in the Minor Leagues. His walk rate surprisingly was not the issue in the Major Leagues. Sticking with the theme of pitchers with a home run issue, Sheehan surrendered 11 home runs in 60.1 IP. Unlike Bradley and Miller, Sheehan’s stuff did not grade out as highly on PLV, but that does not paint the full picture. Both of his secondaries generated whiff rates over 43% giving him as much upside as both of the other pitchers in this tier. Sheehan is a sleeper to watch in 2024 even after the team signed James Paxton. Sheehan’s talent will result in opportunity.

Tier 5

Mason Miller- RP, OAK

Reese Olson- SP, DET

Andrew Abbott- SP, CIN

This is a tier filled with upside. Mason Miller leads the way with a high 90s fastball and a wipeout slider. After failing to make it through the fifth inning in each of his first two starts, Miller looked dominant in two starts before landing on the IL. Injuries have been a consistent issue throughout his professional career and is the reason he falls to tier five. The Athletics have already come out and said that they anticipate using him in a relief role and that is likely going to be his future. He could be a dominant closer, but with Oakland not expecting to contend it is fair to wonder how many save opportunities he will receive.

Andrew Abbott is another prospect who flew through the Minor Leagues last season. His strikeout rates throughout the Minor Leagues were incredible but dipped once he reached the Major Leagues. His fastball, which he threw over 50% of the time, was extremely underwhelming. The pitch graded out as an 81 Stuff+ and he finished with an overall 87 Stuff+. In addition, he has to pitch his home games in Great American Ballpark. He gave up an average exit velocity of 92.2 mph with a 9.2%-barrel rate. Not a great combination. His Minor League track record suggests there is upside here, but it is difficult to envision a path to success in 2024.

Reese Olson is a completely different story. Olson is projected to earn a spot in the Tigers’ Major League rotation. During his Major League debut season, he was solid yet unspectacular. The strikeout rate was nothing to write home about although his walk rate was impressive. He gave up a lot of hard contact, but his home park is a plus. He is more of a low-variance option that lacks a lot of upside.

Tier 6

AJ Smith Shawver- SP, ATL

Sawyer Gipson-Long- SP, DET

Two similar players fill Tier 6. AJ Smith-Shawver flew through Atlanta’s system last year before making his Major League debut at just 20 years old. The results were not great (a 4.26 ERA with a 6.69 FIP), but there is still a lot of optimism about his future. The reason he ranks so low is the uncertainty around his role in 2024. The Braves appear to have a full rotation although AJSS could beat out Bryce Elder. If he does not, he could be in a swing-man role filling in whenever somebody lands on the IL. Potential-wise, he belongs in the fifth tier, but with the uncertainty, he finds himself here

Gipson-Long had a dominant end to 2023. He made five starts in September pitching to a 2.70 ERA with a 3.16 FIP. He relies heavily on his slider and changeup both of which generated whiff rates north of 40. His 99th-percentile extension helps his pitches play up even better than the metrics suggest. Similarly to AJSS, SGL (this is a tier full of acronyms) lacks a rotation spot entering the year. The Tigers signed Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty, limiting SGL’s 2024 impact. He will make starts, but it is difficult to rely on him to start the 2024 season.

Tier 7

Luis Medina- SP, OAK

Quinn Priester- SP, PIT

Luis Ortiz- SP, PIT

Matthew Liberatore- SP, STL

The final tier on this list is the bottom of the barrel. All four of these players have shown up on prospect reports at one point or another, but it is difficult to envision any of these four having much of an impact in fantasy. Medina comes with a fastball that averages 96 mph and his slider generated a 48.2% whiff rate. The inconsistent command and control that has plagued Medina throughout his career appeared to still be an issue last season. He is likely to shuttle between the Major Leagues and Triple-A most of next season and should not be viewed as more than a streamer.

Priester is a former first-round pick who comes with the most pedigree of any of the four names in this tier. He posted a 7.74 ERA in 50 Major League innings last season. He relies heavily on a sinker which limits his strikeout upside and further lowers his fantasy value. Control has also become an issue in recent years. Fantasy managers should not expect much of a bounce-back this year.

Ortiz is another Pittsburgh arm who threw 86.2 IP with the Pirates last year. The results were better than Priester’s but not by much. He struck out less than 15% of the batters he faced while walking over 12% of batters. This is about as bad as you can get from a fantasy perspective. There is no real upside here even with a projected rotation spot in 2024.

Liberatore would rank higher in this tier if not for St. Louis filling up their rotation with veterans. The start to his Major League career has been disappointing, but he looked solid in a relief role to end 2023. Liberatore mixes in an intriguing curveball and slider combination but struggled against right-handed hitters. His role moving forward is likely as a swingman or left-handed specialist. This is not useful for fantasy managers.

For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.