Rest of Season Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Don’t Take On Too Much Detmers

Los Angeles Angels rookie Reid Detmers threw the first solo no-hitter of the 2022 season this past week. The feat came in just his 11th career Major League start and occurred less than two years to the date from when the Angels drafted him in the first round of the 2020 Amateur Draft. Given his draft stock and early success, was Tuesday’s outing the first big step on Detmers’ meteoric rise to superstardom? In my opinion, that is unlikely, at least at this stage of the game. Before I vault Detmers up my rest of season fantasy baseball rankings, I think it is best to keep expectations in check just a bit.

All About Reid

I hate to be the guy who downplays a no-hitter. What Detmers did against Tampa was quite impressive. But he had just two strikeouts in his gem on Tuesday. It had been over a decade since a pitcher last threw a no-no with as few as two strikeouts. That lack of strikeouts has been an issue thus far this year. Of the 74 pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings this season, only eight have a lower strikeout rate than Detmers’ 16.8 percent mark. Before Tuesday, he had yet to surpass five innings pitched in any of his previous five starts. So it is not even as if he is racking up punchouts due to volume. Entering the weekend, he has 20 strikeouts through six starts. Ryan Helsley, who I featured last week in my ROS rankings, has 20 strikeouts in eight relief appearances this year.

Detmers has the second-lowest BABIP allowed of those 74 hurlers who have at least 30 innings pitched, at .174. In addition, just six have a lower left on-base percentage than his 63 percent rate. Those numbers make me nervous for regression as a fantasy manager. Sooner or later, balls are going to find holes through the defense, and baserunners will come around to score. Though Detmers has been effective in keeping hitters off-balance, particularly with his curveball, he lacks a true putaway pitch. So far in 2022, none of his pitches have registered a putaway percentage of greater than 16 percent, per Statcast. While his xERA, FIP, and xFIP all sit in a respectable range between 3.81 and 4.34, his Statcast metrics are not exactly awe-inspiring:

Detmers is the club’s top prospect and should have a bright future as a reliable starting pitcher. If you are in a Dynasty league, I would hold onto Detmers. I believe he has a fair amount of long-term value. Detmers is still just 22 years of age and has plenty of time to hone his craft and develop his repertoire. Most prospects haven’t even reached The Show by his age, let alone are throwing a no-hitter against a quality team like Tampa Bay. For Redraft leagues, however, I would not buy into the hype following his no-hitter.

I don’t mind grabbing Reid Detmers if he is available in your league. He is currently rostered in 77 percent of Fantrax leagues. Detmers has a couple of winnable matchups on the horizon and could carry the momentum from Tuesday’s start into his next few starts.

But he is more of a streamer for me than a must-start or even a must-hold. While I did give him a slight bump in this week’s rankings, he still barely cracks the top-100 starting pitchers for me. I have him ranked in between the likes of Marco Gonzales and Zack Greinke, which should illustrate my lack of expectations for Detmers to emerge as a budding ace anytime soon.

Rest of Season Fantasy Baseball Rankings