Rest of Season Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Flaherty Lighting It Up

I am going to start this week’s edition of my rest-of-season fantasy baseball rankings with a little trivia. There were 76 qualified starting pitchers entering this weekend’s action. Only one ranked in the top five in both strikeout rate and walk rate. This led him to pace all qualifying pitchers with a 29.4 percent K-BB rate and a 2.13 xFIP. And I would guess that most cannot name the pitcher in question. I know I couldn’t. OK, here is a hint – he pitches for the Detroit Tigers.

Wrong. It’s Jack Flaherty, not Tarik Skubal. 

After being one of the best pitchers in baseball from 2018 and 2019, Flaherty had a decent (but not great) 2020 season. Then, the injuries hit. First, it was an oblique injury suffered while batting, which cost him over two months. Ah, remember when pitchers used to hit? Soon upon his return, he suffered a shoulder strain. All told he had a solid season, going 9-2 with a 3.22 ERA. But he only made 15 starts, and his underlying metrics were down from previous years. The next season was a mess. He missed the first two months of the year due to more shoulder issues, then pitched just eight innings before he was back on the Injured List. Flaherty made just eight starts in total that year. 

Last season, Flaherty’s numbers continued to decline. In 20 starts for the Cardinals, he posted a 4.43 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. He allowed more hits than innings pitched and had an ugly 106-54 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Saint Louis sent him to Baltimore at last year’s trade deadline for prospects. Flaherty was hit hard in his brief tenure as an Oriole. He allowed 26 earned runs in just 34.2 innings of work. The Detroit Tigers signed him to a one-year contract in December. Given how far Flaherty had fallen, there was not much optimism in fantasy circles. Fantasy managers largely ignored the 28-year-old. Fast forward two months and Flaherty has been one of the most pleasant surprises of the 2024 season. 

At least in real life. From a fantasy perspective, not as much. 

Two major issues have plagued Flaherty so far this year. First, was that as good as he had been in his first eight starts, Flaherty entered the weekend without a win. Yes, A.J. Minter and Reed Garrett each had five more wins apiece than Flaherty. Seems fair. Also, Flaherty had run into a bit of bad ERA luck. Despite leading the Majors with a 2.13 xFIP, his ERA stood nearly two full runs higher, at 3.88. That ranked just 49th among those same 76 qualified starting pitchers. Because of the middling ERA and lack of wins, Flaherty ranked outside the top 70 starters in fantasy production. Flaherty was able to secure his first victory as a Tiger on Saturday against the Arizona Diamondbacks, so perhaps his luck is turning around. He struck out nine in that outing and is now second in all of MLB with 72 strikeouts. 

For ROS rankings purposes, I find myself hedging a bit. Even at his peak, he was not this precise. Flaherty is on pace to set new career highs in both strikeout rate and walk rate. However, those are the only Statcast numbers that have been elite this season. The rest are still above average, but his batted-ball metrics are a far cry from his 2019 levels. Considering that offense is down throughout the league, that is not ideal. And it could get him in trouble if his control metrics dip. I listed him as an SP5 in 12-team leagues in this week’s rankings. That feels low given how he has performed so far. But there are so many pitchers dealing this season that I just couldn’t go much higher. Having said that, if you have Flaherty on your fantasy team, enjoy the ride. 

Rest of Season Fantasy Baseball Rankings