Rest-of-Season Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Keeping Up With the Joneses

If I may channel my inner Derek Zoolander, just because I am really, really, really, ridiculously good at ranking players does not mean that my rest-of-season rankings are beyond reproach. After all, they are just one man’s opinion. I have received a fair amount of feedback thus far this year regarding my rankings, and I welcome it. I have different opinions, and sometimes I even get things wrong. It happens. Two of the players I have received the most questions about when it comes to ROS rankings are Nolan Jones of the Colorado Rockies and Jared Jones of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Cliffs Notes version is usually that I am too high on Nolan and too low on Jared. Perhaps those people are correct. But here is why I have them ranked where I do, along with some words on my process.

ROS Ranking Tutorial

Rest-of-season rankings mean exactly that: the rest of the season. If the season started tomorrow, I would rank players in a particular order. It does not even mean that is necessarily how I would draft them. That can change based on categorical needs, position and lineup structure, and other factors. My ROS rankings are more along the lines of expected total dollar value in Roto leagues. For example, I have Anthony Volpe ranked ahead of Will Smith. In a vacuum, I think Volpe will be a more productive fantasy contributor going forward than Smith. If I were drafting tomorrow in a two-catcher league, however, I would probably still draft Smith ahead of Volpe. The positional scarcity involved results in Smith coming at a premium draft price relative to Volpe.

I also tend to (or at least I try to) rely less on small sample sizes. For example, if I had a player ranked in the top 50 coming into the season, he is probably at least still in my top 100, barring injury. In the same vein, if I did not have a player prominently ranked in my preseason rankings, I would probably not move him all the way up my list a month into the season. Maybe this is because most of the leagues I play in feature limited roster moves. In my high-stakes home league, every player added to the roster costs money. In my Salary Cap leagues, we can only add/drop 16 players for the entire season. If I am going to add a player in any of these leagues, it better be for a damn good reason.

That does mean I miss the boat at times. I might fail to add a future stud, or I will hold onto a player for too long. I am not perfect, and it is a long season. That is the point I want to emphasize. It is a long season. Which brings me to Nolan and Jared Jones. I do have Nolan ranked lower than I did a month ago. And I have Jared ranked way higher than I did a month ago. Still, people say I have not moved enough on either player. Again, they might be right. But here is my not-exactly-scientific breakdown, to be followed by my latest ROS rankings update. As always, thank you for the feedback and the conversation.

Nolan Jones Outlook

Nolan Jones has been terrible so far this season. Trust me, I know. I have him in the aforementioned high-stakes league. It’s gross. But I can’t give up. Not yet. I will mention that he has been dealing with back issues this week. If that becomes a lingering issue, then he may not come close to living up to his draft price. However, he did return on Saturday and had two hits, so hopefully those issues are behind him. If they are, I still think he will be fine. Jones is striking out at an ugly 37.5 percent rate, but there are reasons for optimism.

His contact rate is up from last year, while his swinging strike rate is down. Jones is taking a lot of pitches, and in particular, a lot of strikes. He is swinging at just 39.5 percent of pitches and sees a 25.5 percent called strike rate. Perhaps he is being too patient for whatever reason. Jones is still hitting the ball relatively hard, with a 55th percentile hard-hit rate. The problem is that he is not barreling the ball much at all. Jones overperformed to a degree last season, with a .297 batting average compared to a .247 xBA. I think another season at close to .300 is probably a pipe dream. However, I do think Jones will get it going, especially once the weather warms up in Colorado.

I also feel the need to point this out from a personal perspective. On May 11 of last year, Josh Naylor was hitting .191 with three home runs and 19 RBI. Do you want to know how I know that? Because that was right around the time I dropped him in my high-stakes league. He finished the season hitting .308 with 17 homers, 97 RBI, and 10 steals. What can I say? Nobody is perfect. So, while I may not be quite as bullish on Nolan Jones as I was a month ago, I still think he will be a valuable fantasy asset going forward. And if you are in my high-stakes league and reading this, sorry, but I am not dropping him. If I go down with the ship, so be it.

Jared Jones Outlook

Jared Jones has set the league on fire since making his MLB debut last month. He enters Sunday’s action with a 2.79 ERA and 0.83 WHIP and has an unreal 39-4 strikeout-walk ratio through five starts. So far, Jones has made me look sillier based on my preseason ranking of him than he made Brice Turang look last week. And for as long as he is allowed to do his thing, he will likely continue to do so. But that is where some of my skepticism lies concerning Jones and my ROS rankings.

Two starts ago, Jones cruised through five innings against the New York Mets. He retired 15 of 16 batters faced through five innings, registering seven strikeouts along the way. And then, the Pirates pulled him from the game. After 59 pitches. In a 1-0 game. Sure enough, Pittsburgh’s bullpen lost the lead and Jones missed out on a win. Look, I know the game is played and managed much differently now than it was when I was growing up. And the same thing is happening throughout the league to a degree. So if Jones only pitches five or six innings at a time, or is capped at around 140 innings for the year, it is not as big a strike against him as it would have been back in the day. But I do think it is the sort of thing that lowers his fantasy ceiling a bit.

While Jones has exhibited excellent control this year, his career Minor League numbers suggest some regression may be in store. I do not see Jones continuing to rival George Kirby in the control department long-term. Jones also has the eighth-highest left-on-base rate among 75 qualified starters. When you combine that with a 7th-percentile hard-hit rate and 14th-percentile barrel rate allowed, it means that Jones may eventually give up some runs that he has not yet thus far. None of this is to suggest that he will be a liability going forward. He has electric stuff and is a must-see when he is on the mound. If you have him on your roster, enjoy the ride. And if I am too low on him going forward, it will not be the first time nor the last that I am wrong about a player.

Rest of Season Fantasy Baseball Rankings

RANK	PLAYER	TEAM	POS
1	Ronald Acuna Jr.	ATL	OF
2	Bobby Witt Jr.	KC	SS
3	Mookie Betts	LAD	2B/SS/ OF
4	Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	OF
5	Kyle Tucker	HOU	OF
6	Juan Soto	NYY	OF
7	Julio Rodriguez	SEA	OF
8	Shohei Ohtani	LAD	DH
9	Yordan Alvarez	HOU	OF
10	Aaron Judge	NYY	OF
11	Freddie Freeman	LAD	1B
12	Jose Ramirez	CLE	3B
13	Matt Olson	ATL	1B
14	Austin Riley	ATL	3B
15	Trea Turner	PHI	SS
16	Zack Wheeler	PHI	SP
17	Bryce Harper	PHI	1B
18	Gunnar Henderson	BAL	SS/3B
19	Michael Harris II	ATL	OF
20	Rafael Devers	BOS	3B
21	Elly De La Cruz	CIN	SS/3B
22	Corbin Burnes	BAL	SP
23	Corbin Carroll	ARI	OF
24	Pablo Lopez	MIN	SP
25	Francisco Lindor	NYM	SS
26	Pete Alonso	NYM	1B
27	Marcus Semien	TEX	2B
28	Ozzie Albies	ATL	2B
29	Corey Seager	TEX	SS
30	Freddy Peralta	MIL	SP
31	Kevin Gausman	TOR	SP
32	Luis Castillo	SEA	SP
33	Jose Altuve	HOU	2B
34	Zac Gallen	ARI	SP
35	George Kirby	SEA	SP
36	Mike Trout	LAA	OF
37	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	LAD	SP
38	CJ Abrams	WSH	SS
39	Tyler Glasnow	LAD	SP
40	Randy Arozarena	TB	OF
41	Max Fried	ATL	SP
42	Bo Bichette	TOR	SS
43	Logan Webb	SF	SP
44	Tarik Skubal	DET	SP
45	Adolis Garcia	TEX	OF
46	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	1B
47	Logan Gilbert	SEA	SP
48	Joe Ryan	MIN	SP
49	Dylan Cease	SD	SP
50	Aaron Nola	PHI	SP
51	Manny Machado	SD	3B
52	Framber Valdez	HOU	SP
53	Emmanuel Clase	CLE	RP
54	Zach Eflin	TB	SP
55	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	OF
56	Josh Hader	HOU	RP
57	Josh Naylor	CLE	1B
58	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	MIA	OF
59	Grayson Rodriguez	BAL	SP
60	Ketel Marte	ARI	2B
61	Paul Goldschmidt	STL	1B
62	Adley Rutschman	BAL	C
63	Christian Walker	ARI	1B
64	Edwin Diaz	NYM	RP
65	Andres Gimenez	CLE	2B
66	Camilo Doval	SF	RP
67	Nico Hoerner	CHC	2B/SS
68	Teoscar Hernandez	LAD	OF
69	Nolan Jones	COL	OF
70	Oneil Cruz	PIT	SS
71	William Contreras	MIL	C
72	George Springer	TOR	OF
73	Chris Sale	ATL	SP
74	Christian Yelich	MIL	OF
75	Marcell Ozuna	ATL	DH
76	Anthony Volpe	NYY	SS
77	Sonny Gray	STL	SP
78	Cole Ragans	KC	SP
79	Gleyber Torres	NYY	2B
80	Alex Bregman	HOU	3B
81	Will Smith	LAD	C
82	Alexis Diaz	CIN	RP
83	Raisel Iglesias	ATL	RP
84	Spencer Steer	CIN	1B/3B/ OF
85	Bryan Reynolds	PIT	OF
86	J.T. Realmuto	PHI	C
87	Tyler O’Neill	BOS	OF
88	Carlos Rodon	NYY	SP
89	Nolan Arenado	STL	3B
90	Evan Phillips	LAD	RP
91	Jackson Chourio	MIL	OF
92	Jhoan Duran	MIN	RP
93	David Bednar	PIT	RP
94	Dansby Swanson	CHC	SS
95	Evan Carter	TEX	OF
96	Chris Bassitt	TOR	SP
97	Jarren Duran	BOS	OF
98	Bobby Miller	LAD	SP
99	Justin Verlander	HOU	SP
100	Shota Imanaga	CHC	SP
101	Tanner Bibee	CLE	SP
102	Yainer Diaz	HOU	C
103	Vinnie Pasquantino	KC	1B
104	Justin Steele	CHC	SP
105	Jose Berrios	TOR	SP
106	Andres Munoz	SEA	RP
107	Ryan Helsley	STL	RP
108	Blake Snell	SF	SP
109	Xander Bogaerts	SD	2B/SS
110	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	CIN	1B
111	Nick Castellanos	PHI	OF
112	Taylor Ward	LAA	OF
113	Yandy Diaz	TB	1B
114	Hunter Greene	CIN	SP
115	Christopher Morel	CHC	3B/OF
116	Clay Holmes	NYY	RP
117	Willy Adames	MIL	SS
118	Bailey Ober	MIN	SP
119	Anthony Santander	BAL	OF
120	Jesus Luzardo	MIA	SP
121	Ha-Seong Kim	SD	2B/SS/ 3B
122	Joe Musgrove	SD	SP
123	Salvador Perez	KC	C/1B
124	Riley Greene	DET	OF
125	Cedric Mullins	BAL	OF
126	Ian Happ	CHC	OF
127	Jorge Soler	SF	OF
128	Alec Bohm	PHI	1B/3B
129	Jordan Montgomery	ARI	SP
130	Wyatt Langford	TEX	OF
131	Ezequiel Tovar	COL	SS
132	Jung Hoo Lee	SF	OF
133	Luis Arraez	MIA	2B
134	Seiya Suzuki	CHC	OF
135	Ke’Bryan Hayes	PIT	3B
136	Brandon Nimmo	NYM	OF
137	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	ARI	OF
138	Willson Contreras	STL	C
139	Tanner Scott	MIA	RP
140	Ryan Mountcastle	BAL	1B
141	Starling Marte	NYM	OF
142	Rhys Hoskins	MIL	1B
143	Spencer Torkelson	DET	1B
144	Mitch Keller	PIT	SP
145	Bryson Stott	PHI	2B
146	Jeremy Pena	HOU	SS
147	Jordan Romano	TOR	RP
148	Michael King	SD	SP
149	Craig Kimbrel	BAL	RP
150	Aaron Civale	TB	SP
151	Mason Miller	OAK	RP
152	Charlie Morton	ATL	SP
153	Yusei Kikuchi	TOR	SP
154	Maikel Garcia	KC	3B
155	Isaac Paredes	TB	1B/3B
156	Kenley Jansen	BOS	RP
157	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	SP
158	Yu Darvish	SD	SP
159	Cody Bellinger	CHC	1B/OF
160	Royce Lewis	MIN	3B
161	Daulton Varsho	TOR	OF
162	Matt Chapman	SF	3B
163	Nathaniel Lowe	TEX	1B
164	Steven Kwan	CLE	OF
165	Nick Lodolo	CIN	SP
166	Bryce Miller	SEA	SP
167	Reid Detmers	LAA	SP
168	Cristian Javier	HOU	SP
169	Pete Fairbanks	TB	RP
170	Walker Buehler	LAD	SP
171	Masataka Yoshida	BOS	OF
172	Lars Nootbaar	STL	OF
173	Gerrit Cole	NYY	SP
174	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	SP
175	Adbert Alzolay	CHC	RP
176	Hunter Brown	HOU	SP
177	Merrill Kelly	ARI	SP
178	Carlos Estevez	LAA	RP
179	Nestor Cortes	NYY	SP
180	Paul Sewald	ARI	RP
181	Byron Buxton	MIN	OF
182	Cal Raleigh	SEA	C
183	Thairo Estrada	SF	2B/SS
184	Cristopher Sanchez	PHI	SP
185	Ryan McMahon	COL	2B/3B
186	Jake Burger	MIA	3B
187	MacKenzie Gore	WSH	SP
188	Ryan Pepiot	TB	SP
189	Chas McCormick	HOU	OF
190	Jonathan India	CIN	2B
191	Edouard Julien	MIN	2B
192	Kerry Carpenter	DET	OF
193	Jonah Heim	TEX	C
194	Ranger Suarez	PHI	SP
195	Robert Suarez	SD	RP
196	Logan O’Hoppe	LAA	C
197	Keibert Ruiz	WSH	C
198	Josh Lowe	TB	OF
199	Max Scherzer	TEX	SP
200	Nolan Gorman	STL	2B
201	Lane Thomas	WSH	OF
202	Kutter Crawford	BOS	SP
203	Brayan Bello	BOS	SP
204	Jake Fraley	CIN	OF
205	MJ Melendez	KC	OF
206	Max Muncy	LAD	3B
207	Nick Pivetta	BOS	SP
208	Kodai Senga	NYM	SP
209	Jose Alvarado	PHI	RP
210	Jack Suwinski	PIT	OF
211	James Outman	LAD	OF
212	Eloy Jimenez	CHW	DH
213	Kyle Bradish	BAL	SP
214	Kyle Harrison	SF	SP
215	Andrew Vaughn	CHW	1B
216	Jorge Polanco	SEA	2B
217	Brandon Drury	LAA	1B/2B
218	Luis Robert Jr.	CHW	OF
219	Marcus Stroman	NYY	SP
220	Jeimer Candelario	CIN	1B/3B
221	Bryan Woo	SEA	SP
222	Bryan De La Cruz	MIA	OF
223	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C
224	Jordan Westburg	BAL	2B/3B
225	Gabriel Moreno	ARI	C
226	Carlos Correa	MIN	SS
227	Eduardo Rodriguez	ARI	SP
228	J.D. Martinez	NYM	DH
229	Jared Jones	PIT	SP
230	Anthony Rizzo	NYY	1B
231	Luis Campusano	SD	C
232	Josh Bell	MIA	1B
233	Garrett Crochet	CHW	SP
234	Ceddanne Rafaela	BOS	OF
235	Will Benson	CIN	OF
236	Max Kepler	MIN	OF
237	Jon Gray	TEX	SP
238	Lance Lynn	STL	SP
239	Brendan Rodgers	COL	2B
240	Brendan Donovan	STL	2B/OF
241	Justin Turner	TOR	1B
242	Andrew Abbott	CIN	SP
243	Jose Siri	TB	OF
244	Jake Cronenworth	SD	1B/2B
245	Bo Naylor	CLE	C
246	Mitch Garver	SEA	C
247	Jordan Hicks	SF	SP
248	Vaughn Grissom	BOS	SS
249	Tommy Edman	STL	2B/SS/ OF
250	Braxton Garrett	MIA	SP
251	Zach Neto	LAA	SS
252	Giancarlo Stanton	NYY	OF
253	Tim Anderson	MIA	SS
254	Gavin Williams	CLE	SP
255	Sean Murphy	ATL	C
256	Tanner Houck	BOS	SP
257	Kenta Maeda	DET	SP
258	Jason Foley	DET	RP
259	Leody Taveras	TEX	OF
260	Griffin Canning	LAA	SP
261	Zack Gelof	OAK	2B
262	Sal Frelick	MIL	OF
263	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C
264	Kyle Finnegan	WSH	RP
265	Colton Cowser	BAL	OF
266	Eugenio Suarez	ARI	3B
267	Luis Severino	NYM	SP
268	Logan Allen	CLE	SP
269	Clarke Schmidt	NYY	SP
270	Jack Flaherty	DET	SP
271	Luis Rengifo	LAA	2B/SS/ 3B/OF
272	Jackson Merrill	SD	SS/OF
273	Brice Turang	MIL	2B/SS
274	Kirby Yates	TEX	RP
275	Taj Bradley	TB	SP
276	TJ Friedl	CIN	OF
277	Triston McKenzie	CLE	SP
278	Jameson Taillon	CHC	SP
279	Brenton Doyle	COL	OF
280	Ty France	SEA	1B
281	Brady Singer	KC	SP
282	Edward Cabrera	MIA	SP
283	Joc Pederson	ARI	OF
284	Alejandro Kirk	TOR	C
285	Joel Payamps	MIL	RP
286	Michael Wacha	KC	SP
287	Jason Adam	TB	RP
288	Zack Littell	TB	SP
289	Devin Williams	MIL	RP
290	Patrick Sandoval	LAA	SP
291	Seth Lugo	KC	SP
292	Hunter Harvey	WSH	RP
293	Andrew Benintendi	CHW	OF
294	Miles Mikolas	STL	SP
295	Jordan Walker	STL	OF
296	Shane Baz	TB	SP
297	Brandon Marsh	PHI	OF
298	Jarred Kelenic	ATL	OF
299	Junior Caminero	TB	SS/3B
300	Luis Garcia	WSH	2B
301	Ronel Blanco	HOU	SP
302	Parker Meadows	DET	OF
303	Kyle Gibson	STL	SP
304	Esteury Ruiz	OAK	OF
305	Nelson Velazquez	KC	OF
306	Alex Verdugo	NYY	OF
307	Brandon Lowe	TB	2B
308	Sean Manaea	NYM	SP
309	Brent Rooker	OAK	OF
310	Charlie Blackmon	COL	OF
311	Kris Bryant	COL	OF
312	Dean Kremer	BAL	SP
313	Ryan Pressly	HOU	RP
314	Jose Quintana	NYM	SP
315	J.P. Crawford	SEA	SS
316	Triston Casas	BOS	1B
317	Orlando Arcia	ATL	SS
318	Reynaldo Lopez	ATL	SP
319	Steven Matz	STL	SP
320	Jeff Hoffman	PHI	RP
321	Jeff McNeil	NYM	2B/OF
322	Jackson Holliday	BAL	2B/SS
323	Paul Skenes	PIT	SP
324	Chris Paddack	MIN	SP
325	Henry Davis	PIT	C/OF
326	Jose Soriano	LAA	SP
327	James McArthur	KC	RP
328	Wilyer Abreu	BOS	OF
329	Reese Olsen	DET	SP
330	Hector Neris	CHC	RP
331	Andrew Heaney	TEX	SP
332	Dane Dunning	TEX	SP
333	Justin Lawrence	COL	RP
334	Ryan O’Hearn	BAL	1B/OF
335	Jose Leclerc	TEX	RP
336	Jordan Wicks	CHC	SP
337	Trevor Rogers	MIA	SP
338	Colt Keith	DET	2B/3B
339	Masyn Winn	STL	SS
340	Tyler Anderson	LAA	SP
341	Alex Kirilloff	MIN	1B/OF
342	Erick Fedde	CHW	SP
343	Michael Kopech	CHW	RP
344	Michael Busch	CHC	1B/3B
345	Jacob deGrom	TEX	SP
346	Tommy Pham	CHW	OF
347	Paul Blackburn	OAK	SP
348	Graham Ashcraft	CIN	SP
349	Josh Jung	TEX	3B
350	JP Sears	OAK	SP
351	Ramon Laureano	CLE	OF
352	Jose Abreu	HOU	1B
353	Mark Canha	DET	OF
354	Aroldis Chapman	PIT	RP
355	Luis Gil	NYY	SP
356	Yimi Garcia	TOR	RP
357	Bryce Elder	ATL	SP
358	Shea Langeliers	OAK	C
359	Kevin Ginkel	ARI	RP
360	Casey Mize	DET	SP
361	Frankie Montas	CIN	SP
362	Garrett Whitlock	BOS	SP
363	Javier Baez	DET	SS
364	Alex Lange	DET	RP
365	Yuki Matsui	SD	RP