Rest-of-Season Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Keeping Up With the Joneses

If I may channel my inner Derek Zoolander, just because I am really, really, really, ridiculously good at ranking players does not mean that my rest-of-season rankings are beyond reproach. After all, they are just one man’s opinion. I have received a fair amount of feedback thus far this year regarding my rankings, and I welcome it. I have different opinions, and sometimes I even get things wrong. It happens. Two of the players I have received the most questions about when it comes to ROS rankings are Nolan Jones of the Colorado Rockies and Jared Jones of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Cliffs Notes version is usually that I am too high on Nolan and too low on Jared. Perhaps those people are correct. But here is why I have them ranked where I do, along with some words on my process.

ROS Ranking Tutorial

Rest-of-season rankings mean exactly that: the rest of the season. If the season started tomorrow, I would rank players in a particular order. It does not even mean that is necessarily how I would draft them. That can change based on categorical needs, position and lineup structure, and other factors. My ROS rankings are more along the lines of expected total dollar value in Roto leagues. For example, I have Anthony Volpe ranked ahead of Will Smith. In a vacuum, I think Volpe will be a more productive fantasy contributor going forward than Smith. If I were drafting tomorrow in a two-catcher league, however, I would probably still draft Smith ahead of Volpe. The positional scarcity involved results in Smith coming at a premium draft price relative to Volpe.

I also tend to (or at least I try to) rely less on small sample sizes. For example, if I had a player ranked in the top 50 coming into the season, he is probably at least still in my top 100, barring injury. In the same vein, if I did not have a player prominently ranked in my preseason rankings, I would probably not move him all the way up my list a month into the season. Maybe this is because most of the leagues I play in feature limited roster moves. In my high-stakes home league, every player added to the roster costs money. In my Salary Cap leagues, we can only add/drop 16 players for the entire season. If I am going to add a player in any of these leagues, it better be for a damn good reason.

That does mean I miss the boat at times. I might fail to add a future stud, or I will hold onto a player for too long. I am not perfect, and it is a long season. That is the point I want to emphasize. It is a long season. Which brings me to Nolan and Jared Jones. I do have Nolan ranked lower than I did a month ago. And I have Jared ranked way higher than I did a month ago. Still, people say I have not moved enough on either player. Again, they might be right. But here is my not-exactly-scientific breakdown, to be followed by my latest ROS rankings update. As always, thank you for the feedback and the conversation.

Nolan Jones Outlook

Nolan Jones has been terrible so far this season. Trust me, I know. I have him in the aforementioned high-stakes league. It’s gross. But I can’t give up. Not yet. I will mention that he has been dealing with back issues this week. If that becomes a lingering issue, then he may not come close to living up to his draft price. However, he did return on Saturday and had two hits, so hopefully those issues are behind him. If they are, I still think he will be fine. Jones is striking out at an ugly 37.5 percent rate, but there are reasons for optimism.

His contact rate is up from last year, while his swinging strike rate is down. Jones is taking a lot of pitches, and in particular, a lot of strikes. He is swinging at just 39.5 percent of pitches and sees a 25.5 percent called strike rate. Perhaps he is being too patient for whatever reason. Jones is still hitting the ball relatively hard, with a 55th percentile hard-hit rate. The problem is that he is not barreling the ball much at all. Jones overperformed to a degree last season, with a .297 batting average compared to a .247 xBA. I think another season at close to .300 is probably a pipe dream. However, I do think Jones will get it going, especially once the weather warms up in Colorado.

I also feel the need to point this out from a personal perspective. On May 11 of last year, Josh Naylor was hitting .191 with three home runs and 19 RBI. Do you want to know how I know that? Because that was right around the time I dropped him in my high-stakes league. He finished the season hitting .308 with 17 homers, 97 RBI, and 10 steals. What can I say? Nobody is perfect. So, while I may not be quite as bullish on Nolan Jones as I was a month ago, I still think he will be a valuable fantasy asset going forward. And if you are in my high-stakes league and reading this, sorry, but I am not dropping him. If I go down with the ship, so be it.

Jared Jones Outlook

Jared Jones has set the league on fire since making his MLB debut last month. He enters Sunday’s action with a 2.79 ERA and 0.83 WHIP and has an unreal 39-4 strikeout-walk ratio through five starts. So far, Jones has made me look sillier based on my preseason ranking of him than he made Brice Turang look last week. And for as long as he is allowed to do his thing, he will likely continue to do so. But that is where some of my skepticism lies concerning Jones and my ROS rankings.

Two starts ago, Jones cruised through five innings against the New York Mets. He retired 15 of 16 batters faced through five innings, registering seven strikeouts along the way. And then, the Pirates pulled him from the game. After 59 pitches. In a 1-0 game. Sure enough, Pittsburgh’s bullpen lost the lead and Jones missed out on a win. Look, I know the game is played and managed much differently now than it was when I was growing up. And the same thing is happening throughout the league to a degree. So if Jones only pitches five or six innings at a time, or is capped at around 140 innings for the year, it is not as big a strike against him as it would have been back in the day. But I do think it is the sort of thing that lowers his fantasy ceiling a bit.

While Jones has exhibited excellent control this year, his career Minor League numbers suggest some regression may be in store. I do not see Jones continuing to rival George Kirby in the control department long-term. Jones also has the eighth-highest left-on-base rate among 75 qualified starters. When you combine that with a 7th-percentile hard-hit rate and 14th-percentile barrel rate allowed, it means that Jones may eventually give up some runs that he has not yet thus far. None of this is to suggest that he will be a liability going forward. He has electric stuff and is a must-see when he is on the mound. If you have him on your roster, enjoy the ride. And if I am too low on him going forward, it will not be the first time nor the last that I am wrong about a player.

Rest of Season Fantasy Baseball Rankings