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Rest of Season Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Panic in the Outfield

Memorial Day Weekend is an unofficial benchmark of the Major League Baseball season. We have reached the point where most stats have begun to stabilize, for better or worse. That does not mean all hope is lost for players like Julio Rodriguez or Randy Arozarena going forward. Nor does it mean that I will escape criticism for not ranking Jared Jones (or some other pitcher) high enough in this week’s ROS rankings. But it does mean that we can probably trust what we are seeing more than we could a month ago. And yet, it almost makes rest-of-season rankings trickier for those who have drastically underperformed to this point in the season.

Let’s start with Rodriguez and Arozarena. Offense is down across baseball, approaching levels we have not seen since the early 1990s. But neither Rodriguez nor Arozarena are in the top 200 overall from a year-to-date perspective in fantasy. Rodriguez hit his third home run of the season on Saturday. Meanwhile, JJ Bleday has had three homers since Wednesday. Only so much blame can be attributed to the baseball or bad weather. Rodriguez is just not hitting the ball with authority. His barrel rate is down from 12.4 percent to 7.7 percent this season. Rodriguez is also not pulling the ball. Fangraphs credits him with a 31.9 percent pull rate, which is far below his career number entering the year (41.9 percent). As a result, he is slugging just .319 this season. For reference, Zack Greinke’s career slugging percentage is .336.

Having said that, I do not think Rodriguez is that far away from figuring it out. While his walk rate has decreased and strikeout rate has risen this year, Rodriguez’s contact rates are more or less in line with his career norms. And even though his barrels are way down, he is still hitting the ball hard. Rodriguez ranks in the 86th percentile in hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant. His line drive percentage is way up this year, and he still possesses elite bat speed. Perhaps Saturday’s home run can get him going. The Mariners have scored the second-fewest runs in baseball, which hasn’t helped his counting stats. Ultimately, I still think Rodriguez is an elite talent and should still produce big numbers going forward. I am a bit more concerned about Arozarena.

While Rodriguez has at least maintained a solid batting average and has some decent underlying metrics, Arozarena cannot say the same. He enters the weekend hitting a cool .159. His expected batting average is higher, but is still only .200. Arozarena ranks in the bottom five percent of players in xBA, launch angle sweet spot percentage, and whiff rate. He has the second-lowest line drive rate (11.1 percent) among 160 qualified hitters. That has resulted in a .186 BABIP, the lowest among all qualifiers. He does still have eight home runs to his credit, which is in line with his career averages. But he looks like he’s trying to hit every pitch into the upper deck in left field. I would be lying if I said I knew exactly where to place him in this week’s rankings.

He has only started three of the team’s past five games. But with Josh Lowe back on the Injured List again, I do not think Arozarena is in real danger of losing his starting job. Tampa Bay faces Oakland and Miami in the next couple of weeks. Both teams rank in the bottom eight in team ERA, and Miami’s rotation features several left-handed pitchers. Perhaps this stretch can get Arozarena looking like his old self. I still think you probably have to start him in most formats for the time being and hope for the best. Having said that, I did drop him a bit in my ROS rankings. Is it too much? Not enough? Only time will tell.

Rest of Season Fantasy Baseball Rankings

RANKPLAYERTEAMPOS
1Ronald Acuna Jr.ATLOF
2Bobby Witt Jr.KCSS
3Shohei OhtaniLADDH
4Kyle TuckerHOUOF
5Juan SotoNYYOF
6Mookie BettsLAD2B/SS/ OF
7Aaron JudgeNYYOF
8Yordan AlvarezHOUOF
9Fernando Tatis Jr.SDOF
10Freddie FreemanLAD1B
11Jose RamirezCLE3B
12Elly De La CruzCINSS/3B
13Gunnar HendersonBALSS/3B
14Zack WheelerPHISP
15Rafael DeversBOS3B
16Matt OlsonATL1B
17Austin RileyATL3B
18Bryce HarperPHI1B
19Corbin BurnesBALSP
20Julio RodriguezSEAOF
21Corey SeagerTEXSS
22Ozzie AlbiesATL2B
23Pablo LopezMINSP
24Pete AlonsoNYM1B
25Tarik SkubalDETSP
26CJ AbramsWSHSS
27Marcus SemienTEX2B
28Michael Harris IIATLOF
29Tyler GlasnowLADSP
30Corbin CarrollARIOF
31Yoshinobu YamamotoLADSP
32George KirbySEASP
33Jose AltuveHOU2B
34Luis CastilloSEASP
35Francisco LindorNYMSS
36Freddy PeraltaMILSP
37Zac GallenARISP
38Joe RyanMINSP
39Aaron NolaPHISP
40Kevin GausmanTORSP
41Logan GilbertSEASP
42Bo BichetteTORSS
43Max FriedATLSP
44Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR1B
45Emmanuel ClaseCLERP
46Adolis GarciaTEXOF
47Dylan CeaseSDSP
48Josh HaderHOURP
49Framber ValdezHOUSP
50Kyle SchwarberPHIOF
51Chris SaleATLSP
52Jazz Chisholm Jr.MIAOF
53Josh NaylorCLE1B
54Marcell OzunaATLDH
55Adley RutschmanBALC
56Christian YelichMILOF
57Ketel MarteARI2B
58Manny MachadoSD3B
59Logan WebbSFSP
60Teoscar HernandezLADOF
61Andres GimenezCLE2B
62Camilo DovalSFRP
63Cody BellingerCHC1B/OF
64Cole RagansKCSP
65Christian WalkerARI1B
66Randy ArozarenaTBOF
67Sonny GraySTLSP
68Anthony VolpeNYYSS
69William ContrerasMILC
70Bryan ReynoldsPITOF
71Shota ImanagaCHCSP
72Oneil CruzPITSS
73Raisel IglesiasATLRP
74Paul GoldschmidtSTL1B
75Clay HolmesNYYRP
76Nico HoernerCHC2B/SS
77Alex BregmanHOU3B
78Spencer SteerCIN1B/3B/ OF
79J.T. RealmutoPHIC
80Jarren DuranBOSOF
81Grayson RodriguezBALSP
82Jhoan DuranMINRP
83Seiya SuzukiCHCOF
84Christopher MorelCHC3B/OF
85Edwin DiazNYMRP
86Alec BohmPHI1B/3B
87Gleyber TorresNYY2B
88Will SmithLADC
89George SpringerTOROF
90Nolan ArenadoSTL3B
91Willy AdamesMILSS
92Evan PhillipsLADRP
93Jeremy PenaHOUSS
94Justin SteeleCHCSP
95Mason MillerOAKRP
96Vinnie PasquantinoKC1B
97Luis ArraezSD2B
98Bryson StottPHI2B
99David BednarPITRP
100Tanner BibeeCLESP
101Justin VerlanderHOUSP
102Salvador PerezKCC/1B
103Andres MunozSEARP
104Jose BerriosTORSP
105Paul SkenesPITSP
106Tyler O’NeillBOSOF
107Ezequiel TovarCOLSS
108Anthony SantanderBALOF
109Carlos RodonNYYSP
110Ryan HelsleySTLRP
111Yu DarvishSDSP
112Nick CastellanosPHIOF
113Brandon NimmoNYMOF
114Riley GreeneDETOF
115Zach EflinTBSP
116Alexis DiazCINRP
117Trea TurnerPHISS
118Bobby MillerLADSP
119Taylor WardLAAOF
120Ha-Seong KimSD2B/SS/ 3B
121Ranger SuarezPHISP
122Bailey OberMINSP
123Chris BassittTORSP
124Yandy DiazTB1B
125Dansby SwansonCHCSS
126Kyle BradishBALSP
127Robert SuarezSDRP
128Hunter GreeneCINSP
129Isaac ParedesTB1B/3B
130Jordan RomanoTORRP
131Maikel GarciaKC3B
132Joe MusgroveSDSP
133Jordan WestburgBAL2B/3B
134Yainer DiazHOUC
135Royce LewisMIN3B
136Gerrit ColeNYYSP
137Kenley JansenBOSRP
138Evan CarterTEXOF
139Ian HappCHCOF
140Jorge SolerSFOF
141Nathaniel LoweTEX1B
142Craig KimbrelBALRP
143Daulton VarshoTOROF
144Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ARIOF
145Starling MarteNYMOF
146Jared JonesPITSP
147Ryan McMahonCOL2B/3B
148Rhys HoskinsMIL1B
149Blake SnellSFSP
150Cal RaleighSEAC
151Jesus LuzardoMIASP
152Lars NootbaarSTLOF
153Luis Robert Jr.CHWOF
154Ryan MountcastleBAL1B
155Jack FlahertyDETSP
156Mitch KellerPITSP
157Jake BurgerMIA3B
158Jordan MontgomeryARISP
159Steven KwanCLEOF
160Nestor CortesNYYSP
161Paul SewaldARIRP
162Thairo EstradaSF2B/SS
163Mike TroutLAAOF
164Tanner ScottMIARP
165Bryce MillerSEASP
166Cedric MullinsBALOF
167Walker BuehlerLADSP
168Charlie MortonATLSP
169Nolan JonesCOLOF
170Jackson ChourioMILOF
171Yusei KikuchiTORSP
172Edouard JulienMIN2B
173Garrett CrochetCHWSP
174Carlos CorreaMINSS
175Luis RengifoLAA2B/SS/ 3B/OF
176Lane ThomasWSHOF
177Andrew VaughnCHW1B
178Christian Encarnacion-StrandCIN1B
179Pete FairbanksTBRP
180Nick PivettaBOSSP
181Kyle FinneganWSHRP
182Michael KingSDSP
183Jeimer CandelarioCIN1B/3B
184Jonathan IndiaCIN2B
185Kerry CarpenterDETOF
186Matt ChapmanSF3B
187Max ScherzerTEXSP
188Spencer TorkelsonDET1B
189Logan O’HoppeLAAC
190Reid DetmersLAASP
191Brandon PfaadtARISP
192Ke’Bryan HayesPIT3B
193Aaron CivaleTBSP
194Nathan EovaldiTEXSP
195Anthony RizzoNYY1B
196Jonah HeimTEXC
197Jose AlvaradoPHIRP
198Brayan BelloBOSSP
199Bryan WooSEASP
200Kirby YatesTEXRP
201Carlos EstevezLAARP
202Josh LoweTBOF
203Tanner HouckBOSSP
204Cristopher SanchezPHISP
205Eloy JimenezCHWDH
206Willson ContrerasSTLC
207Wyatt LangfordTEXOF
208Cristian JavierHOUSP
209MacKenzie GoreWSHSP
210Byron BuxtonMINOF
211Ryan PepiotTBSP
212Jake FraleyCINOF
213Brice TurangMIL2B/SS
214Kodai SengaNYMSP
215Bryan De La CruzMIAOF
216Zach NetoLAASS
217Gabriel MorenoARIC
218Ryan JeffersMINC
219Giancarlo StantonNYYOF
220Justin TurnerTOR1B
221Hunter BrownHOUSP
222Josh BellMIA1B
223Ceddanne RafaelaBOSSS/OF
224Max MuncyLAD3B
225Xander BogaertsSD2B/SS
226Brendan DonovanSTL2B/OF
227Zack GelofOAK2B
228Max KeplerMINOF
229Taj BradleyTBSP
230Kutter CrawfordBOSSP
231Vaughn GrissomBOSSS
232Jo AdellLAAOF
233Jason FoleyDETRP
234Luis GarciaWSH2B
235Marcus StromanNYYSP
236Sean MurphyATLC
237Merrill KellyARISP
238Christian ScottNYMSP
239Nolan GormanSTL2B
240Brenton DoyleCOLOF
241J.D. MartinezNYMDH
242Tyler StephensonCINC
243Keibert RuizWSHC
244Brendan RodgersCOL2B
245Lance LynnSTLSP
246Seth LugoKCSP
247Chas McCormickHOUOF
248Nick LodoloCINSP
249Brady SingerKCSP
250Brandon MarshPHIOF
251Luis GilNYYSP
252Masataka YoshidaBOSOF
253Alex VerdugoNYYOF
254Jake CronenworthSD1B/2B
255Luis CampusanoSDC
256Braxton GarrettMIASP
257Jackson MerrillSDSS/OF
258James McArthurKCRP
259J.P. CrawfordSEASS
260MJ MelendezKCOF
261Ryan O’HearnBAL1B/OF
262Jorge PolancoSEA2B
263Reynaldo LopezATLSP
264Tommy PhamCHWOF
265Josh JungTEX3B
266Leody TaverasTEXOF
267Andrew AbbottCINSP
268Brandon DruryLAA1B/2B
269Brent RookerOAKOF
270Hector NerisCHCRP
271Mitch GarverSEAC
272Will BensonCINOF
273Clarke SchmidtNYYSP
274Tommy EdmanSTL2B/SS/ OF
275Brandon LoweTB2B
276Jeff McNeilNYM2B/OF
277Wilyer AbreuBOSOF
278Jordan HicksSFSP
279Sean ManaeaNYMSP
280Orlando ArciaATLSS
281Ty FranceSEA1B
282Trevor MegillMILRP
283Michael KopechCHWRP
284TJ FriedlCINOF
285Gavin WilliamsCLESP
286Sal FrelickMILOF
287Danny JansenTORC
288Elias DiazCOLC
289Eugenio SuarezARI3B
290Shea LangeliersOAKC
291Triston CasasBOS1B
292Colton CowserBALOF
293Devin WilliamsMILRP
294Jarred KelenicATLOF
295Luis SeverinoNYMSP
296Michael WachaKCSP
297Kyle HarrisonSFSP
298Bo NaylorCLEC
299Michael BuschCHC1B/3B
300Miles MikolasSTLSP
301Jason AdamTBRP
302Joc PedersonARIOF
303Jack SuwinskiPITOF
304Kris BryantCOLOF
305Adbert AlzolayCHCRP
306Kyle GibsonSTLSP
307Charlie BlackmonCOLOF
308Jon GrayTEXSP
309Andrew BenintendiCHWOF
310Hunter HarveyWSHRP
311Connor WongBOSC
312Ryan PresslyHOURP
313Zack LittellTBSP
314Griffin JaxMINRP
315Andy PagesLADOF
316Willi CastroMINSS/3B/OF
317Kenta MaedaDETSP
318Michael MasseyKC2B
319Junior CamineroTBSS/3B
320Nolan SchanuelLAA1B
321Jordan WalkerSTLOF
322Mark CanhaDETOF
323Ronel BlancoHOUSP
324Kevin GinkelARIRP
325Erick FeddeCHWSP
326Jose SiriTBOF
327Patrick SandovalLAASP
328Jackson HollidayBAL2B/SS
329Reed GarrettNYMRP
330Triston McKenzieCLESP
331Eduardo RodriguezARISP
332Esteury Ruiz OAKOF
333Jalen BeeksCOLRP
334Reese OlsenDETSP
335Javier AssadCHCSP
336Brett BatyNYM3B
337James OutmanLADOF
338Tim AndersonMIASS
339Alex KirilloffMIN1B/OF
340Masyn WinnSTLSS
341Yimi GarciaTORRP
342Dane DunningTEXSP
343Alejandro KirkTORC
344Shane BazTBSP
345David RobertsonTEXRP
346Jesus SanchezMIAOF
347Matt StrahmPHIRP
348Jose CaballeroTB2B/SS
349Davis SchneiderTOR2B/OF
350Jurickson ProfarSDOF
351Jameson TaillonCHCSP
352Logan AllenCLESP
353James PaxtonLADSP
354James WoodWSHOF
355Jose QuintanaNYMSP
356Elehuris MonteroCOL1B
357Jake MeyersHOUOF
358Tyler FreemanCLE3B/OF
359Mitch HanigerSEAOF
360JP SearsOAKSP
361Jacob YoungWSHOF
362Tyler AndersonLAASP
363Joey OrtizMIL2B/3B
364Frankie MontasCINSP
365LaMonte Wade Jr.SF1B/OF
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