Rest of Season Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Sandman Enters the Top-20

It is becoming increasingly rare to see a starting pitcher hurl 200 innings in a season. A generation ago, the feat was rather commonplace. Who can forget the epic 1996 campaign of Scott Erickson, who went 13-12 with a 5.02 ERA and 4.05 K/9 in 222.1 innings? As recently as 2013, 36 pitchers reached the 200 innings plateau. Just four pitchers made it to that mark a season ago. While the shortened season in 2020 may have had some effect on that, it is clear that the game has changed in terms of what is expected from a starting pitcher. This is what makes what Sandy Alcantara has accomplished thus far this season all the more impressive.

Alcantara is one of the four who eclipsed the 200 innings barrier last season. And he is currently on pace to best that mark. Alcantara leads the Majors with 83.2 innings pitched. No other pitcher has thrown more than 75 innings to date. Alcantara is not just providing length – he is providing quality results. Among qualified starters (an increasingly rare group, to be fair), Alcantara ranks third in ERA (1.61) as well as xERA (2.52). He also ranks fifth in batting average allowed (.189) and ninth in WHIP (0.94). His strikeout rate is middle of the pack (26th among 61 qualifiers). But the length he offers mitigates that, as he enters the weekend tied for seventh with 77 punchouts. That volume!

Alcantara’s Arsenal

Alcantara is the only pitcher in baseball who has a usage rate of at least 20 percent on four different pitches. Of course, usage does not mean a whole lot if the results are substandard. But that is not the case with Alcantara. All four of his pitches have a Run-Value of -2 or less, per Statcast. He is one of just six pitchers in MLB who can make that claim.

Alcantara can bring the heat, as his average fastball is at 97.8 MPH. But part of what makes Alcantara so difficult to manage is the horizontal movement he gets on his pitches. His four-seam fastball runs into left-handed hitters, while his sinker does the same to righties. He does not get a ton of swings and misses with those two offerings (23.4% and 14.9% whiff rates, respectively), but he can attack hitters with these pitches effectively which sets them up to be put away with his devastating changeup (primarily to lefties) and slider (mostly to right-handed batters). Though he tends to attack lefties with the four-seamer/change combo and righties with the sinker/slider, he does mix it up enough to where a hitter cannot be sitting on a particular pitch in a given count.

Among 88 pitchers who have induced at least 150 batted-ball events, Alcantara ranks fourth in sweet-spot percentage (24.8%) and barrels per plate appearance (2.8%) allowed. He also ranks sixth in average exit velocity (86.4 MPH) and 16th in hard-hit rate (33.6%). Alcantara is quickly becoming a master of the art of pitching, and it is a joy to watch. There will be bumps in the road. His work will be cut out for him in his next start against the red-hot Philadelphia Phillies. Pitching in a division that features Juan Soto and Bryce Harper, not to mention the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves will have its fair share of landmines. But I believe Alcantara is up for the challenge. He is in the top-20 overall in my latest rankings, and I expect him to be a top-five starter provided a clean bill of health.

Rest of Season Fantasy Baseball Rankings