Rest of Season Fantasy Baseball Rankings: The Curious Case of Christian Walker

If I asked you to name the player who currently leads all National League first basemen in xSLG, your first guess would probably be the current frontrunner for NL MVP, Paul Goldschmidt. Or perhaps former MVP Freddie Freeman. Maybe Mets star Pete Alonso is your pick. Well, you would be wrong on each count. That distinction belongs to Christian Walker of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Yes, the same Christian Walker who enters the weekend batting .211. So what is going on with Walker, and how should we value him going forward? Before we get to my latest ROS rankings, here are some thoughts on the Diamondbacks’ first baseman.

Christian Walker Profile

I have been a bit late to the Christian Walker party this season. I do not have him on any of my fantasy teams, and Diamondbacks games are not exactly appointment viewing for me as an old man on the East Coast. And while batting average isn’t quite the measuring stick it was a generation ago, a .211 clip is still a bit of an eyesore. However, it’s not like Kyle Schwarber (he of the .224 batting average) is racking up a ton of hits. But at least Schwarber is generally recognized for his prowess. I have Schwarber ranked 75^th overall in this week’s rest-of-season rankings. The Expert Consensus Rankings has him 76th. Yet most analysts (myself included up until this week) consistently rank Walker outside the top 200 overall. If you look at his Statcast metrics, you might change your mind.

The xSLG (expected slugging) and xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) are what initially caught my eye when scouring the leaderboards. But his Statcast metrics have been borderline elite this season. I was expecting to see a Statcast page that looked similar to last year’s (pictured below), or perhaps some slight improvement in a couple of areas. But Walker has drastically improved in nearly every phase as a hitter. He has gone from a 38^th percentile mark in average exit velocity last season to the 73^rd percentile this year. Last year he had a 6.4 percent barrel rate. This year that number is 14.9. He was below average in both walk rate and chase rate in 2021. He is in the top 13 percent of all hitters in both categories this season. The only thing that hasn’t improved is his batting average.

To that end, the main culprit is his BABIP. In each of his first three full MLB seasons, Walker had a BABIP between .307 and .317. This season, that number currently sits at .194. Only Max Muncy has a lower number among 155 qualified hitters. If Walker were around that .300 BABIP mark, his batting average would be a lot closer to his xBA mark of .271. And if that were the case, we would be talking about him as a potential All-Star and candidate for the Most Improved Player award. Instead, the 31-year-old continues to do most of his work in relative obscurity. To be fair, he seems to have consciously traded in some line drives for fly balls, and is a lot more pull-happy. So perhaps a BABIP closer to .280 would be more reasonable. Still, that would do wonders for his already-increasing fantasy value.

Walker is arbitration-eligible next season, so I expect him to remain in the desert throughout the summer. It would be nice to see what he could do on a better offense. Only Cincinnati, Washington, and Pittsburgh average fewer runs per game among National League teams. Still, it is hard to argue with what Walker has achieved this season. I think as a whole we are not giving Walker full credit for the improvements he has made at the plate. If you need power down the stretch, you may be able to swing a deal for Walker if his manager believes that he will continue to narrowly avoid the interstate. I think it is very possible Walker can hit .250 the rest of the way, which means he is probably closer to a top-50 hitter going forward than where even I currently have him ranked.

Rest of Season Fantasy Baseball Rankings