The push to the fantasy football playoffs continues! Identifying risers and fallers to help guide difficult lineup decisions can help keep our teams on the right path. As always, I’ll also name one player on the hot seat. Now that we’re 10 weeks into this season, there are plenty of teams with a 5-5 record across the game of fantasy football. It’s a big week to add one to the win column with playoffs on the horizon.
Week 11 Risers, Fallers, and Who is on The Hot Seat
Risers
Three Notable Running Back Tandems
- The Detroit Lions: In David Montgomery’s return, Jahmyr Gibbs is the one who stole the show early on. Montgomery saw the first carry of the game for the Lions, but in the blink of an eye, Gibbs scored two first-quarter touchdowns to put the Lions up 17-3 early on. In fact, both scores were from the one-yard line which is where Montgomery typically gets the rock. Montgomery ripped off a 75-yard score of his own proving that this backfield can sustain success amongst both players. Moving forward, especially against the Bears in Week 11, I expect close to 15 or more touches for each player per game. They have the potential to both finish as top-12 running backs from here on out.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers: In the Steelers’ first five games, Jaylen Warren scored more fantasy points than Najee Harris in each game. In fact, Najee Harris was on my Week 4 hot seat after averaging just 5.7 points per game in the first three weeks. Since their Week 6 bye, Najee is a major riser as the RB13 while Warren is the RB19 on a point-per-game basis. Warren still has a bit more upside in the passing game, but both can be started as RB2s for the rest of the season.
- The Washington Commanders: To a lesser extent than the two riser backfields above, the Commanders duo are both on the fantasy radar after Brian Robinson dominated most of the attention this season. Robinson’s overall RB1 finish makes him a riser with consideration to his ceiling. Gibson, though, is also a riser after a third-straight game of significant involvement on offense. In Week 10, Gibson drew six targets, catching one for a touchdown. That’s now 16 total targets in the last three games. After averaging just 4.5 touches per game in the Commanders’ first seven, Gibson now has an average of nine touches per game in their last three. He’s a PPR flex with upside depending on matchup.
DeVonta Smith, Wide Receiver, Philadelphia Eagles
It’s hard to consider Smith a riser on an 8-1 team that’s tied for the third-most points per game in the NFL. However, for fantasy football purposes, Smith has four games this season of less than 10.0 points. It’s been a bit of a roller coaster for managers starting Smith each week expecting big numbers on the Eagles offense, but truly unsure if he’s going to produce alongside A.J. Brown.
Coming out of the Week 10 bye, the Eagles schedule is a buzzsaw. They first head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in Week 11. Then, the Eagles have back-to-back home games against the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers. At the end of this three-game run, they’ll then head to Dallas for a rematch with the Cowboys. I expect all four games to be competitive which is a fantasy-friendly game script for DeVonta Smith and the Eagles pass attack.
Additionally, tight end Dallas Goedert will be out for some time with a broken forearm. Last season, with Goedert out with an injury from Weeks 11 through 15, DeVonta Smith averaged eight targets per game. With said volume, Smith put up 15.8 fantasy points per game landing him inside the top 10 wide receivers during that stretch. He is a riser ahead of Week 11 based on a combination of his talent, schedule, and upcoming opportunities. If you have a trade deadline coming up, send out an offer for Smith before Week 11 kicks off.
T.J. Hockenson, Tight End, Minnesota Vikings
Just when you thought Hockenson couldn’t get any better this season, he’s a riser ahead of Week 11 now with quarterback Joshua Dobbs under center. Prior to Dobbs, Hockenson was averaging 14.6 points per game as the TE3 in fantasy football. In two games with Dobbs throwing his way, Hockenson is the TE1 averaging 22.2 points per game. So, yeah, a riser from near the top to the top of the position, but a riser nonetheless!
So, why the sudden boost in success? Well, Hockenson is a reliable target for newcomer Joshua Dobbs until Justin Jefferson retakes the field. However, even with Jefferson back in action, Dobbs was already targeting his tight ends on 32% of his passes this season prior to his trade to Minnesota. That trend is right on the money with the Vikings as Hockenson has drawn a 30% target share thus far with Dobbs under center.
It’s going to be hard to acquire Hockenson after scoring 43.3 fantasy points on 21 targets over the last two weeks. However, if the team with Hockenson needs help at other positions, you should be offering your current tight end plus a player at their position of need to get Hockenson. He was already a set-and-forget tight end who has now risen to league-winner status going into Week 11.
Fallers
Saquon Barkley, Running Back, New York Giants
With just 11.8 points per game this season, the New York Giants now rank dead last in scoring. They have put up just 11.0 points per game over this last three. With quarterback Daniel Jones (ACL) on the Injured Reserve, the Giants offense has Tommy DeVito under center. That just obliterates any sort of ceiling for this offense, specifically Saquon Barkley.
Though Barkley is on the faller list, that’s not to say he shouldn’t be in fantasy lineups. It would just be better if he’s in someone else’s. I think trading Saquon ahead of Week 11 is a move managers who have him on their roster should look to make. You can sell Saquon’s upside on the fact that the Giants play the Washington Commanders this week. They are a good matchup for running backs as they’ve allowed the 12th-most rushing and eighth-most receiving yards to the position.
Looking ahead, however, Saquon’s Week 13 bye is looming. His fantasy football playoff schedule then opens with a road matchup with the New Orleans Saints and semi-final matchups on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles. Both of these teams rank in the bottom four in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs.
Saquon Barkley is by far the best player on the Giants’ roster. He’s still a threat to rack up 100 or more all-purpose yards on roughly 20 touches any given game. Trusting and investing in a player who’s running for a team with a legitimate shot at the top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft makes me nervous when trying to win a 2023 fantasy football title. His ceiling is more of a back-end RB1 for the rest of the season.
George Pickens, Wide Receiver, Pittsburgh Steelers
Even with a 6-3 record, the Steelers offense is averaging just 17.3 points per game which ranks 26th in the league thus far. Their run game is starting to click with aforementioned risers Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren both finding success as of late. Their passing game on the other hand is difficult to stomach. Quarterback Kenny Pickett hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards since Week 7. Additionally, Pickett’s 235 passing yards in Week 3 is his season-high.
This makes starting any Steelers receiver difficult to do. If any, it has to be the top target who, as of late, is Diontae Johnson. Since returning from a hamstring injury, Johnson has 33 total targets over the last four games. George Pickens has 22. If you remove Johnson’s first game back and look at the last three, he has 27 to Pickens’ 14.
Pickens drew a season-low four targets in Week 10. He is an obvious fantasy football faller after sustaining five games worth of success without Diontae Johnson. The Steelers passing volume and success just don’t exist to a level in which fantasy managers can trust Pickens alongside of Johnson as of now. Now, Johnson is dealing with a new thumb injury. So, if he is set to miss any more time, Pickens comes back into play.
With two divisional matchups on the road up next, against the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh needs Pickens to be more of a riser if they want to try and win the AFC North. For now, Pickens is left on benches especially if Johnson does play.
The Week 11 Hot Seat
Tony Pollard, Running Back, Dallas Cowboys
Picture this: It’s Week 1 on Sunday Night Football. Tony Pollard just rushed for his second touchdown of the game. The Dallas Cowboys are up 33-0 over the New York Giants. Life is good!
Since then, however, Tony Pollard has not found the end zone. He is on a nine-week scoring dry spell! Even in a Week 10 blowout in which the Cowboys scored 49 points and racked up 640 total yards on offense, Pollard rushes for just 55 yards on 15 carries!
This is a consensus third-round pick for most people’s fantasy teams that we’re talking about here. For some, a second-round pick. Needless to say, Pollard is on the Week 11 hot seat which may be the hottest of the season. Now, there have been plenty of players I’ve placed on the hot seat this season that bounce back, sometimes immediately, and get back in our good graces. Tony Pollard has a fantastic opportunity to do so in Week 11.
Pollard and the Cowboys head to Carolina to face the Panthers in Week 11. Their defense is notably allowing the most rushing touchdowns to running backs this season. In just nine games, the Panthers have allowed a league-high 13 rushing touchdowns to the position. It’s a great opportunity for Pollard to end the scoring drought. I expect Dallas to maintain a lead for most of this game. Pollard should see his typical 15-20 touches and, despite being on my Week 11 hot seat, is a must-start in this matchup.
Week 11 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Half-PPR by Position | Flex Rankings | Positional Ranks w/ K & DST | Dynasty | Superflex Dynasty