Ahhhhh ADP. Boy, that thing sure does move in the wake of significant news. Players are moving like crazy now that the preseason has officially started. In other words, folks: It’s about to get real. Fantasy Football season is upon us! One of the toughest decisions gamers will have to make on draft day is overlooking a player they like because of his rising ADP.
I get it. Sometimes you have to pull the trigger. In 2016 I was bullish on Mike Evans. His ADP was around where it is now (2.12)- maybe even lower. My second round pick was at the 2.09 slot in a 10-team league and I jumped for Evans. It turned out to be a great move as he finished as the WR2 overall that season.
Conversely, after Julian Edelman was ruled out for the season last Summer, Brandin Cooks’ had a rising ADP that was nonstop until draft day (I usually draft at the end of the preseason in my big-money leagues). With Cooks being the clear No. 1 WR in New England, I gave in to temptation early in the third round. Cooks finished as the WR15 in PPR and Todd Gurley was still on the board. Ouch.
So, let’s try to justify players’ rising ADP while tempering enthusiasm in this week’s edition of Fantasy Stock Watch.
Justifying Rising ADP
Jordan Howard
Current ADP: 2.10
Projected ADP: 2.07
Jordan Howard is getting some love. I thought he was going to be a value pick this season at the end of the third round. In some cases, he does slip so keep an eye on him in your draft. Howard has carried the ball 250-plus times in each of his first two seasons in the NFL. 1,310 rushing yards in 2016, his rookie season, and 1,120 last year. The knock on him is his inability to catch the football.
Matt Nagy’s praise of Howard this offseason is undoubtedly a factor in Howard’s rising ADP. I do expect Howard to exceed his career-high in targets this season (50) which will increase his weekly opportunity. Although Howard did have 276 carries in 2017, his floor was so low on a given week because John Fox would simply phase him out depending on game script. When Howard was getting touches, they were often not very meaningful at times and it caused Howard to have some very bad weeks for Fantasy.
Those bad weeks will decrease this season with the improved Bears offense. Mitch Trubisky has weapons and that will help open up things for Howard in the rushing game and through the air. Howard is not a great pass-catcher, that is true. But, he will be able to convert some of those targets into big plays in 2018. Be careful with his ADP but feel good about drafting Howard if he slips into the third round.
Jarvis Landry
Current ADP: 5.02
Projected ADP: 4.09
My mind was blown in June when Landry’s ADP was 5.12 and he was being taken as the WR25. That’s right. Last year’s WR4 was the 25th receiver taken off the board during drafts two months ago. The value there is incredible regardless if you expect Landry to regress in 2018 on the Browns.
Regression would be obvious even if Landry were still on the Dolphins. In 2017 Landry had 112 receptions on 161 targets for 987 yards and nine touchdowns. Aside from the yardage, those are all career-highs for the 25-year-old. Career-highs scream perceived regression but so do career-lows. If we assume his targets, receptions, and touchdowns will decrease then we must assume his yardage will increase based on the same logic. Landry had 1,100 receiving yards in two-straight seasons.
Landry is now being taken as the WR23 in PPR and I still believe he has 100-catch upside. The Josh Gordon situation is murky but even with him on the field, Landry will be the target-leader for the Browns. Gordon and rookie Antonio Callaway will get a lot of work on the outside while Landry roams in the slot for Tyrod Taylor.
Do not sleep on Landry’s talent and offensive coordinator Todd Haley’s ability to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers. Even if the Former LSU standouts rising ADP jumps into the fourth round, he is still a value in Fantasy Football.
Robby Anderson
Current ADP: 8.05
Projected ADP: 7.08
I am coming around on Robby Anderson. I was not sure if he was even going to play this year based on his legal issues. It looks like he will be on the field, however, going into Week 1. Guys like Anderson were made for the preseason. The undrafted receiver out of Temple plays with a chip on his shoulder regardless of how meaningful the game is. His 4.41 40-yard dash speed makes him a touchdown threat and as soon as he catches a bomb from Josh McCown in an exhibition game, you can bet your bottom dollar his ADP will soar.
Anderson will be the “X” receiver seemingly for the most part when he is on the field for the Jets. Anderson was on the field 78.19 percent of the Jets’ snaps in 2017 and 2018 will be no different. At 6’3”, 190-pounds, Anderson has a lean frame that can burn defenders and gives him a better chance of grabbing those 50/50 deep-balls down the sideline.
It does look as though Sam Darnold has a great chance of being the Week 1 starter which presents a concern for the third-year wideout. McCown and Anderson formed a chemistry last season that was one of the few positives for the Jets. Anderson still is a great upside pick, however, even when his ADP enters the seventh round.
Chris Hogan
Current ADP: 5.08
Projected ADP: 5.04
Hogan was lights out from Weeks 2 through 5 in 2017. He had at least four catches, 60 yards, and a touchdown in each of those four games. Injury prevented him from continuing that hot streak or else he may have finished as a WR2 in Fantasy (even though he was projected as a WR1 based on that production). Now, Hogan is being drafted as the first Patriots’ wide receiver in Fantasy drafts.
I am convinced there is better value later in the draft with another Patriots’ wideout. The AFC powerhouse just released Malcolm Mitchell and Jordan Matthews and signed Eric Decker. Kenny Britt, Phillip Dorsett, Cordarrelle Patterson, Hogan, and Decker will all be used more in the first four games of the season with Julian Edelman missing time.
I see the starting three wide receivers as Hogan and Britt on the outside with Decker in the slot. While the Patriots will change this up often, I project this to be their most reoccurring three-receiver set. Decker and Britt will have just as much opportunity as Hogan whose career-high in targets is 61. That is less than James White had last season (72).
Fade Hogan’s rising ADP and find a Patriots’ wide receiver late that can put up comparable numbers. Once Edelman returns in Week 5, he will take over as the Patriots No.1 wide receiver. His ADP is 6.06.
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