Robby Anderson was drafted as a late flier last season and paid huge dividends for Fantasy owners. After being selected as the 57th receiver off the board, he finished as the overall WR16. Anderson’s breakout season has resulted in a boost in his draft stock. But that boost is not as significant as one might think. This year he is being drafted as the overall WR43.
Before I go into the reasons Anderson’s draft stock should be higher, I will admit there are a couple of reasons for the preseason pessimism. First, the return of Quincy Enunwa and the free agent signing of Terrelle Pryor threaten to prevent Anderson from duplicating his 2017 target share. There are also off-field concerns that may have Fantasy players shying away. Anderson was arrested and charged with reckless driving and resisting arrest back in January. The charges have since been dropped and it appears he may avoid suspension, but the incident may have soured some owners on the third-year wideout from Temple. Finally, (and I say this with love) it’s the Jets. The Jets have not been relevant in several years and their skill players leave plenty to be desired. The exception to that, however, should be Robby Anderson.
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The argument that Enunwa and Pryor will hurt Anderson simply does not hold water. The Jets still have 162 available targets from last year’s roster. This ranks in the top half of the NFL and should ease concerns that Anderson will see a reduced workload in 2018. His play on the field last season should dictate a bigger role in New York’s offense this year, not a smaller one. As I mentioned above, Anderson finished 16th among all wide receivers in fantasy points. Total fantasy points don’t always tell the whole story. But in Anderson’s case, he was an upper-echelon wide receiver by almost any measure:
Robby Anderson 2017 Profile
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For those not familiar with the more analytical statistics, total air yards are the brainchild of Josh Hermsmeyer, who has changed the way a lot of people look at wide receivers for fantasy purposes. Total air yards are basically the total yards on pass attempts to a wide receiver. This measures the intent of a quarterback to get the ball to his playmakers down the field. The top receivers in this category last season were DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, and Mike Evans. I’d say it’s a pretty good barometer for wide receiver value.
WOPR stands for Weighted Opportunity Rating. It takes a player’s target share and total air yards share and is used to predict wide receiver fantasy points. The players ahead of Anderson on this list in 2017 were Hopkins, Brown, Green, Jones, Michael Thomas, Adam Thielen, Odell Beckham, and Keenan Allen. Once again, Anderson is in elite company.
Average depth of target (aDOT) is a statistic that Mike Clay came up with, and it is exactly what it sounds like. It’s essentially total air yards divided by targets. The asterisk in the chart is to denote that for this category, I only took receivers who had at least 70 targets. Otherwise, the list would be lousy with the likes of Jeff Janis and Darrius Heyward-Bey.
Whether you use the standard statistics and categories or the more advanced metrics, Robby Anderson has the look of a legitimate Top-20 NFL wide receiver. And his numbers would have likely been even better last year had Josh McCown not gotten injured in Week 14. Now, before you think my homer-ism is getting the best of me, let me point out that I am fully aware of the fact that Josh McCown is not an elite NFL quarterback. But he is way better than Bryce Petty. Anderson was saddled with Petty beginning in Week 14 when McCown broke his hand earlier in the game. In essentially three and a half games with Petty at the helm, Anderson caught 11 of 24 targets for 93 yards and no scores. Woof.
McCown is currently listed atop the Jets’ depth chart at quarterback. The veteran is no lock to play 16 games this season, but when he is on the field, he will ensure that Anderson gets his share of targets down the field. Even if McCown is replaced at some point by either Teddy Bridgewater or rookie Sam Darnold, any hit to Anderson’s production should be much smaller than the one that took place last season.
Anderson is currently going in the ninth round of drafts. A simple repeat of his 2017 season would return fourth-round value, and a bump up to WR1 status is not out of the question. Even if Anderson sees a slight dip in production, we are still talking about a starting fantasy wide receiver. Julian Edelman and Corey Davis are currently going three rounds ahead of Anderson. Edelman is suspended for four games and Davis has never caught a touchdown pass in a regular season game. Anderson should be going much higher than he is, and he is one of my favorite values this draft season.
