The next two weeks is a gap in the PGA schedule I like to call, “The Calm before the Storm.” Following three consecutive weeks of huge events, including two Signature Events and The U.S. Open, we have 2 weeks of weaker fields as we wait in anticipation for the climax of the season. Following The Rocket Mortgage Classic and John Deere Classic, all focus will shift overseas for the final major of the season, and soon after to The FedEx Cup Playoffs. Get your rest now while you can, because July and August will be jam-packed with incredible golf.
I say this is a weak field for a few reasons. Notably, the biggest name opting into this field is probably Tom Kim, the opening favorite at +1200. Most of the big guns have played 3 straight weekends of long and demanding courses, so it makes sense for a break in their schedule ahead of the most important month of the season. While the field is weaker than typical, there is still plenty of good golf to be played. If you enjoy watching professional golfers pile up birdie after birdie, The Rocket Mortgage Classic is the tournament for you. Let’s take a closer look at Detroit Golf Club and what it’ll take to come out on top.
The Course: Detroit Golf Club
The 7,350-yard par 72 will not pose much of a threat to any of the 152 golfers this week. The yardage would suggest it’s fairly long, but in its 5 years running on Tour, distance has not been an issue for anyone, even the shorter hitters. The reason for this is most likely the ability to take a driver on every Par 4 and 5. The rough is not penal in the slightest, and it would take an incredibly errant shot to hit a hazard. Wide fairways provide a huge landing spot off the tee, which is why The Rocket Mortgage Classic has been a bomb-and-gouge type event, where the bigger hitters typically thrive.
Driving success won’t win the tournament for anyone, but it certainly is important. Most of the bigger hitters will have wedges in their hand on approach shots, making this a true pitch and putt contest. Putting has historically been very difficult in Detroit, as it has really hindered historically bad putters. The winner will be a longer hitter who has a great week with his wedges and can finish off most of his opportunities. To win, they’ll most likely have to get to the mid-twenties under par. This means there is very little to no room for error. One bad day in the 70s will all but take you out of contention. It should be an exciting watch!
Best Bets: Rocket Mortgage Classic
Stephan Jaeger (+3000)
Stephan Jaeger has a special place in my heart, and Detroit Golf Club does in his heart as well. Jaeger was my first winner as a part of Fantrax, backing him at 45-1 in Houston this March. Although with much lower odds this time around, I think Jaeger will have another good shot to make me a winner once again.
I say Detroit Golf Club has a special place in Stephan Jaeger’s heart because of his fantastic history here. Last year, a Sunday 63 helped propel him inside the Top 10. In 2022, Jaeger finished in 5th while gaining strokes across the board. In fact, both of those finishes were Jaeger’s best finishes for those seasons. So in back to back years, Jaeger’s best outing has come in Detroit. After already winning this season, he’ll have to win again to keep this trend going! He comes into Detroit having gained over 6 strokes from Tee to Green at The U.S. Open and Travelers Championship. His putter has let him down, but expect that to change this weekend.
Stephan Jaeger has been extremely hit or miss with putting this season but has historically putted well at Detroit Golf Club. He gained 2.5 strokes last year and 5 in 2022. If he can keep the ball-striking form together and have the putter get hot, Stephan Jaeger will be atop the leaderboard come Sunday. And I believe 30-1 is a fair price, considering his history here and the weaker field. He’ll be much lower by the weekend!
Lee Hodges (+7500)
I don’t think I’ve ever bet on Lee Hodges, but this is the week to do so. His game has been trending in the right direction for 2 months, and with this weak field and scoreable course, Hodges is primed for his second win on Tour.
Hodges comes into Detroit having gained strokes Approaching the Green in 7 consecutive events. Prior to last week’s Travelers Championship, he has gained strokes Putting in 5 straight events as well. That’s the name of the game here, and Hodges plays that game better than 90% of this weak field. His history here is not great, but there are a ton of similarities between Detroit Golf Club and TPC Twin Cities, where Hodges grabbed his lone win on Tour by 7 strokes.
It would be nice if Lee Hodges had a solid finish here, but I have always given current form more weight than course history. Hodges has some of the best form in the field and a win at a similar course. I will happily take those and run with the 75-1 number sportsbooks are giving him. Show ‘em what you’re made of Lee!
Jake Knapp (+11000)
Jake Knapp is the perfect fit for Detroit Golf Club. He fits in with the big guns that can bomb and gauge their way to victory. He comes in having struggled over the past month, but I will not complain because that means we get odds as high as these! If this event had been in March, Knapp’s odds would be cut in half, and maybe even more.
Jake Knapp’s current form is not great, but is certainly on the rebound from a rut. Last week’s T48 stopped a run of 3 consecutive missed cuts. Prior to that, Knapp had played really well. He peaked in February, when he had a win, T3, and T4 in a span of 4 weeks. He had a stretch of 10 straight events gaining strokes on Approach. Most importantly, he hits the ball 20 yards further than the average Tour player. Knapp will have wedges in his hand on most of his approach shots, and that’s where he thrives. He’s top 10 in this field in proximity with wedges. His putter is hit or miss, but I will gladly take the chance on it getting hot at 110-1.
Jake Knapp has already shown us that he’s a winner. The 30 year old rookie can absolutely smack the ball, which paired with his elite wedge game makes him the perfect fit for Detroit Golf Club. If Knapp can get hot on the greens, I have no doubt he can join Rory and Scottie as the third player to win twice in 2024. And at 110-1, why not take a small chance? It could be well worth your dollar!