Everyone loves a long fly ball. Sometimes it’s not so great, like when it gives us nightmares of Chris Berman bellowing “Back! Back! Back! Back!” at the Home Run Derby, but don’t let that ruin fly balls. They’re the best way to hit for power, after all. You can’t hit a home run with a searing grounder, or even a blistering line drive. You’ve gotta get that pelota in the air, hombre! Today we look at Rougned Odor and Joey Gallo, two players who were heavy fly ball hitters even before it was cool. Before those trendy launch angle cats came slinking around. Fly balls can be a double-edged sword though, especially if you become a bit too fond of them.
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Fire – Rougned Odor
I’ll be the first to admit that I never imagined I’d be placing Rougned Odor under the Fire section this year. Through the first two months of the season, he looked more like an overmatched rookie than a five-year vet. He posted wRC+’s of 55 and 39 in April and May, respectively. He has never shown much in the way of plate discipline, but the 2.8 BB% and 33.3 K% in May, well, it’s hard to be a major leaguer with those numbers.
Then came June. The early season rain clouds parted, the sunshine warmed Odor’s face as he cocked his head back, and he began his assault on major league pitching. His wRC+ rose to a permissible 106 in June, but July is when the real tear began. He hit .341/.410/.625/1.035 with six home runs and six steals, good for a 176 wRC+. Unfortunately, this is after many of his owners cut bait on him, but what has changed to warrant such drastic results? Perhaps even more importantly, which Odor can we expect over the second half?
Let’s circle back to the plate discipline. I mentioned how awful it was in May, but he got things back under control in June. He picked his walk rate up to 9.1% (double his career rate of 4.6%) and cut the K’s back down to a manageable 23.2%. Those rates have held pretty steady through July, but that’s just the precursor to what the real change is here.
Rougned Odor has always been a heavy flyball hitter with a pretty strong pull-side tendency. It’s been a good approach for him really since it’s the best way for him to get to his in-game power. He lacks huge raw power, and you can see here that without a pull-heavy approach, he wouldn’t get many balls to leave the yard.
He’s only been able to muscle out a handful of home runs to the opposite field in his entire career. Of course, in addition to pulling the ball, you have to hit it in the air for it to leave the yard. Early in the season, Odor was taking this to the extreme. His career 40% fly ball rate is high enough, but he had been venturing closer to the upper-40’s until July came around. This is where it gets interesting.
Rougned Odor has made a big change in his batted balls in July, dropping his fly ball rate 15% from June. He hit 28% line drives instead while creating harder contact at 45%. We know that fly balls that don’t leave the yard are often easy outs, as are pop-ups. Perhaps the best news of the month (small sample caveats apply) is that his pop-up rate was down to 5.4%. He has long suffered from a bad pop-up issue, with a 14.3% career rate that is a real BABIP killer.
Odor claims to have been talking to teammate Shin-Soo Choo a lot this season, and credit’s him with the best plate discipline of his career. Choo is having a tremendous year himself, after all, so he’s a solid role model. Odor once again looks like a great source of power and speed (even though he’s still getting caught stealing half the time) and should be owned everywhere down the stretch.
Ice – Joey Gallo
You can’t spell fly ball without Joey Gallo. Alright, so that isn’t literally true, but when you think of modern-day fly ball mavens, Gallo has to be the first to come to mind. No one in baseball has a higher fly ball rate that Joey Gallo’s 53%. His approach is, by his own admission, all-or-nothing, and he doesn’t alter that even when in a two-strike count. While that nets you a lot of home runs, it can also cost you dearly elsewhere.
Since the start of June, Gallo is hitting a cool .151/.318/.424/.742 with a .152 BABIP and 36% K%. First things first: if you’re in an OBP league, you’re fine. The 19.0 BB% over that stretch keeps his OBP out of treacherous waters, as opposed to his batting average. You might take a look at that BABIP and project positive regression since the league average BABIP is around .300. In this instance, you can’t do that. As always, you can peek at this edition of the Sabermetric Series, which explains why hitting a ton of fly balls means BABIP death (Gallo also happens to be the poster boy for insane plate discipline). He also gets shifted heavily at nearly 90% of the time, which makes matters worse. There may be some positive regression to come, but not enough to get him much higher than a .200 AVG.
I’ve been a strong proponent of OBP over AVG in roto leagues for years, but most leagues are still AVG. So what are we to do with him in standard roto? One approach to take, especially in the heat of trade season right now, is to treat him as sort of the Billy Hamilton of home runs. Like with Hamilton, Gallo hurts your average (to an even more extreme extent). Take a look at your standings. If you can take the AVG hit but can gain several points in R/HR/RBI with a power slugging bat like Gallo, he could be a real difference maker.
Conversely, if you have accrued some bats that can step in for Gallo but hit for .100 more points of average, that can be a big deal over these last two months. You can then deal Gallo for another need. Assess your current situation and be proactive in dealing with your league-mates.
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