With the 2024 NFL Preseason officially underway, there’s no better time to assess where we are in terms of depth charts, opportunities, and expectations for the upcoming fantasy football season. In my opinion, the running back is the most important position to get right in fantasy football. There are only a handful who can/will make an impact every week, and it’s a very injury-prone position, leading more teams to deploy a running back by committee approach (making each individual running back deployed in said committee, less valuable). It’s our job to make sure you draft correctly every season, so let’s dive into three running backs you should avoid this year, despite the consensus opinion.
2024 Running Back Busts
Saquon Barkley
Philadephia Eagles, RB6 consensus vs. My RB16
Barkley is highly sought after for a reason. You’re not crazy if you are too. That’s not the purpose of this article. This will be his 7th year in the league, and in four of his six prior seasons, he’s been in the top ten in fantasy points per game for running backs. He’s been the unquestioned workhorse back every year of his career, with the thought of a running back by committee never becoming a reality in his time in New York. Furthermore, he’s going to the Philadelphia Eagles, who will likely challenge to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this year. That means he’ll have a better game script to run the ball than he did in New York when the Giants were almost never leading a game in the second half.
The reason I expect Barkley to fail to return his ADP value this year is because I believe with an ADP of RB6, there is hope that Barkley transitions to the Eagles, much like Christian McCaffrey transitioned to the 49ers, and I don’t believe that’s possible. First, the Eagles go as Jalen Hurts goes. They have a downfield offense that stars AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. Jalen Hurts is also dynamic outside of the pocket, which he uses as a tool primarily to give his receivers more time for separation (rather than tuck and run). When the Eagles do make it in the red zone (and inside the ten), they have the famed “tush push” play that results in Jalen Hurts scoring…not the running back. Last year, Barkley was 9th overall in red zone touches. A stat that is sure to drop for him going forward.
Further, Saquon’s ability to make a difference out of the backfield has been tantamount to his ability to return value to fantasy owners whether the Giants were able to compete or not. Barkley was 5th in the league for running back target share at ~15%. But guess what…the Eagles don’t throw to their running back at nearly the same rate the Giants have. In 2022 the Eagles were dead last in running back targets, with Gainwell leading the team with 29. Barkley had 76 that year. Last year, the Eagles acquired D’Andre Swift and he led the team with 49. That increase shows that Barkley lovers can have optimism that the Eagles may adjust to their personnel, but Barkley had 60 last year (and missed three games).
Lastly, the Eagles paid $37M over three years to secure Barkley’s rights. There are a couple of ways to look at that. Option A is that they’ll run him into the ground to get all the value they can out of him for three years and let him walk. Option B is that they want to value their investment and want to have Barkley as healthy as possible over the life of his contract because the trade market for an aging running back is relatively small. I think Option B is most likely, which means that while I think you can still expect Barkley to be a workhorse back, the likelihood that he takes multiple series per game off is more likely to keep him fresh. Either that, or you’ll see Kenneth Gainwell/Will Shipley take a few early-down carries in order to utilize Barkley’s elite reception skills for third-down optionality. In either scenario, he won’t have the role he had in New York. Barkley will have to fall to me in drafts. I won’t be reaching to get him.
Derrick Henry
Baltimore Ravens, RB8 consensus vs. My RB20
Much like Saquon Barkley, fantasy owners are expecting Derrick Henry to hit the ground running with his new team. When you look at Henry’s body of work, one thing is certain: Henry is going to score touchdowns…and DURABLY. In six of his past eight seasons, he’s played at least 15 games. On top of that, he’s scored at least 10 total touchdowns in six of his eight seasons. Henry is going to do what he does, as an elite mix of speed and bruising strength. That’s why the Ravens targeted him. I can’t imagine the fear in a defense with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry coming at the 2nd level of an offense with an option play. Absolute chaos. It’s why he currently sits at RB8 consensus.
But the reason I’m pumping my breaks on Henry this year is because of the following quote by Todd Monken, the Ravens’ Offensive Coordinator: “We’ll see how {his workload} goes. I mean, he’s been so durable… I still anticipate the same, of using all of our backs, trying to put them in the best position to be successful.” That is a damning quote to me. The Ravens have been the definition of backfield by committee for the past several years. The Ravens are 12th in the league in rushing attempts per game over the last three years. However, Lamar Jackson takes a share of those, and the rest is spread among their running back depth chart. Baltimore hasn’t had a running back lead the team in rushing since 2018. THAT IS A STUNNING STAT. That’s not because they’re waiting for a Derrick Henry. It’s because Lamar Jackson is this team’s identity AND their natural leading rusher. I don’t believe the Ravens will change their identity because they’ve improved their running back room. Betting on touchdowns scored isn’t how I want to spend my top few fantasy draft picks, and I feel that’s exactly what the consensus is doing. There’s too much risk involved for me.
D’Andre Swift
Chicago Bears, RB24 consensus vs. My RB29
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on you. Fool me five consecutive seasons? I am the fool, but there is no shame. No… I will have made a conscious choice to play the fool for a player that has all the traits to make an elite back, but never the stats to prove it. If Swift is an RB2 for you, I understand. I have had this thought process for the past four seasons. But let history be your guide. You truly can’t expect him to be anything more than a spot starter for you if you have an injury. And I think that’s the only way you’ll feel like he wasn’t a bust for you on your team.
I don’t like to be overly negative on players, because objectively speaking, D’Andre Swift should consider himself a success on and off the field. But as the imaginary GMs that all of us claim to be, I think it’s important to read this quote on Swift from Chicago’s Head Coach before you draft: He’s a weapon out of the backfield, which is outstanding for our passing game, and it’s gonna create some mismatches for us…we really needed that guy that could really operate on third down.” Draft Swift for depth, and not for your starting lineup, and you’ll have a very stress-free experience with him. If you put any more expectations for Swift on top of that… I can’t help you.
Got a beef with Bradlee’s 2024 Running Backs To Avoid? Let him hear about it in the comments below!