In my article last week, How to Hack Your Early Draft, I alluded to one bit of common fantasy baseball draft advice: be conservative with your first five or six picks. I wanted to elaborate on that this week. That advice is important because the early rounds are all about building the foundation of your team. Those players ought to be on your roster all year and in your lineup every day. Or once every fifth day for pitchers. Unlike the later rounds, you’re not chasing upside. You’re actually chasing lack of downside. Or, to use a phrase more common in fantasy baseball, you want to draft players with a high floor. That term basically means, barring a freak major injury, the worst-case scenario for a particular player’s production is still pretty darn good. He would still help you even if he gets unlucky.
Fortunately, there are lots of players like that in the early rounds. In fact, Round One is so stacked, I’m not even going to include any players from it. Sure, I’m a little nervous of Aaron Judge’s injury history. But even with only 100 games played, he’ll likely produce enough counting stats to make the ever-so-slight risk worth it.
So below, I’ll focus on the absolute safest players to target from round two to round six. Please note: this is based on a 12-team standard draft and ADPs are based on NFBC’s last 30 days.
Safest Players to Target in the 2nd Round
Matt Olson 1B Braves ADP 16
2023: 162 G/127 R/54 HR/139 RBI/1 SB/.283 AVG
A big part of having a high floor is proving that your body can withstand the rigors of a full season. Day after day and year after year, Matt Olson sure has proven that. In fact, he hasn’t missed a game since May of 2021! Add that durability with a career-year last season (stats above), the 2nd-most home runs over the last three years, and underlying metrics that leave no doubt that it’s for real (3rd best hard hit rate and 4th best average exit velocity in 2023), and you have the safest pick outside of the first round.
Austin Riley 3B Braves APD 18
2023: 159 G/117 R/37 HR/97 RBI/3 SB/.281 AVG
Maybe we should quickly give a shout-out to the Braves athletic training staff. Austin Reilly, Olson’s teammate, has only missed eight games over the past three years. That has allowed him to accumulate the 6th-most home runs during that time while producing a super consistent slash line of .286/.354/.525. He’s still just 26 years old, he’s still projected to hit behind Ronald Acuna Jr. and in front of the aforementioned Olson, and all his expected stats are in line with his production. The righty even recorded his hardest-hit ball just last season (116.1 MPH). And he has some surprising speed (70th percentile in 2023). If you’re picking in the middle of round two, this could be your foundational piece.
Francisco Lindor SS Mets ADP 23
2023: 160 G/108 R/31 HR/98 RBI/31 SB/.254 AVG
Fresh off his first 30/30 season, Francisco Lindor is an excellent power/speed option at the end of round two. He’s also very consistent. The 30-year-old has only played in less than 140 games once since 2016. And his average 4-category counting stats during that time (not including 2020) look like this: 101 Runs/27.9 HR/85.9 RBI/19.7 SB. The career .274 average isn’t bad either. Even his Statcast page shows a player that is pretty good at everything. All the batted ball and discipline metrics are at the 59th percentile or greater. That includes his 91.2 MPH average exit velocity (79th percentile) which was a career-best in 2023. Amid the high-variability chaos of other shortstops being drafted in the same range (ex. Seager with his extensive injury history, Elly De La Cruz with his inexperience and very high K rate, and Gunnar Henderson’s lack of track record), the veteran sure offers a calming high floor. In the second round, your lineup could use it.
Safest Players to Target in the 3rd Round
Zach Wheeler SP Phillies ADP 29
2023: 32 GS/192 IP/13-6 W-L/3.61 ERA/1.08 WHIP
Since signing as a free agent with the Phillies before the 2020 season, Zach Wheeler has been a model of consistency. He’s piled up 43 wins (6th-most), pitched to a 3.06 ERA (11th best), and has a fantastic 1.06 WHIP. He leads all starting pitchers in WAR over that span, too, and has averaged 30 starts over the last three seasons. Don’t worry, the 33-year-old also contributes in strikeouts. His 9.94 K/9 rate in 2023 was the second-highest of his career. It was good for 9th in the league overall. Along with underlying metrics that show the veteran still has it (68th percentile or greater in every category, plus a 3.18 xERA), there’s no better bet in the 3rd round for safe production.
Michael Harris OF Braves ADP 31
2023: 138 G/76 R/18 HR/57 RBI/20 SB/.293 AVG
After 252 career Major League games spanning two seasons, Michael Harris has slashed .295/.334/.494. Last year, the reigning Rookie of the Year increased his average exit velocity, his hard-hit rate, and his max exit velocity. In addition to that, his K rate improved significantly, from 24.3% to 18.7%. This number is much more in line with his career minor league rate of 19.1%. Makes sense. Harris is still just 22 years old. These numbers suggest he’s getting better. Last year, hitting out of the ninth spot of the batting order the majority of the time, he just missed going 20/20 and still managed to accumulate 76 runs in just 505 at-bats. He even underperformed his xBA (.304 which was 7th highest in baseball) and his xSLG (.490 vs. .477). And he got off to an extremely slow start after an April injury (was batting just .163 on June 6th).
Bottom line: last year was likely the lefty’s floor. He should give fantasy managers a minimum of these numbers. If the Braves move him to 6th in the order (he hit there on Monday with all the regulars in the lineup), we could see a big jump in counting stats. If not, you still have third-round production to fall back on.
Safest Players to Target in the 4th Round
Pablo Lopez SP Marlins ADP 40
2023: 32 GS/194 IP/11-8 W-L/234 K/3.66 ERA/1.15 WHIP
It took Pablo Lopez a while to put together a healthy season. From his rookie year in 2018 through 2021 the righty threw a max of just 111 innings. It’s been quite a different story the last two seasons, though. He’s made exactly 32 starts in both (good for 7th-most during that span), and last season set a career-high in innings with 194 (9th best). The results were pretty solid too (above). The strikeouts, in particular, were impressively the 3rd most in baseball. This was largely due to a 1.5 MPH increase in his fastball, resulting in a greatly increased whiff rate (from 23.4% to 31.5%). This, in turn, led to the best xERA of any pitcher to throw over 100 innings. That’s right, better than Spenser Strider, Gerrit Cole, or Corbin Burnes, the top three pitchers commonly off the board. Whether his velocity improvements stick or not, though, his track record of near-elite walk rates and elite chase rates should keep the floor nice and high. He’s the safest pick in round four.
Randy Arozarena OF Rays ADP 43
2023: 151 G/95 R/23 HR/83 RBI/22 SB/.254 AVG
Randy Arozarena is very consistent too. Are you sensing a pattern here? He’s essentially been a Major League regular for three seasons and in every one of them, he’s hit at least 20 home runs and stolen at least 20 bases. Last year was in many ways the best of the bunch as he set career-high marks in runs (95), home runs (23), and walks (80). The latter was chief among his improvements last season as he brought his walk rate all the way up to 12.2% (good for the 87th percentile). That’s not all, though. The righty’s average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and max exit velocity were all up to near-elite levels for the first time. And yeah, I know the career average (.265) is a little light, and that the xBA in 2023 was just .243, but it has actually improved every season he’s been the league. Still being south of 30 years old (Arozarena actually just turned 29 on Wednesday – happy birthday!), there is no reason to believe we won’t see a repeat performance in 2024.
Safest Players to Target in the 5th Round
Manny Machado 3B Padres ADP 57
2023: 138 G/75 R/30 HR/91 RBI/3 SB/.258 AVG
I’m not really sure why Manny Machado is being drafted this late. Maybe it’s because he’s played 12 seasons already and people think he’s too old? Or because his slash line was a little lower than we’re used to seeing (.258/.319/.462)? Or is slipping under 150 games played for the first time since he was a rookie what has folks spooked? Well, let me assure you that he’s still just 31 years old. And that he’s still providing plenty of run production (see above). And that his injury last year was a freak broken bone caused by a hit by pitch. The fact that it literally took just two weeks to heal just re-enforces the veteran’s constitution. Bottom line: he’s still the Manny Machado we know and love. And he’s the closest thing to a lock in this range of the draft.
Logan Webb SP Giants ADP 59
2023: 33 GS/216 IP/11-13 W-L/194 K/3.25/1.07 WHIP
The case for Logan Webb on this list is pretty simple. For three full seasons he’s demonstrated masterful control (a career 2.13 BB/9 and his 3.6% walk rate last season was ranked 4th overall), and an amazing ability to keep balls in play on the ground (his 62.7% ground ball rate ranked 99th percentile last year). In addition, the righty lead the league in innings pitched last season (and 3rd best in the last two combined). He’s still in his prime entering his 27-year-old season. And he’ll play half of his games in Oracle Park which is ranked 7th best for pitchers according to Park Factors. Fine, he won’t dazzle you with strikeouts. His 22.8% K rate ranks in the 44th percentile. But that’s why you’re getting him at the end of the 5th round and not at the beginning of the 3rd. Here, he’s a good and safe value pick.
Safest Players to Target in the 6th Round
Framber Valdez SP Astros ADP 63
2023: 31 GS/198 IP/12-11 W-L/200 K/3.45 ERA/1.13 WHIP
If I’m including Logan Webb on my safest players to target list, I should probably include Framber Valdez too. He uses the same sort of recipe. Good control: 2.59 BB/9 last season. Lots of ground balls: 55.2% of time (ranks 91st percentile). Great durability: barely missed a start since his freak fractured finger to start the 2021 season. In the lefty’s case, he’s also upped his strikeout game. Last season was his best K rate (24.8%) since the abbreviated 2020 season. It came at the expense of a slightly lower ground ball rate than usual, but the results ended the same. Sure, I know the xERA (4.33) might frighten you just a bit. But the 30-year-old has literally outperformed it every season since becoming a regular. He ought to be just fine.
Logan Gilbert SP Mariners ADP 71
2023: 32 GS/190.2 IP/13-7 W-L/189 K/3.73 ERA/1.08 WHIP
After three years in the league, Logan Gilbert has proved he does a few things very well. He’s got a diverse pitch mix (four solid options), a really good fastball (ranked 79th percentile in velocity in 2023), and pinpoint control (career 2.05 BB/9 rate). He’s utilized these tools very well, particularly in the last two seasons during which he’s compiled 26 wins, a 3.47 ERA, and a 1.13 WHIP. The righty has also proved he’s durable. Since joining the Mariners rotation in May of 2021, he’s yet to miss his turn in the rotation. This has resulted in back-to-back 32-start seasons and last year a career-high 190.2 innings. Finally, the 26-year-old plays half his games in Safeco Field. Park Factors ranks the stadium as the most favorable place to pitch in all of baseball. That mitigates Gilbert’s high exit velocity numbers nicely, and all together, makes him one of the safest players to target.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.