There are few things in my opinion, that are more fascinating in sports than studying pitchers. As many similarities as two pitchers could have, they are all unique in their own right. Between one’s arsenal and then overall execution of it, there are so many different layers to pitching that we have to unpack, which makes it a truly enticing art.
One fun aspect of being a pitcher is that you are generally in control of the game. After all, you know what pitch is coming, while the game works at your pace. There is a reason that the first aspect of a game that is focused on is who the starting pitchers are; the game still revolves around them.
This brings me to Sandy Alcantara. As a player who throws in the upper 90s, it has always been seen as a matter of time before he took the next step to becoming a bonafide ace who could miss bats at an extremely high level, a la Zack Wheeler. After a strong finish to the season, that transformation appeared to be happening, but now we are left with a lot of question marks over the beginning of this season.
So, should we still believe that Alcantara will make good as his illustrious ceiling? Or is he a pitcher that may not miss as many bats as you’d come to expect? Let us take a deep dive into one of the league’s most talented young pitchers!
Sandy Alcantara’s Trajectory To This Point
Since being signed in July 2013 at the age of 17 out of Dominican Republic, Alcantara has been lauded for one tool- his elite arm strength. However, it isn’t as though he was extremely hyped-up early on. For perspective, he received just a $125K bonus, and was not seen as a top-30 international prospect for either MLB Pipeline or Baseball America.
However, this just goes to show how unpredictable the international free agent market can be; there is so much development left for such young players, making the variance extremely high. In Alcantara’s case, he went from throwing in the lower 90s to the upper 90s by 2016 but was still only ranked as the Cardinals’ 19th-ranked prospect by MLB Pipeline in 2016.
In 2016, though, he flashed with a 28.7% strikeout rate between Single-A and High-A, while he also managed to pitch 122.2 innings. That was enough for him to move up as St.Louis’ 6th-ranked prospect by MLB Pipeline in 2017, where he eventually made his MLB debut at the end of the season despite being just 21-years-old.
Wait, but isn’t Alcantara on the Marlins? That brings us to the next step of the story of Sandy. Following the 2017 season, Alcantara was sent to Miami in a deal for outfielder Marcell Ozuna; as the team was in a midst of a teardown, he was seen as a key piece for them moving forward.
This was despite the fact that Alcantara still mustered just a 19.7% strikeout rate in Double-A during the 2017 season. Clearly, the talent was on display, but at some point, the results were going to have to follow suit. Meanwhile, in 2018, his strikeout rate (18.2%) was actually worse in Triple-A, making one question whether it was all going to come together for him as a starter, as MLB Pipeline highlighted in their profile of him prior to the 2019 season:
“Alcantara has three pitches that can grade as plus or better, starting with a fastball that sits at 94-96 mph and can reach triple digits with late movement. His mid-80s slider and upper-80s changeup also can generate swings and misses at their best but lack consistency. He also can mix in a fringy curveball to give hitters a different look.
An overpowering fastball alone won’t make Alcantara a successful starter in the Majors. To become one, he’ll have to refine his fastball command and improve the consistency of his secondary pitches. If he can’t, he has the tools to possibly become a closer.”
With how Alcantara was described, though, wouldn’t you expect there to be more strikeouts? After all, he pitched nearly 150 innings in 2018, and if he had a future relief role, you would expect him to have been more dominant on a per-inning basis with less overall volume. Really, he was quite a mysterious case study.
This leads us to 2019, where Alcantara started the year on the MLB level. He pitched 197.1 innings with a 3.88 ERA, which would appear to be quite valuable. Yet, he struck out just 18% of the batters he faced while walking 9.7% of them, making out for a subpar 8.4% K-BB ratio. His skill interactive ERA (SIERA) of 5.28 was actually the worst in the MLB amongst qualified starters, which is quite the red flag.
At the same time, Alcantara was only a 23-year-old rookie; there was plenty of room for him to take a step forward. Although it was just 42 innings, he did raise his strikeout rate up to 22.7% in shortened 2020 season, while his SIERA (4.39) was almost a run lower than the previous year. This certainly was a step in the right direction, and that helium took off in 2021.
In 205.2 innings pitched, Alcantara’s K-BB ratio of 18% and 3.68 SIERA were definitely career-best, while his 4.2 Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) had him tied for the 15th-most valuable pitcher in all of baseball.
If we had just witnessed Alcantara reach his peak, that would have been a tremendous outcome based on where he started. The Marlins, by signing him to a five-year extension, showed their faith in him, and the fantasy baseball community did as well; he was the 11th-highest drafted starting pitcher off the board in the NFBC Main Event. Clearly, the expectation was that he was going to continue to ascend, which all leads back to the end of last season.
Sandy Alcantara’s Arsenal + Late-Season Surge
Before we get to the pinnacle reason for Alcantara’s rise in valuation, let us start with what has made him so intriguing since the getgo- his arsenal.
Obviously, based on his scouting reports, it’s well aware that Alcantara is someone who brings the heat. His four-seam fastball is predicated much more on its horizontal movement (3.4 inches above average) compared to its vertical movement (1.9 inches below average), which doesn’t make it quite conducive for missing bats, even if its late movement makes it quite aesthetically pleasing:
Compared to his sinker, Alcantara’s four-seam fastball (23.3% whiff 2021) is the better whiff pitch. That being said, he’s been shifting towards the former since 2019, as it’s the ultimate ground-ball-inducing pitch (64.7% GB in 2021). When located down and in to righties, there are few pitches more fun to watch be put on display:
Sandy Alcántara, Sick 100mph Sinker. 🥴
100.2mph/18″ of run…on his 96th pitch.
12th K. pic.twitter.com/HIzzaEDjlY
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 9, 2021
On the surface, a worm-beating sinker to go along with the four-seam fastball would seem like a nice combination, especially when you’re sitting 97-98 MPH with those two pitches. That being said, it is also worth noting that with the four-seamer lacking horizontal movement and the sinker being, well, a sinker, neither pitch is ideal in terms of striking batters out. That’s where his two off-speed pitches come in.
I remain steadfast that Alcantara’s slider has the makings of one of the better pitches in all of baseball. Last season, the pitch thrived with a 38.3% whiff rate and 27.7% put-away rate, and it is easy to see why:
Any slider coming in over 90 MPH is going to be quite difficult to hit, and Alcantara’s slider isn’t the exception. It is the true top pitch of his arsenal, and pairs quite nicely with changeup:
Sandy Alcántara, Stupid 95mph Changeup. 🥴 pic.twitter.com/5n9wwHBZeC
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 22, 2021
Now, that is just unfair! With an arsenal like that, it’s astonishing that he doesn’t get more strikeouts, but it all seemed to be coming together at the end of the 2021 season. Over the final two months of the season, the 26-year-old posted a 28.4% strikeout rate, along with a 15.1% swinging-strike rate; those are much more like the numbers you would expect to see from him. What caused this massive spike? His pitch mix seemed to play a role in it:
There is a lot going on here, but focus on the slider usage. There is a direct correlation with him throwing his slider and the success ensuing. Now, correlation doesn’t always equal causation, but it was easy to buy into the narrative here. Assuming Alcantara would keep this strategy intact, he would seem to be bound to continue to miss more bats, allowing to evolve into the potential top-ten pitcher he clearly has the talent to become. So far, though, it’s looking like more of the same for the fireballing righty.
Sandy In 2022 = Strikeouts Still Not There
In a perfect world, Alcantara would take the next step in 2022. After all, it seemed like such an obvious end to this story. Talented pitcher who can reach triple-digits with his fastball develops into an above-average strikeout pitcher? Let’s just put it this way; that script likely does not end up in Hollywood.
Of course, baseball is complicated, so the story had to have a hiccup in the road. In four starts this season, Alcantara may have a 1.78 ERA, but that has come with just a 20.2% strikeout rate and 10.1% K-BB ratio, along with a 4.09 SIERA. That doesn’t quite speak to the 11th-highest drafted pitcher off the board and isn’t the start we were hoping to see from Alcantara.
Prior to 2021, one issue that plagued Alcantara when it comes to striking out batters was his heavy usage of his fastballs. As we went over, neither his four-seam fastball or sinker miss a lot of bats, so extensive usage of them isn’t going to give us the results we are hoping for. Well, so far, the pitch mix isn’t where you would hope it to be:
The fastball usage hasn’t reverted quite to pre-2021 standards, but over 55% is far too much in my eyes considering the prowess of his slider and changeup. You could argue that this is a small enough sample where matchups could play a role, but he’s been over the 55% mark in terms of his four starts this season. Thus, it isn’t as though an outlier start is skewing these numbers.
To be fair, Alcantara’s 23.7% expected strikeout rate is higher than his 20.2% strikeout rate. Yet, that just pretty much puts him at where he was last year. That’s not what we were looking for! Now, the question is if there is another level, or the ceiling is capped out.
To be fair to Alcantara, he’s faced three offenses (PHI, WSH, STL) in the bottom half of the league in strikeout rate, including two (WSH, STL) in the bottom 10. Meanwhile, he struggled with command mightily in his first starts, which throws off his numbers. In fact, if you take out the opening day start, his swinging-strike rate jumps up to 14.2%, which would indicate notable positive regression from his 20.5% strikeout rate in those three starts.
The main difference from last season thus far is that hitters aren’t chasing at pitches outside of the zone (27.2%) like they did last season (33.8%). However, this is also a case where there is a notable outlier (12% O-Swing) in terms of hitters not swinging outside of the zone. Thus, outside of the pitch usage, there really isn’t much different from last year.
The lack of moving factors is actually great news. Really, it is all tied to the pitch usage, which means that we are a slight tweak away from that upside potentially being unlocked. Regardless, he’s been successful missing bats against high-contact teams in spite of that, though he’ll see if that holds up if he doesn’t start throwing more sliders. Hopefully, that is something we don’t have to deal with.
Alcantara’s Future Outlook
So, what can we expect from Alcantara moving forward?
Right now, it is safe to say that his Opening Day start is a clear outlier that is conflating his overall numbers. With that out of the picture, he’s inducing as many chases as before and is missing bats, which would indicate that the strikeouts are going to take a major step forward.
However, the real answer to this question can be solved by Alcantara’s arsenal. Yes, he throws hard, but that doesn’t mean his fastball misses bats. His terrific slider and changeup, on the other hand, are much more successful in that regard, particularly the former. The path to success would appear to be right in front of him, but whether that comes to fruition is another question.
Right now, I’m not sure if Alcantara will live up to his draft position. That being said, do I believe he can still easily end up as a top-15/top-20 starting pitcher? I definitely do. There is still strikeout upside here that may be overlooked, and while the first start is conflating a lot of his numbers, you may want to pounce. You’re getting a lot of volume with strong ratios, which helps establish a nice foundation, with the strikeouts hopefully serving as the icing of the cake.
Hopefully, before long, ace-level Sandy will be in full steam ahead. For now, though, the mystery remains intact. What is the final step to this story? Now, we’ll just have to sit back, grab our popcorn, and see how it all plays out!