Hey folks, welcome back to Slappers and Bangers, where we look at fantasy hockey through a multi-cat lens; specifically for limited keeper and dynasty hockey leagues.
We’re doing something a little different this week, for the Holidays.
At the beginning of the season, we all scour player lists, looking for that next breakout player. Heck, we ran an entire 32-team series in August and September on just that, sleepers.
The Holiday wishlist for fantasy hockey is written early and often. We all wish to draft or claim that unheralded, unsuspecting breakout player.
This week, we’ll look at some of the biggest multi-cat surprise breakouts in fantasy hockey this season.
Fantasy Hockey Breakouts
Connor Ingram, G, Arizona Coyotes
There is little disputing that Ingram is now the number-one goalie in Arizona. Ingram has a 57-43% split in starts right now. That is after a 50-50 split to start the year. If it weren’t for load management, the split would be larger. Ingram has been significantly better.
Perhaps Cam Talbot has been a bigger surprise, but he has had good seasons previously. He’s excluded due to that.
Few expected Ingram, after 35 games, to be 12th in goals against average, 2.56, and tied for 8th in save percentage, .919. He is also tied for the league lead in shutouts.
His GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) sits fifth in the NHL. Igor Shesterkin, Ilya Samsonov, Connor Hellebyuck, and Juuse Saros all sit below him. It truly is a breakout year for Ingram.
Travis Sanheim, D, Philadelphia Flyers
His previous career high in points was 35. This came in 2018-19, his first full NHL season. For the next four years, Sanheim toiled away as a good real-life defenceman but with no fantasy hockey relevance, outside of the deepest of pools (16 teams or larger).
As it stands, Sanheim is on pace to not only break his career high but smash it. The 22 points in 31 games set him up for a 58-point season.
For a player most teams claimed as a free-agent in October this is a massive find. It is the first time he’s had real power-play time, averaging 2:26 per game. He has already tied his career high in power-play points with five and is well on his way to setting a new career high in shots.
Talk about a stocking stuffer.
Filip Hronek, D, Vancouver Canucks
He was second fiddle to Moritz Seider in Detroit. He is second fiddle to Quinn Hughes in Vancouver.
Yet, here he is, with 2 goals, and 27 assists for 29 points in 34 games. Folks, that’s barely under a 70-point pace (69.94 to be exact).
For a defenceman who has never hit 40 points in a season, this is a monster breakout. Anyone who acquired or hung on to Hronek after the trade to Vancouver is being rewarded handsomely. He is also seeing 2:07 on the powerplay. That is only 10 seconds below his career average. His nine powerplay points put him in a position to break his career high there as well.
He doesn’t hit or block, that’s a big knock. He is on pace for 60 hits and 88 blocks. He won’t help much in the peripheral department. If he can maintain this offensive pace though, do you care?
Frank Vatrano, LW/RW, Anaheim Ducks
I’ve written a fair amount about Vatrano to date, for good reason. Admittedly, he hasn’t scored a point in the last eight games. It does underscore how good the first third of his season has been.
Here are the current 82-game projections for Vatrano amidst this frigid pointless streak
Goals: 36, Assists: 23, Points: 59, Shots: 276, Penalty Minutes: 105: Hits: 133, Blocks 85, Power Play Points: 20
Other than Evander Kane holding a two-to-one advantage in hits, Vatrano’s numbers across the board are better.
Trading for Kane would come with a price. Vatrano came with a free-agent claim in most pools or a mid-round draft pick in deeper pools. That is massive value, for free.
Michael Carcone, LW, Arizona Coyotes
Hardcore hockey fans knew of Carcone before his call-up. He dominated the AHL in 2022-23 with 31 goals and 54 assists, for 85 points in 65 games. He added a hefty 127 penalty minutes as well.
The Coyotes are a surprisingly deep team, which limits Carcone’s opportunity. You can’t expect much averaging 10:53 a game. Fourth-line minutes be damned, Carcone has 14 goals on 45 shots, in 31 games. This is a pretty good bang for the Coyotes’ buck.
No, that 31.1% shooting percentage is not sustainable. At best it is double what it should be, regression is coming. It is a fun, feel-good story though. Don’t get me wrong, Carcone has offensive ability. He can sustain an offensive presence in the NHL, with the right opportunity. So far that hasn’t come. His 14 goals project to 37 over 82 games. He won’t get there. I don’t expect him to reach 30 with his limited ice time.
His penalty minutes, so far, have not translated to the NHL, with 10 minutes to date. I’d like to see him get a boost to 14 minutes a game. That would give us a good indication of what Carcone can do at the NHL level.
Brock Boeser, RW, Vancouver Canucks
This is the Brock Boeser fans thought they were getting in 2017-18. His rookie remains his career-high in goals (29) and points (55 – tied in 2022-23) in a season.
Even if his shooting percentage plummets, which it will, Boeser will finally score 30 goals in a season, and easily. He is on pace to shatter his career high in points. His 38 in 34 games is projected to be 91 over 82 games.
Playing 82 games itself would be a career-high. Boeser has dealt with injuries that limited his games played in most seasons.
His shooting percentage, 24.7%, is not sustainable. His career average is 13.7%. Boeser stands a good chance of reaching 40 goals, even in the face of returning to his career average shooting percentage. Expect both his goal and point pace to slow in the second half.
Regardless, I don’t know anyone who wouldn’t be happy with a 35-goal, 80-point season from Boeser at the beginning of the year. To have expected this kind of season from Boeser would make you a real Vancouver Canucks homer fan. No one saw this kind of fantasy hockey breakout coming.
That’ll do it for this week.
Next week, we’ll flip the script and take a look at the biggest disappointments of the 2023 portion of the 2023-24 season. There are some real doozie names on this list.
Thanks for reading.
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