It is time to make resolutions for the new year. Time to throw away bad habits and start new, good habits.
And time for those superstars we pinned our fantasy hockey championship hopes and dreams on, to wake up and save our season.
What follows is a list of the superstars, who, for one reason or another, have not produced to the level expected or wanted this year. There is. no shortage of stardom. I’ve included their AAV in this article because the implications of these players’ slump in salary cap pools is even bigger.
Fantasy Hockey Slumps and Disappointments
Alexander Ovechkin, LW, Washington Capitals – $9.5M
After 32 games in a bad year, Ovechkin would normally have close to 15 goals. In a bad year. This year, he has six.
Snake-bitten is what he is. His 4.9% shooting percentage is miles too low. Even if Ovechkin is in the throes of regression his shooting percentage wouldn’t disappear overnight.
His five-on-five shooting percentage is half of his career average, but his Individual Point Percentage is within 10% of his year-over-year norm. This is a combination of an Ovechkin slump and a team that just isn’t scoring like it is used to.
We’re at the point where we shouldn’t expect monster goal seasons from Ovechkin. Expect Ovechkin to turn it around and give owners a big second half. It needs to happen quickly though, hitting 40 is slipping from his grasp.
Patrick Laine, C, RW, Columbus Blue Jackets – $8.7M
Nothing has gone right this year. He has missed 18 games, mostly due to injury. In the 18 games he has played his play has been underwhelming. There’s no better demonstration of this than being healthy scratched on November 19th.
It takes a lot to scratch a player making 8.7 million dollars.
His .5 points per game is the worst points-per-game ratio of his career since 2020-21 when he was traded to Columbus for Pierre-Luc Dubois.
Unlike Ovechkin, his shooting percentage and five-on-five shooting percentage are relatively normal. Laine has always felt like a bit of an enigma as a fantasy hockey player.
The talent is too good not to return to career norms. With the injuries though, I doubt it happens in 2023-24. Laine’s injuries and inconsistencies make him a prime buy-low candidate for 2024-25 – that is if your championship dreams this year are over.
Johnny Gaudreau, LW, Columbus Blue Jackets – $9.75M
Back-to-back Blue Jackets on this list illustrate the type of year it has been in Columbus. With seven points in the last six games, things may already be turning the corner.
The 22 points in 36 games. to date is a far cry from what anyone expected Gaudreau to produce while making 9.75 million this year. His 75 points last year was a disappointment to many. Although, it shouldn’t have been unexpected. The Blue Jackets didn’t provide near the caliber of supporting cast Gaudreau left in Calgary.
If you are looking for a safer buy-low player, Gaudreau is it. The Blue Jackets are a team on the cusp of turning the corner towards competing. Gaudreau will be at the head of the offensive charge. While it may be another year or two of production in the mid-70s range, he will produce over a point per game again. He just isn’t the type of player that can do it all himself.
Pierre-Luc Dubois, C, Los Angeles Kings – $8.5M
Well, the initial adjustment to Los Angeles has not gone as planned. We often forget or at least, lose sight of the human factor with players. Los Angeles is an entirely different city to live and work in, than Winnipeg or Columbus.
We shouldn’t be surprised Dubois’ transition to the Kings hasn’t gone exactly as planned. Should fantasy hockey owners be worried? This year, probably. Long-term, no.
Dubois doesn’t have the 90-point expectation that Gaudreau has. A ten-game hot streak would do wonders for his season pace.
He is averaging a shot per game less. His ice time is also down three minutes a game from last year. The ice time is due in part to his play, but also due to the strong play of the Trevor Moore, and Phillip Danault line.
For Dubois to get back on track, he needs to become more involved in the power-play. He only has two power-play points on the year. The Kings have ten power-play goals with him on the ice. I’m not so sure things turn around the way owners want them to for Dubois this year. That frustration makes him a strong buy-low candidate.
Brandon Montour, D, Florida Panthers – $3.5M
Montour is a hard one to figure out. Was last year a mirage or is this year’s slow start a hangover from the shoulder surgery he had this summer?
His 73 points was the only season he averaged over .5 points per game during his seven-year career. He has yet to look nearly as dynamic this year. His six points in 18 games likely have more to do with his shoulder than strict performance.
Still, expecting a repeat of 2022-23 might have been too high. This might be a case of a player returning too soon from injury and needing more time to become healthy. His production should improve month over month but I’m not expecting him to regain last year’s form by season’s end.
2024-25 could be a different story though.
Brent Burns, D, Carolina Hurricanes – $8M
The inevitable decline is upon us. So far, it is happening gradually.
His ice time is down two minutes per game from last year and almost five from the year before. He is also seeing a 12% reduction in time on the power play compared to last year. It could partly be load management, but it could also be, he’s 38.
It tells you how good Burns has been, with 19 points in 36 games, he is on pace for 43. One hot streak and he hits 50 again. Owners will be looking to sell him and get what they can while he holds any value.
I expect an uptick in production through the rest of the year but his elite days are numbered, if not already behind him.
I own Joe Pavelski in one pool, so I am quickly reminded we shouldn’t rule out one last hurrah. Elite players defy the odds often. Every bell curve has its outlier.
I’m looking to buy Burns if the price is right (cheap) and I’m chasing down a title.
Ilya Samsonov, G, Toronto Maple Leafs – $3.5M
Yikes. What an awful year for Samsonov. To suggest he is a buy-low target is a hard one for most of you to swallow. He doesn’t have an established track record to suggest he’s worth the investment in time or pain and suffering.
Goalies are voodoo. As soon as you trade him he will flip the switch. In any start two-goalie league, I run four goalies, largely due to their unpredictability. All it takes is one shot hitting a goal post or one sequence of saves for the mindset to shift.
For Maple Leafs fans, Joseph Woll can’t return fast enough.
That will do it for this week.
Thanks for reading.
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