In a multi-cat pool that tracks shots, hits, and blocks, the one thing I try desperately to avoid is owning a defenseman who doesn’t shoot. I can’t say I relax this expectation, maybe obsession is a better word, whether the league counts penalty minutes or not.
I explained a lot of this when I covered defensemen here. I don’t really want to rehash everything from that article either. So let’s not. Let’s take a step forward.
Dynasty and keeper leagues, to a lesser degree, are always looking for ‘the next one.’ This is a slippery slope. You can fall into a trap where you seek out the next one to the detriment of competing. I like winning too much ever to enter a full rebuild. I’ll tinker, with the expectation I am competing the following year, maybe two years, tops.
Finding the Next Multi-cat Defenseman
We all know who the next Connor McDavid is supposed to be years before they get drafted. There’s no secret or strategy to that. Where the real fun is though, is in uncovering the next MacKenzie Weegar.
You know, the defenseman that seemingly comes out of nowhere only to put up a stat line comparable to Darnell Nurse. I can’t tell you how much time I have spent over the years scouring for this type of player.
There is less of a formula for identifying this type of player. Sticking with Weegar as the example, he was drafted in 2013, spent another year in the QMJHL, and then three seasons in the AHL before breaking, slowly into the NHL.
I first picked him up off waivers in his rookie year to boost my team’s hits and blocks. The next year, I reclaimed him, again off waivers for the same reason. What stuck out to me was the improvement in every statistic per game. His points per game jumped from .23 to .40; his shots per game moved from 1.2 to 1.7; and his time on ice improved by four minutes per game. While maintaining his hits or blocks rates.
So, who might be the next one sitting on the wire/as a free agent in your pool?
Matt Roy, Los Angeles Kings – Rostered 21%, Starting 14% of Fantrax Leagues
I covered him in the multi-cat article linked above, so I apologize if you’re disappointed with the regurgitated name. He’s only rostered on 21% of Fantrax leagues, which is why I’ve included him.
He ticks all the boxes. At 21:10 TOI, he’s a rock-solid second-pair defenceman. His shots and hits per game are both at 1.8, which translates to 147 for the year. His blocks are better, at 2.5, or 205 (82-game pace) Those will come down. That’s a hard pace to maintain.
2022-23 strikes me as odd. In a year he should have taken a big step forward, he took a step back. His points per game stalled at .33, his TOI dropped 2:12 and his shots per game dropped from 2.3 to 1.6. Not what you expect from a 27-year-old defenceman.
He appears to be back on track, even taking a step forward this year. With Sean Walker and Sean Durzi traded over the summer, Roy is also picking up :44 per game of power play time.
This isn’t a player you own for power-play points though. Those are just icing on the cake. All things considered, he looks ripe to push that .33 point per game career high and become that deep sleeper to fill out the bottom of your defense core.
Martin Fehérváry, Washington Capitals – Rostered 25%, Starting 15% of Fantrax Leagues
Entering his third full NHL season, Fehérváry has already established himself as a peripheral stud, with two straight seasons of over 200 hits. His blocks improved last year from 1.5 to 1.91 per game. We also saw an incremental boost in production, from .22 to .24 points per game.
Agreed, it’s barely worth mentioning, if at all.
So why Fehérváry? His shots per game also saw improvement from 1.2 to 1.4 per game. For me, it’s the consistent improvement year over year. They don’t have to be leaps and bounds better than the previous year, I just want to see progression.
I don’t expect Fehérváry to ever produce 40 points. Thirty would likely be a career-high. But it is really rare to find a defenceman who gives 200 hits, 150 blocks, and over 120 shots on goal. With hit totals like that, you usually end up with shot totals comparable to Brayden McNabb or Andrew Peeke (1.2 per game).
Timothy Liljegren, Toronto Maple Leafs – Rostered 22%, Starting 15% of Fantrax Leagues
So… what I said about consistent improvement, is not always the case. In his second NHL season, Liljegren’s shots per game remained at 1.3 per game and his points per game dropped from .38 to .27. It’s important to recognize that Rasmus Sandin was given a lot of the power play ice time when Morgan Rielly wasn’t on the ice.
Where we’re seeing increases this year is with ice time, 17:55 to 19:37, and percentage of power play time, 10.4% to 23.1%. While his hits and blocks were below the coveted two per game last year (1.6 hits, 1.4 blocks), they were improvements over the previous season.
There is an untapped offensive upside with Liljegren. Remember, in his draft year he was ranked as a potential top-five pick before he slid to Toronto at 17. Until age 16, he had played forward before being converted to defense. Gone is the expectation he’ll become a high-end offensive defenceman. Remaining though, is the potential to reach the 40-point, 150-shot, hit, block marker I covet.
Alexander Romanov, New York Islanders – Rostered 26%, Starting 18% of Fantrax Leagues
This name isn’t a huge surprise. The hits and blocks, like Fehérváry, are immense and make him immediately valuable in multi-cat leagues.
The offense hasn’t come as quickly as some expected. Last year we did see a solid improvement in production, from 13 points in 2021-22 to 22 points (.16 to .29). One area that I’d like to see him take a step forward is his shooting, 1.4 and 1.3 per game in his first two seasons.
There feels like a glass ceiling on everyone in an Islanders uniform these days. They roll out the same aging roster year in and year out and continue to struggle with offense. Romanov appears a bit of a slower burn. If you can exercise patience through his growing pains this year and next, he could pay dividends.
Kaiden Guhle, Montreal Canadiens – Rostered 48%, Started 14% of Fantrax Leagues
Rostered in 48% of Fantrax leagues, he is less of an under-the-radar inclusion. Guhle was drafted for his defensive, physical play. The hits and blocks (almost two per game last season) were more or less expected.
Playing at just under a point per game for his last two years in the WHL, there is some real offense in his game as well. He wasn’t hallmarked as a future offensive force in the NHL. Yet, he stepped straight into the NHL with 18 points in his first 44 games, a 34-point pace.
With any young defenceman, expect growing pains. When all is said and done, we could be looking at the second coming of Shea Weber. Excluding the bomb of the shot. Points, peripherals though, Guhle looks like he can bring it all.
That’ll do it for this week. Thanks for reading.
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