Start/Sit Fantasy Baseball Hitting Decisions for Week 6

Week 5 is in the record books and Week 6 is on the horizon. We have 11 teams with five games on the schedule, seven teams with seven games on their slates and 12 teams perfectly placed in the middle with six games to play. With the disparity in games to be played we have some players that typically would be starters that may be sitters due to a lack of upcoming at-bats and some borderline players that could slip their way into starting lineups. We have some Stars that are on the Hot Seat due to particularly poor play and we have a few players with particularly difficult matchups. These areas are where I focus my attention for my Start/Sit Fantasy Baseball hitting decisions for Week 6.      

Start/Sit Stars on The Hot Seat

Kris Bryant and Jose Ramirez are my two toughest Start/Sit Fantasy baseball hitting decisions of the week. They both have “Must-Start” reputations while being in the midst of “Must-Sit”  2019 seasons. Start/Sit Fantasy baseball hitting decisions are never easy and with a limited sample to consider, it isn’t making things easier.

I need to reiterate something because I am typically an extremely reserved, measured analyst. There is NEVER just one specific factor or statistical point in head-to-head leagues when making a Start/Sit decision. Every difficult decision has nuance and multiple factors to analyze before coming to a conclusion. Owners need to consider everything and apply it all on a case-by-case basis. That’s what I did in Week 5 and that’s what I am doing again in my Start/Sit Fantasy Baseball Hitting decisions for Week 6.

I look at seven, 14-day, 21-day and season-long statistics as well as career performance. I want to know if the data is consistent or are there conflicts? I look at the matchups and apply them to recent and past performance in those situations. Does a player struggle or dominate left-handed/right-handed pitching or on the road/at home? How many games does a player have and how good has he been lately? If a player is struggling AND he only has five games while an alternative has been better with more games scheduled, that has to be considered.

Let’s look at a few “Must Start” players compared to a few NoteWorthy alternatives to see if you, the reader, can look at them and their 2019 seasons and honestly say, without any reservation, that the “Must Start” player is, in fact, a MUST START player in Week 6.

The Case and The Circumstances For and Against Kris Bryant

Kris Bryant, 3B Chicago Cubs

Renato Nunez, 3B Baltimore Orioles

Yandy Diaz, 3B Tampa Bay Rays

Tommy La Stella, 3B Atlanta Braves

When looking at these names the initial reaction is, “Start Kris Bryant. Shut up. Shut Up. SHUT UP. Start Kris Bryant.” Understandable. But why so adamant and how are you so sure? His MVP 2018 season? His lightning-fast start to 2019?

Bryant had three really good seasons in 2015-2017. He hit 26,39 and 29 home runs and has a career .283 batting average.  That’s why the initial reaction and where he earned his Must-Start reputation. He had 389 at-bats in 2019, finishing a limited season with 13 home runs and a .272 batting average. He looks worse now. There has been speculation that he is still hurt and even that it may be chronic. Whatever the case may be, 2018 was a poor year and 2019 is looking like a potential disaster.

85 at-bats is absolutely NOT a definitive sample size and Bryant has earned the benefit of the doubt, but, let’s look deeper.

In Bryant’s defense, his BABIP (Batted Balls In Play) is .290, the lowest of his career. But, a lot of his other peripheral stats are the worst of his career as well and if you aren’t making hard contact, your BABIP is likely to reflect that as well. BABIP isn‘t purely a reflection of luck. We think of it that way, but it isn’t THAT simple. He is batting .235 and slugging .400 with an ISO of .165, a wOBA of .341 and a wRC+ of 111. All career lows and significantly so.

Is this a small sample fluke/outlier or is there something here? I think there is something here. If the sample was twice this size with these peripheral numbers I would consider selling Bryant on the trade market and he wouldn’t be anywhere near my starting lineup. I am NOT suggesting owners sell anybody low this early in the season. But, for Week #6, how can owners ignore the season-long stats supported by peripheral numbers that indicate that something smells in Denmark….or Wrigley rather.

The Case For Kris Bryant

The strength of Bryant’s case is the alternatives I have listed. None of these players have a track record to point to. Bryant had three really good years, including an MVP. Combine all of the alternatives in my table and there isn’t one with a season to fall in love with. Nobody would criticize an owner for sitting them and starting Bryant. He is an easy fall back.

In rotisserie, owners should sit and wait for the turn around that we all think is coming. One week or even two weeks don’t matter much over the length and breadth of a 162 game season. But, in head-to-head leagues, when every week is a win or a loss, a week matters more. Owners don’t have the luxury of patience when making difficult Start/Sit Fantasy Baseball hitting decisions in weekly head-to-head leagues like they do in rotisserie.

In deeper leagues, especially those with CI spots, Bryant probably has to start purely because of a lack of viable alternatives. Bryant isn’t a Must-Sit at this stage. It is definitely too early to categorize him as that. His potential justifies some patience when the alternatives are poor. But, he isn’t providing much and it deserves a close look.

The Case Against Kris Bryant

Imagine this scenario if you can’t stomach starting one of the lesser names I have in the table above. What if you have a player like Wil Myers who qualifies at both OF and 3B or a hot hitting Yoan Moncada who qualifies at 2B and 3B. Maybe you have a one-dimensional outfielder or second baseman who steals bases or scores a lot of runs or hits for a high batting average, like Mallex Smith or a good all-around lesser name like Jonathan Villar. Are you telling me that your team isn’t better off in Week #6 with Wil Myers at third base, or Jonathan Villar at second base, Yoan Moncada at third and Mallex Smith in your outfield?

Potential Alternative Start/Sit Hitting Decisions to Kris Bryant

Let’s look at the third base alternatives to Kris Bryant. When making Start/Sit Fantasy baseball hitting decisions I need to feel confident in my choices and I’ll be honest, I don’t with these lesser names and that’s the dilemma owners face when Stars are on the Hot Seat. We need to find a way to feel the necessary level of comfort or we have to stick with the safety blanket. That’s part of my job in this column. Create that comfort or advise you to stay the course.

Tommy La Stella, 3B Los Angeles Angels

I feel the same about Tommy La Stella as you do. But, he has three home runs in his last seven days and a .290 batting average in his last 31 at-bats. He only has five games this week, all at home, and one will be against Justin Verlander. That’s not confidence inspiring.

He’s owned in 8% of Yahoo leagues, but I think he should stay there for now. I am not buying into the sample going forward and the Week 6 matchups and schedule don’t inspire confidence. He is a good example of a small, recent sample probably being deceptive rather than suggestive of future performance. “Don’t Be Fantasy Fooled.”

Yandy Diaz, 3B Tampa Bay Rays

He has received some buzz this year. He is 5/17 with two home runs in the last week and 11/36 in the last 14 days with four home runs this season. He’s been good. He has 8-12 more at-bats with two additional games than Bryant in Week #6. Less important, but more comforting for achieving that necessary level, he has power potential and upside owners can cling too.

He has seven road games and three will be in hitter-friendly Baltimore against one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball.

For owners with the courage to Sit Bryant, Diaz has the upside, the schedule, and the matchups to take a risk on. He profiles similarly to Bryant without the ugly early season struggles and 2018 baggage.

Renato Nunez, 3B Baltimore Orioles

Nunez is interesting. Only one additional game compared to Bryant, but he is hitting .289 with six home runs this season. What’s interesting but also a little less appealing is that four of his six home runs and a .321 batting average has been in the last seven days. It could just be a great week. He has hit .315 over the last 14-days, so that’s encouraging. It suggests some level of consistency, but it’s also a tiny sample.

What also hurts his case is he faces the vaunted Rays pitching staff, including both Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell. I like Nunez the best of this alternative bunch going forward with some excitement about Diaz, but I like Nunez’s matchups the least.

I have been starting him in leagues for a couple of weeks and if your alternatives allow it I suggest you own him, but I am hesitant to sit Bryant for him. It’s a justifiable case, but I lean Bryant for now.  

Hunter Dozier, 3B Kansas City Royals

Seven games, four at home against Tampa Bay, with Snell and a TBA on the schedule. I like the games played, I don’t like the parks he will be playing in or the Rays pitching staff for a matchup. He will also face a Detroit pitching staff that has been better than expected, especially Matthew Boyd.

I can’t start Dozier over Bryant, but he is an unowned “scrub” that has done enough to be considered part of the broader Start/Sit Fantasy baseball hitting decision discussion for Week 6.

Dozier batted 6/11 in the last seven days, 15/35 over the last 14-days with four home runs and he is batting .320 for the year. He has made consistent contact from day one and the numbers confirm it. Add two extra games and 8-12 potential additional at-bats and as blasphemous as it may sound, he could outperform Bryant this week. Five game weeks are a significant disadvantage and when a star player is struggling, it makes the inconceivable plausible and thats Starting Dozier over Bryant. Once again, I find it difficult to feel the confidence I want to Start Dozier, Hunter Dozier not Brian Dozier, over Kris Bryant. The numbers say Dozier and my statistical mind say start Dozier, but I am not there yet. I can’t get there.

Stars on The Hot Seat: The Jose Ramirez Dilemma

Jose Ramirez, 2B/3B Cleveland Indians

2019 Stats:

Two HRs – Eight SBs – Nine RBIs – 13 Runs Scored – .173 Batting Average

A consensus top five pick batting .173 has to be the biggest disappointments of 2019 and one of the most frustrating things for owners to be forced to witness. Last week I suggested owners come back to this column and instead of a Start recommendation like last week, I may not be so kind. I am less happy about Ramirez now than I was then, but I am still starting him…for now.

The reason? Eight stolen bases. Stolen bases are why I am more willing to bench Kris Bryant and why I was more willing to Sit Carlos Correa and Anthony Rizzo last week. Start/Sit Fantasy baseball decisions have to consider everything and often times it’s one specific factor that tips the scales one way or the other and stolen bases is often that thing.

As long as a player is contributing something I am willing to remain patient longer and stolen bases are often that thing. Batting average can be too, but it’s rarer in today’s game.

Ramirez is a better player than Bryant, Correa, and Rizzo as well, but it’s his floor that saves him with me.  I don’t like that he only has five games, but I do like that he doesn’t face an ace or anything resembling one. Only five games makes me want to bench him. It’s one of the more relevant tiebreakers. But, special players receive special treatment and in this case, that means more patience than I feel good about providing. I am starting him another week, but his seat is roasting and the clock is ticking.  

Five Game Schedules and Start/Sit Fantasy Baseball Hitting Decisions for Week 6

Chicago Cubs

Week 6 Matchups:

Two Games @Seattle: Felix Hernandez/Marco Gonzales

Three Games vs. St. Louis Cardinals: J Flaherty/D Ponce De Leon/Adam Wainwright

Anthony Rizzo

He should be a sit, but he has two home runs this week, making a case for a start. Hardly a ringing endorsement and he still isn’t making enough contact. I am sitting him in shallower leagues in a five game week. I didn’t like him last week and I don’t this one, even though the matchups are good.

Kris Bryant, 3B/OF

I am extremely reluctant to endorse a Start, but he isn’t a Sit either. I hate riding the fence, but if that’s where he sits then that’s where I have to be. I want to bench him and in my shallower Dynasty league, I am planning to start Wil Myers at 3B and Victor Robles in the OF with Bryant on my bench. If I feel OK doing that then I think other owners should be willing to sit him as well. It’s a close call.

Texas Rangers

Two Games vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Jordan Lyles/Jameson Taillon

Three Games vs. Tor: Trent Thornton/TBA/Clay Buchholz

Rougned Odor, 2B

Odor is switch-hitter who has power and speed. I love players with both of those. He also strikes out a TON and can kill a batting average, especially in a weekly format. The fact that he just returned from injury and has only five games on the schedule gives me more reason to watch and see before I jump in and Start the intriguing, but volatile slugger/speedster. The Pirates pitching staff adds to my confidence that he is a Sit and not a Start as well.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Two Games vs NYY:  CC Sabathia/Masahiro Tanaka

Three Games @Colorado:  Tyler Anderson/Chad Bettis/German Marquez

Christian Walker, 1B

2019 Stats:

7 HRs – 3 SB – .326 – 1.051 OPS – 15 RBI – 15 Runs scored

I don’t like starting players with five game slates but Walker is having a good season, he is batting .360 over the last week and the matchups are fairly good this week. Three at Coors makes the mouth water and a few lefties on the bump don’t hurt. If you have a Ci spot and Bryant is a concern, like I outlined above, Walker is a Start/Sit Fantasy baseball Hitting decision alternative for Week #6 worth considering. He is a lesser name having a much better season than a bigger name like Rizzo or Bryant.

New York Yankees

Two Games @Ari: Merrill Kelly/Zack Greinke

Three Games vs Minn: Kyle Gibson/Jake Odorizzi/Michael Pineda

Luke Voit, 1B

Voit has four home runs in his last 7 days, a 1.226 OPS and a .375 batting average. He isn’t a huge name, but people in Fantasy circles are well aware and he is legit. Five games isn’t ideal, but Greinke is the only starter that might scare you and he isn’t the Cy Young Greinke we once knew. He is another corner bat consideration if you are looking for justification to sit the two Cubs I keep wanting to bench.

Gleyber Torres

2019 Stats:

4 HR – 3 SB – .255 BA – 14 Runs scored

.241 last 7 days – 0 HRs – .509 OPS – 8 Ks

He is a middle infielder, good. He has five games and a less than ideal streak over his last seven games. The Yankees lineup is hurting and that matters a bit too. I lean Sit, but your Start/Sit Fantasy baseball hitting decision for Week 6 has to be made based on the strength of your alternatives. The performance and the matchups cancel each other off and he has no career to speak of to lean on for guidance.

Philadelphia Phillies

Two Games vs Detroit: Shane Turnbull/Tyler Ross

Three Games vs Washington Nationals: Jeremy Hellickson/Patrick Corbin/Anibal Sanchez

Maikel Franco, 3B

2018 Stats:

18 HRs – .286 BA – .826 OPS

2019 Stats:

7 HRs – .271 BA – 15 Runs Scored – 22 RBIs

6 HRs vs righties this season – .978 OPS – .292 BA

Franco has been under the radar and wasn’t given much respect in draft season but he is slugging. The Phillies are powerful and he is benefitting.  He has been significantly better than both Rizzo and Bryant.

He hits right-handers well and he has more than his share this week. Five games hurts, but his performance and matchups help.

Seattle Mariners

Two Games vs Cubs: Hamels/Lester

Three Games vs Cle: Shane Bieber/Carlos Carrasco/Trevor Bauer

The Mariners have a lot of popular early-season waiver wire additions on their roster and that can often lead to a feeling of loyalty or obligation from Fantasy owners. It shouldn’t.

The five-game slate, the matchups for their Fantasy viable options and their recent performance is discouraging. Here are the relevant facts about a few of their relevant Start/Sit Fantasy baseball hitting decisions for Week 6

Jay Bruce

.226 Batting average vs lefties

Vogelbach

.158 Batting average in his last 7 days – 5Ks – 1 HR

Edwin Encarnacion

2 HR – .200 Batting average in his last 7 days

Tim Beckham

1 HR – .300 Batting average – 10Ks in his last 7 days

Dee Gordon

1 HR – 1 BB – 0 SB – .304 Batting average in his  last 7 days

You can follow me on Twitter @CJMitch73 or on Facebook in the Fantasy Sports group “A Podcast To Be Named Later” and we will have a Podcast coming in the not-too-distant future, so keep an eye-out.

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