A significant amount of my weekly Start/Sit hitting decisions column has been to focus on the scheduling disparity. Primarily, teams with five games versus seven games and the Fantasy impact of such a significant disparity, This week, we don’t have any teams with five-game schedules on the slate. What we do have is an odd number of teams with long home stands or extended road trips. Everywhere I look teams have either all home or all road games on their Week 7 slates. It’s like they decided, well in advance that, like Boeing’s 737, they were going to be grounded in one place this week. So, I decided to focus my Start/Sit hitting decisions on other factors, like home/road and left/right splits. The examples of borderline or typically non-viable players weren’t large, but there were plenty of players who are impacted by their splits this week. It also provides some good insights for Daily Fantasy players looking for an edge and who to target in the upcoming week.
Hot and Cold: 14-Day Samples
The first thing I look at each week is who has been hot and who has been cold. Small samples aren’t typically definitive by themselves, but a good or bad stretch is something Fantasy owners can exploit when making Start/Sit hitting decisions. Riding a hot bat rather than sticking with a relatively pedestrian, back of the roster option, is a good way to pick up a few points in rotisserie leagues or sneak some additional runs batted in or runs scored in head-to-head leagues. Seven-day samples can be swayed too heavily by one or two games, so I look at 14 days and sometimes 21 to get a truer sense of whether a player is swinging a hot bat or struggling with a cold one.
Cold Bats
Ronald Acuna Jr., OF Atlanta Braves
52 At-Bats – 0 HRs – 6 RBis – 4 Runs Scored – .212 Batting Average
I thought Acuna was a draft-day value (#9 Average Draft Position in Fantrax leagues) because of his dual-category potential. He hasn’t been bad this season, but like a lot of baseballs biggest stars in 2019, he isn’t meeting our lofty expectations either.
Acuna has been fine. His trade or Start/Sit hitting decision status hasn’t changed, but his last 14-days haven’t been glowing. The best analysis, he is due for a hot streak. He has two home runs, a .298 batting average and .852 OPS on the road this season. He’ll get seven road outings this week. A good split for his owners.
Jose Altuve, 2B Houston Astros
45 ABs – 1 HR – 4 RBIs – 2 Runs – .133 BA
Outside of a five-game stretch, April 8-April 13, when Altuve hit six of his nine home runs, he has been relatively punchless and he isn’t stealing bases. He has had leg issues in recent seasons and maybe it’s taking its toll.
What we know is that batting average and stolen bases are the backbone to being a Top-10 pick for Altuve and he isn’t doing either in 2019. If you subtract his one week April excursion of excellence, Altuve hasn’t been even a Top 100 player in 2019. Something NoteWorthy to keep an eye on. He isn’t on the Hot Seat yet, but maybe he should be. Three home runs and one stolen base outside of a hot six-game run? The more data I scan the more concerned I become. The sample is too small to go there yet, but two or three more weeks of mediocre sample and we could be. Jose Ramirez is saving his season on the bases. Altuve has been the opposite.
Hot Hitters
Eduardo Escobar, 3B/SS Arizona Diamondbacks
46 ABs – 5 HRs – 11 RBIs – 11 Runs – .435 BA
64% owned in Yahoo Leagues – 94% Fantrax.com
84% Active in Fantrax Leagues
Escobar gets no respect, proven by the fact that he has been benched in 16% of Fantrax leagues. The Diamondbacks don’t receive the kind of attention that other teams do and their players are more likely to be underappreciated or ignored as a result.
He is rolling and doing it across the important Fantasy categories, minus stolen bases of course. I’m not sure what Yahoo league owners are doing. 64% ownership compared to over 90% in Fantrax leagues is an oddity I can’t quite explain.
Luke Voit, 1B New York Yankees
49 ABs – 5 HRs – 12 RBIs – 13 Runs – .347 BA
Voit is underappreciated but he isn’t an unknown. This is a Hot/Cold segment and Voit is hot, so for those unaware, he is going good. It doesn’t matter who is out or who returns in the Bronx. Voit is a must-start and won’t lose any at-bats when the Yankees get healthy. Adapt your Yankee Start/Sit hitting decisions around the fact that Voit will bat in the middle of that lineup every day going forward. First base has become a thin position and Voit is quietly becoming one of the better ones.
Anthony Rizzo, 1B Chicago Cubs
42 ABs – 5 HRs – 12 RBIs – 9 Runs – .381
Rizzo was cold and I was freezing him out for a time. The thaw has come. He is burning hot and back to being the top 10 first baseman we drafted him to be.
Ketel Marte, 2B/SS/OF Arizona Diamondbacks
43 ABs – 5 HRs – 1 SB – 11 RBIs – 11 Runs – .326
I’ll discuss Marte more later. He is feeling his stroke while being active in only 83% of Fantrax.com leagues.
Michael Chavis, 2B/1B/3B Boston Red Sox
47 ABs – 6 HRs – 2 SBs – 13 RBIs – 12 Runs – .340 BA
I have not been impressed with the Red Sox minor league system in recent years and Chavis’ PED suspension in 2018 made me less of a buyer and more of a doubter. Right now, I look wrong.
He is hitting for power, batting average and he is even stealing bases. The fact that he qualifies at second base, as well as 3B, only enhances the love owners should have for Chavis. With Eduardo Nunez back and Dustin Pedroia possibly returning soon it could get dicey, but he isn’t a fluke and the Red Sox improved play isn’t a coincidence. He is owned in 67% of Fantrax leagues and active in only 51%. That has to change with a seven-game slate in Week 7. I think he stays in Boston for the duration or at least until he cools off and that isn’t right now.
Start/Sit Hitting Decisions: Home/Road Splits
The oddity of the MLB schedule this week is all the home and road series. A majority of the league’s teams are playing all of their games either at home or on the road. Very few are splitting their slate between the two. A lot of players, especially Colorado Rockies, play better at home and in some unusual cases, on the road, providing owners with potential opportunities or at least factors worth considering when making Start/Sit hitting decisions for Week 7.
Miami Marlins: 7 Road Games
Jorge Alfaro, CA Miami Marlins
Pitching Matchups
Cole Hamels/Jon Lester/Kyle Hendricks/Yu Darvish/Zack Wheeler/Jason Vargas/Jacob deGrom
2019 Road Stats:
34 ABs – 4 HRs – .324 BA – 1.038 OPS
I’m not a big fan of the pitching matchups. The Chicago Cubs pitching staff has been very good lately and I am reluctant to challenge Zack Wheeler and Jacob deGrom if I can help it. However, the catching position is abysmal and Alfaro has been the one Marlin who has hit well on the road. He’s got a seven game week with a good home/road split at a position with very few viable alternatives. That’s enough to Start him in Week 7 for me.
Seattle Mariners:: 7 Road Games
Dan Vogelbach, DH/UT/1B Seattle Mariners
Pitching Matchups:
C.C. Sabathia/Masahiro Tanaka/TBA/J.A. Happ/Eduardo Rodriguez/Rick Porcello/TBA
2019 Road Stats:
42 ABs – 7 HRs – .357 BA – 1.446 OPS
As the statistics suggest, Vogelbach has had a great start to the 2019 season and an especially good one on the road. However owners, “Don’t be Fantasy Fooled.”
He has one home run and is batting .091 with a .697 OPS against left-handed pitching in 2019 and he will face three, possibly four, this week. Two mediocre lefties in the Bronx against the New York Yankees (C.C. Sabathia and J.A. Happ) and then at least one (Eduardo Rodriguez) if not two at Fenway Park against the Boston Red Sox. And, the second one could be David Price or Chris Sale.
The Home/Road splits suggest that Vogelbach is a Must-Start, while his left/right splits suggest that he is close to a Must-Sit. The deciding factor for me is his recent performance. He has only four hits in his last 10 games and hasn’t hit a home run since April 20. The Sell-High time is gone while the bench time has long since begun. In spite of his road numbers and his seven-game week, Sit the one-dimensional mirage. He has been a repeat member of my Start/Sit hitting decision column, but it’s looking like his days of relevance could be coming to an end. We’ll see.
Jay Bruce, 1B/OF Seattle Mariners
Pitching Matchups:
C.C. Sabathia/Masahiro Tanaka/TBA/J.A. Happ/Eduardo Rodriguez/Rick Porcello/TBA
2019 Road Stats:
44 ABs – 6 HRs – .273 BA – 1.040 OPS
Bruce is another Mariner left-hander that has been good on the road and struggled making contact against left-handers. He does have three home runs and a 1.006 OPS this season, but his .176 batting average in only 17 at-bats has me concerned. Bruce hasn’t been as bad as Vogelbach against left-handed pitching, but the splits are still against him. “Don’t Be Fantasy Fooled” by the 2019 road stats. He’s a Sit too.
Colorado Rockies: 6 Home Games at Coors Field
Pitching Matchups:
Madison Bumgarner/Tyler Beede/Derrick Rodriguez/Eric Lauer/Joey Lucchesi/Nick Margevicius
Unfortunately for Fantasy owners, the Rockies don’t have a player that deserves special consideration in what is an extremely friendly home schedule in Week 7. I noticed a few good games from Ian Desmond recently and he does have two home runs in the last 14 days, but overall he hasn’t played well enough to insert in lineups.
Raimel Tapia has three home runs at Coors field, but he hasn’t played well enough to start over viable alternatives either. Trevor Story has one home run while batting .185 in the last week, but that’s too small a sample to Sit him. He has been too good to put serious thought into benching him after a bad week and he is stealing bases, elevating his floor when the batting average dips like it has recently. I wish there was a Rockie whose status changed for the better because of a seven day Coors schedule, but there just isn’t. Sorry.
Oakland Athletics: 6 Home Games
Matt Chapman, 3B Oakland A’s
Pitching Matchups:
Tyler Mahle/Sonny Gray/Tanner Roark/Cody Anderson/Trevor Bauer/Jefry Rodriguez
2019 Home Stats:
55 ABs – 6 HR – .327 BA – 1.160 OPS
Chapman has nine home runs and a .300 batting average, so he was probably starting for most Fantasy owners already, but he has hit especially well at home and against right-handed pitching in 2019. He leads the team in home runs, batting average and OPS against righties and he will face six of them in Week 7. Trevor Bauer is a certified ace, but outside of him, the field looks juicy for a big week from Chapman.
He isn’t a well-publicized player outside of sabermetric circles, possibly due to the A’s low profile and being on the West Coast, making him a more affordable option than he should be in Daily Fantasy. He looks like a strong target with really good splits that should come at affordable price tags in DFS. He is an easy Start/Sit hitting decision, but for DFS players or those who haven’t noticed, I mentioned in this space this week.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 7 Home Games
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF Los Angeles Dodgers
Pitching Matchups:
Max Fried/Mike Foltynewicz/Kevin Gausman/Patrick Corbin/Anibal Sanchez/Max Scherzer/Stephen Strasburg
2019 Home Stats:
55 ABs – 9 HRs – .455 BA – 1.487 OPS
Bellinger might be the Fantasy baseball MVP through May 6, but he has been an even scarier monster at home. He is a Must-Start in Start/Sit Hitting decisions for the week while he is also a Must-Start target in DFS. Pay the price, whatever it happens to be this week.
Owners may instinctively want to fade him against Scherzer and Strasburg over the weekend, but the stats suggest even that would be a mistake. He has hit 10 home runs and has a .466 batting average against right-handers this season while the two National aces have allowed a combined 10 home runs this season.
Joc Pederson, OF Los Angeles Dodgers
Pitching Matchups:
Max Fried/Mike Foltynewicz/Kevin Gausman/Patrick Corbin/Anibal Sanchez/Max Scherzer/Stephen Strasburg
2019 Home Stats:
47 AB – 7 HR – .277 BA – 1.191 OPS
Pederson has been good at home and incredible against right-handed pitching in 2019. He has seven home runs at home and 10 against right-handed pitching with an OPS of 1.053. Good for owners that he has seven home games against six righties in Week 7. He is a Must-Start, even if he sits against Fried and Corbin. He is one of the best Start/Sit hitting decisions of the week. He was only active in 70% of Fantrax.com leagues. This week that number has to be closer to 100%. The splits are grossly weighted in his favor.
Start/Sit Hitting Decisions: Left/Right Splits
Just like being at home or on the road can have an impact on a players performance, so can the handedness of the pitchers they face. I always struggled against left handed pitching. Odd as a right handed bat. I think my approach was all wrong. But I digress.
Here are some NoteWorthy Left/Right splits for Week 7.
Splits vs. Left-Handed Pitching
Ketel Marte, 2B/OF/SS Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitching Matchups
Blake Snell/Charlie Morton/Tyler Glasnow/Mike Soroka/Julio Teheran/Max Fried/Mike Foltynewicz
Stats Vs. Left Handed Pitching in 2019
44 AB – 5 HR – .318 BA – 1.023 OPS
Marte has been hot of late, hitting three home runs with a .429 batting average over the last seven days with five home runs over his last 14. And, he has been especially good against left-handed pitching. Unfortunately, he is only scheduled to face two this week and one of them is Blake Snell. Marte isn’t a household name, but his recent performance has me voting yes in my Start/Sit hitting decisions for Week 7 and the fact that he came to my attention because of his left/right split is NoteWorthy, but mostly a non-factor in Week 7. But, something to watch going forward.
Ozzie Albies, 2B Atlanta Braves
Pitching Matchups:
Walker Buehler/Hyun-Jin Ryu/Clayton Kershaw/Luke Weaver/Zack Greinke/M Kelly/TBA
Stats Vs. Left Handed Pitching in 2019
35 AB – 4 HR – .400 BA – 1.143 OPS
It’s a small sample, but Albies likes his pitching left-handed. He has seven home runs on the season, but it’s the batting average that owners should be impressed by. The more contact Albies makes, the more likely we are to see home runs. He’ll face two lefties with a chance to face a third, possibly Robbie Ray? on Sunday.
The downside and what makes Albies a slightly more difficult Start/Sit hitting decision in Week 7 is that he is batting .245 on the road. It doesn’t change the final decision, which is that he is a start in Week 7, but it makes me less ravenous about the choice. He is mentioned in this column this week because of his impressive left/right splits. He’s a Must-Start until further notice.
Splits Vs. Right Handed Pitching
Mitch Moreland, 1B Boston Red Sox
David Hess/Andrew Cashner/Dan Straily/Erik Swanson/Felix Hernandez/Michael Gonzales
Stats Vs. Right Handed Pitching in 2019
82 AB – 9 HR – .207 BA – .853 OPS
Moreland is a platoon player who leads the Red Sox in home runs against right-handed pitching with nine. He’ll face five righties this week, three of them Baltimore Orioles, who have allowed a combined 22 home runs this season. Not their entire staff. Just Mr. Hess, Cashner and Straily combined. He will also face Felix Hernandez, who had a good start recently, but also has a 4.31 ERA and has allowed five home runs himself.
Moreland is likely to see at least five starts this week and his home run prowess against righties is too sweet to ignore. He is a relatively easy Start/Sit hitting decision this week. The splits like him a lot and Fantasy owners, DFS especially, should too.
Franmil Reyes, OF San Diego Padres
Pitching Matchups
Jacob deGrom/Noah Syndergaard/Steven Matz/Kyle Freeland/German Marquez/Anthony Senzatela
Stats Vs. Right Handed Pitching in 2019
79 AB – 8 HRs – .253 BA .894 OPS
Reyes leads the Padres with eight home runs against right-handed pitching in 2019 and they have three games at Coors field to sweeten the Week 7 pot. He will have to face two tough matchups in New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom and potential ace Noah Syndergaard. In a four-righty week with these splits, Reyes is an appealing consideration before owners consider the Coors effect and whether to imbibe responsibly or outrageously on Reyes. However, he has zero home runs and a .573 OPS against left-handed pitching and the Padres will face two of them this week.
The Padres have a lot of outfield options and with his poor performance against left-handed pitching, I lean Sit in my Start/Sit hitting decision for Reyes this week. DFS owners should target him however, especially in Coors against Senzatela.
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