Starting Pitcher Barometer, Week 13: A Gallen Of New Pitchers

Well, we’re officially back to the point of the season where I look at the bottom of the Starting Pitcher Barometer and say “woof”. We had a bunch of injuries and demotions this week (see the bottom of this page) which means new blood on the back end. That isn’t always a good thing. We’ll look at a few of the newcomers today, and at least one of them is exciting!

There are still some good stashes that will impact the list whenever they arrive. Dylan Cease could be up any day, and Alex Reyes – while chock full of risk – could be a difference maker as well. Look especially towards the future of the Athletics rotation. Sean Manaea is taking the opposite approach of a contractor and is actually way ahead of schedule. It sounds like AJ Puk will pitch in relief when he’s up, but Jesus Luzardo could be another impact arm with limited innings. Look for all three of those pitchers to arrive sometime after the All-Star break.

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Starting Pitcher Barometer

The Risers & Fallers

• Lance Lynn, TEX (+17) – I won’t go into depth on Lynn in this space because I just wrote him up in my most recent Fire & Ice piece here. His numbers are deceptively lackluster. I expect him to be mixed league relevant the rest of the way.
• Andrew Heaney, LAA (-14) – Owning Heaney has been like waiting in line for Space Mountain at Disney World for two hours only to hop aboard and have some six-year-old puke up some obscenely fluorescent amalgamation of cotton candy, hot dogs, and Sprite all over your face halfway through the ride. Heaney has now made five starts after his delayed start to the season. The results? A genuinely unsettling 5.68 ERA with a FIP and xFIP that both agree that he deserves an ERA over five. The 11.37 K/9 is encouraging, but the control has eluded him, walking 3.55 batters per nine. On the bright side, his velocity is fine. The trouble has been with his changeup. It’s a pitch that he’s never used less than 11% of the time, yet this year has deployed at just a 5.6% clip. I don’t care much for two-pitch starters, which is what Heaney is with just sinkers and curveballs if he’s not using the changeup. The numbers on the change aren’t horrible to this point. That leads me to believe he will continue to gain confidence in it and utilize it more often. Until you see it though, I’d leave him on the bench.
• Anibal Sanchez, WSH (+22) – I discussed Anibal Sanchez last week and why I am now excited about him. This week I just wanted to push him up more into mixed league streaming territory. The 22 spot jump seems larger than it really is because realistically he only leapfrogged some highly mediocre pitching options.
• Jimmy Nelson, MIL (-28) – Ol’ Slippin’ Jimmy, why have you forsaken us? Like Andrew Heaney, Nelson has kept us waiting due to an injury. Now that he’s made three starts, we just wish he never came back. He has a cool 9.75 ERA thanks to 10 walks and 13 strikeouts over his first 12 innings. Suddenly you can’t spell “disaster” without “Jimmy”. It’s just a saying, don’t actually try to add that up. Unlike Heaney, however, Nelson’s velocity is way down. After averaging 93.9 MPH on his fastball in 2018, he is pumping just 92 so far. He’s a long way from the 10.21 K/9, 2.46 BB/9, and 3.05 FIP from 2018. I don’t want to completely bury him just yet, but you can’t start him until he improves.

The Newcomers

• Zac Gallen, MIA (SP46) – He’s finally here! Men, woman, and children are all dancing in the street to celebrate the Marlins finally punching Gallen’s ticket. Unfortunately, it took an injury to Pablo Lopez, but this is fantasy and Gallen is more exciting right now. He doesn’t have premium velocity or overwhelming stuff, but his command and pitchability are reminiscent of a Kyle Hendricks. Plus he wears cool glasses. His 92-94 MPH fastball is complemented by a solid slider and changeup from the right side, and he will even sprinkle in the odd curve. He gave up just one earned over five innings in his debut against the Cardinals, who have got to be sick of seeing these Marlins rookies (Jordan Yamamoto has dominated them twice in his two starts). He may not ever be as effective as Kyle Hendricks, but he still deserves to be scooped up in all but the shallowest of leagues.
• Tommy Milone, SEA (SP78) – We go from a shiny new toy in Zac Gallen to the crustiest of Quad-A type veterans in Tommy Boy. You can seemingly teach this old dog some new tricks, however, as Milone has really switched up his pitch mix this year. He has scrapped his cutter and is throwing the curve less in favor of increased slider and changeup usage. It’s working well for him, with a 3.03 ERA over 32.2 innings, 8.82 K/9, and 1.38 BB/9. He has only made three starts, working as the “Primary Pitcher” several times, which screws you over in QS leagues. That definitely affects his value. Also, while his peripherals don’t indicate any sort of implosion is forthcoming, he could easily turn back into Tommy Milone at any moment. I don’t see him being a huge asset at any point, but he could certainly be of use in deeper leagues.
• Framber Valdez, HOU (SP83) – Framber sneaks in the back end of the Starting Pitcher Barometer more because of a lack of competition than any real excitement on my part. Sorry to moisten your blanket, but I can’t lie to you. He’s a lefty who sits 92-93 with the fastball – and I always like a lefty – but he’s just a two-pitch pitcher. His curveball is ludicrous, with a 2,920 RPM spin rate that generates 21.3% whiffs and an insane .161 xwOBA. Of course, when the batter knows it’s coming over one-third of the time and his only other concern is the fastball, it’s harder to find success with that pitch. His show-me change has just a four MPH gap from his heater and doesn’t get many whiffs. He has really improved his control, at least, with a strong 64.8% F-Strike% and 45.1% Zone%. If the improved control sticks, perhaps he can be more than a left-handed Dinelson Lamet.

The Top 100 Starting Pitchers

Rnk	Pitcher	Prev Rnk
1	Max Scherzer	1
2	Jacob DeGrom	2
3	Justin Verlander	3
4	Gerrit Cole	4
5	Chris Sale	6
6	Stephen Strasburg	9
7	Patrick Corbin	7
8	Blake Snell	5
9	Luis Castillo	8
10	Zack Greinke	10
11	Charlie Morton	11
12	Clayton Kershaw	12
13	Mike Clevinger	13
14	James Paxton	14
15	Trevor Bauer	15
16	Jose Berrios	16
17	Walker Buehler	20
18	Hyun-Jin Ryu	24
19	David Price	22
20	Aaron Nola	17
21	Matt Boyd	23
22	Lucas Giolito	26
23	Frankie Montas	29
24	Mike Soroka	25
25	Noah Syndergaard	18
26	Shane Bieber	19
27	Jake Odorizzi	30
28	Chris Paddack	NR
29	Madison Bumgarner	28
30	German Marquez	21
31	Masahiro Tanaka	34
32	Cole Hamels	37
33	Brandon Woodruff	35
34	Zack Wheeler	32
35	Jack Flaherty	33
36	Kenta Maeda	39
37	Mike Minor	41
38	Griffin Canning	45
39	Robbie Ray	43
40	Sonny Gray	46
41	Max Fried	38
42	Brad Peacock	42
43	Jose Quintana	44
44	Spencer Turnbull	49
45	Zach Eflin	50
46	Zac Gallen	NR
47	Nick Pivetta	54
48	Kyle Gibson	55
49	Jon Lester	48
50	Lance Lynn	67
51	Dallas Keuchel	53
52	Eduardo Rodriguez	58
53	Jordan Lyles	59
54	Andrew Heaney	40
55	Yusei Kikuchi	47
56	Martin Perez	56
57	Anibal Sanchez	79
58	Matt Strahm	60
59	Wade Miley	61
60	Rick Porcello	62
61	Yonny Chirinos	71
62	Tyler Mahle	63
63	Tyler Skaggs	72
64	Steven Matz	68
65	Joey Lucchesi	70
66	Marcus Stroman	64
67	Tanner Roark	65
68	Joe Musgrove	66
69	Merrill Kelly	92
70	Mike Foltynewicz	69
71	Michael Pineda	86
72	Jake Arrieta	73
73	Jon Gray	74
74	Chris Bassitt	81
75	Dakota Hudson	76
76	Trevor Williams	NR
77	Trevor Richards	83
78	Tommy Milone	NR
79	Jeff Samardzija	80
80	Jimmy Nelson	52
81	Chris Archer	78
82	Julio Teheran	75
83	Framber Valdez	NR
84	Miles Mikolas	84
85	Dylan Bundy	NR
86	Jordan Yamamoto	NR
87	Danny Duffy	88
88	Sandy Alcantara	94
89	Zach Davies	95
90	CC Sabathia	91
91	Mike Leake	NR
92	Marco Gonzales	90
93	Felix Pena	77
94	Zach Plesac	97
95	Adrian Sampson	98
96	Reynaldo Lopez	89
97	Anthony DeSclafani	99
98	Chase Anderson	100
99	Trent Thornton	NR
100	Jose Suarez	NR

Fell Of The List

Caleb Smith (Injury), Kyle Hendricks (Injury), Rich Hill (Injury), Sean Newcomb (Injury), Pablo Lopez (Injury), Devin Smeltzer (Minors), John Means (Injury), JA Happ (Performance), Eric Lauer (Performance).