We’re getting to the point in the season where performances really start to stabilize. Certain starters such as Trevor Rogers, Tyler Mahle, Kevin Gausman, and #DokkenDude Freddy Peralta are really proving to me that they can be studs and are moving up my starting pitcher rankings. Even old man Max Scherzer is putting together a vintage Scherzer season. Of course, with the good comes the bad, the injured, and the confounding. Here are some notes on those types.
- Zac Gallen has hit the IL with a “minor sprain of one section of his UCL”. This sounds a lot like a teenager explaining to his parent, “I only smashed a minor part of one section of the windshield when I hit that tree”. You can phrase it however you like – it’s bad. The D’backs are going to give Gallen a short “no-throw” period and reassess the damage. I’m gonna go out on a limb and guess we don’t see him again in 2021. Hopefully, you can stash him on the IL until we get more definitive news.
- It often feels like nobody listens to me. Sometimes, even I don’t listen to myself. I violated my own Corey Hart Rule this year, friends. Some of you might remember, but if you have no idea what the hell I’m talking about, the Corey Hart rule relates to (I believe) the 2013 season. I drafted Corey Hart at a discount while he was injured in the preseason. He wasn’t expected to miss much time. Well, a few days on the (then) DL turned into a few weeks, weeks turned into months, and eventually, he was shut down for the entire season. The Corey Hart Rule has come into effect this year with Mike Soroka. What might have been just a few weeks missed from his Achilles injury had turned into months with additional shoulder inflammation. Now we hear he’s going to have “exploratory” surgery on his Achilles, and it’s not the type of exploration Indiana Jones does with Short Round. We may be stuck with a Soroka-less 2021.
- Sorry to give everyone whiplash on my Patrick Corbin rankings. Naturally, a week after I tanked him on the list, he turned around and posted a season-best 92.7 MPH velocity on his fastball. He also jacked up his slider usage. Corbin opened the season at 90.6 MPH, which is where he sat in his subpar 2020. Assuming this isn’t a one-game spike, this is promising. We should be safe starting Corbin in all formats again.
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The Starting Pitcher Barometer
The Risers
Shohei Ohtani, LAA (+12) – Probably the most exciting player to watch in baseball is also the most difficult to rank. I’m not worried about his contributions in the batter’s box for SP Barometer purposes, of course. The same guy who has a very sexy-time 14.03 K/9 and 2.10 ERA (3.59 FIP) also has 5+ walks in three of five starts. The strikeouts alone are enough to keep him started in every league in a Robbie Ray sort of way. However, he also walked just one batter in his latest effort against the streaking Astros. The hope is that the more he gets used to being back on the mound, the more he can reign in his control and improve his 42.7% Zone%. If he can get back to his 3.83 BB/9 he posted in 2018, he’ll get pushed up to SP2/3 territory.
Rich Hill, TB (+22) – Three consecutive scoreless starts with a 17:6 K:BB ratio over those 15.2 IP earns Dick Mountain a big bump this week. On top of the effectiveness, Hill has now gone six-plus innings in four of eight starts. There isn’t really anything new to dive into here, as he pretty much is what he is here at 41-years-old. He’s just about 90% fastballs and curves, but that’s all he has needed for years. We can’t forget that he’s about as brittle as any pitcher, so don’t expect this to last all season. Just ride him while you can.
The Fallers
Lucas Giolito, CHW (-6) – Giolito drops out of the top 10 all the way down…to 15. Those who dropped an early pick on Giolito have to be bummed with his 4.97 ERA through 41.2 IP. The scary part is that he isn’t just experiencing a bunch of bad luck. He’s just been kinda bad.
He has a .269 BABIP thus far despite a career-worst 12.5% Barrel% and 42.9% Hard Hit%. His fastball is getting hit harder than last year, with a .366 xwOBA and 93 MPH average exit velocity compared to a .290 xwOBA and 90.3 EV in 2020. His third pitch, the slider, has also been less effective. It has an ugly .382 xwOBA compared to a .227 xwOBA in 2020.
Giolito has been an ace for two years now and is still just 26-years-old, so there is every reason to think he’ll right the ship. Most of his bad numbers stem from his 1 IP 7 ER start against Boston where he had to…wake up too early. Apparently, Lucas is seriously not a morning person. He’s probably just a mechanical tweak away from getting back to his studly self. I’d be buying if I could.
Charlie Morton, ATL (-12) – I don’t really have a choice but to sink Morton like a holey dinghy after his latest clunker of a start. Break out your favorite yellow raincoat, because it’s raining runs out here. Morton has allowed 18 runs (12 earned) over his last four starts (16 IP). He has allowed a bunch of hard contact, with a 115.5 MPH max exit velo ranking him in the bottom 6% in the league. He also has a poor 18th percentile chase rate at 22.8%, an aspect of his game that had been a plus for him in recent years. His walk rate is also up to 3.69 BB/9 due to a lower F-Strike% (58%) and Zone% (42.3%).
So, that’s the bad news. The good news is that his velocity has actually increased a tick and a half. He has also frozen batters like a fish stick with a 19.6% called strike rate. Did I cite that stat just to make a fish stick joke? Yes. It actually is the 11th best mark among starters (min. 30 IP) though, so I’m not totally off the rails yet. The strikeouts are there (10.15 K/9) despite the struggles, and his 3.91 SIERA, among other ERA indicators, spy smoother sailin’ ahead. He’s not a bad buy-low if you can find a frustrated fishmonger Morton owner.
The Newcomers
Tyler Anderson, PIT (SP76) – Typically, this is where I mention that simply getting away from Coors Field is huge for a pitcher. However, Anderson spent 2020 with the Giants, in their pitcher-friendly ballpark. He was very blah, with a 6.2% K-BB% and 4.37 ERA. Nothing to see here. Enter, Tyler Anderson: Pittsburgh Pirate! Yarr!! This weeks Barometer has turned decidedly nautical, randomly.
Anderson’s K-BB% through 46.1 2021 innings is a career-best 16%. He’s been getting back to his cutter, bumping up its usage 9% from 2020. Impressively, Anderson has allowed a meager 75.8% zone contact rate. That ranks sixth among starters (min. 30 IP) behind only some weirdos named Burnes, deGrom, Means, Scherzer, and Rodon. He has also increased the spin rate on his fastball over 100 RPM to 2,426, landing in the 86th percentile. All of this is not to say that Anderson is a new stud or anything, but he has the look of a useful streamer.
Logan Gilbert, SEA (SP79) – Gilbert arrived with much fanfare, but his debut start disappointed. The 6’6″ former first-round draft pick debuted against a weak Cleveland lineup but allowed four runs on five hits in four innings. He didn’t walk a batter and struck out five. However, he could have afforded to nibble a bit more and give up a walk or two instead of two home runs.
Gilbert came into the start pumping strikes aggressively. The Cleveland bats figured that out early, though, and got aggressive on the pitches left out over the zone. Gilbert’s stamina also wasn’t quite there yet. He opened at 96-97 with the fastball and was sitting 93-94 just a few innings in. He should be a fine streaming option at some point this season, and in fact, he gets a Tigers lineup next which ranks 28th in MLB with an 82 wRC+. Still, don’t expect too much until he gets stretched out more and builds more stamina.
Top 100 Starting Pitcher Rankings
| Rnk | Name | Prev. Rnk |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gerrit Cole | 2 |
| 2 | Shane Bieber | 3 |
| 3 | Aaron Nola | 4 |
| 4 | Trevor Bauer | 5 |
| 5 | Clayton Kershaw | 6 |
| 6 | Yu Darvish | 7 |
| 7 | Brandon Woodruff | 12 |
| 8 | Max Scherzer | 13 |
| 9 | Walker Buehler | 9 |
| 10 | Tyler Glasnow | 10 |
| 11 | Corbin Burnes | 11 |
| 12 | Zack Wheeler | 14 |
| 13 | Jack Flaherty | 15 |
| 14 | Lucas Giolito | 8 |
| 15 | Hyun Jin Ryu | 19 |
| 16 | Lance Lynn | 17 |
| 17 | Julio Urias | 23 |
| 18 | Sandy Alcantara | 16 |
| 19 | Sonny Gray | 25 |
| 20 | Lance McCullers | 28 |
| 21 | Trevor Rogers | 31 |
| 22 | John Means | 32 |
| 23 | Pablo Lopez | 29 |
| 24 | Jose Berrios | 24 |
| 25 | Zach Plesac | 40 |
| 26 | Blake Snell | 20 |
| 27 | Joe Musgrove | 21 |
| 28 | Carlos Rodon | 26 |
| 29 | Luis Castillo | 27 |
| 30 | Tyler Mahle | 36 |
| 31 | Freddy Peralta | 38 |
| 32 | Kevin Gausman | 42 |
| 33 | Zack Greinke | 30 |
| 34 | Charlie Morton | 22 |
| 35 | Zach Eflin | 47 |
| 36 | Max Fried | 33 |
| 37 | Aaron Civale | 34 |
| 38 | Dylan Bundy | 35 |
| 39 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 37 |
| 40 | Ian Anderson | 41 |
| 41 | Huascar Ynoa | 43 |
| 42 | Nathan Eovaldi | 44 |
| 43 | Alex Wood | 52 |
| 44 | Cristian Javier | 51 |
| 45 | Kenta Maeda | 39 |
| 46 | Marcus Stroman | 45 |
| 47 | Chris Paddack | 46 |
| 48 | JT Brubaker | 48 |
| 49 | Michael Pineda | 49 |
| 50 | Dylan Cease | 50 |
| 51 | Shohei Ohtani | 63 |
| 52 | Brady Singer | 53 |
| 53 | Chris Bassitt | 54 |
| 54 | Danny Duffy | 55 |
| 55 | Anthony DeSclafani | 57 |
| 56 | Madison Bumgarner | 72 |
| 57 | Matthew Boyd | 56 |
| 58 | Frankie Montas | 59 |
| 59 | Robbie Ray | 67 |
| 60 | Patrick Corbin | 73 |
| 61 | Corey Kluber | 64 |
| 62 | Taijuan Walker | 65 |
| 63 | German Marquez | 62 |
| 64 | Sean Manaea | 58 |
| 65 | Domingo German | 79 |
| 66 | Andrew Heaney | 61 |
| 67 | Kyle Hendricks | 68 |
| 68 | Kyle Gibson | 77 |
| 69 | Shane McClanahan | 75 |
| 70 | Mike Minor | 70 |
| 71 | Dinelson Lamet | 66 |
| 72 | Jameson Taillon | 60 |
| 73 | Cole Irvin | 76 |
| 74 | Chris Flexen | 82 |
| 75 | Rich Hill | 97 |
| 76 | Tyler Anderson | NA |
| 77 | Yusei Kikuchi | 78 |
| 78 | Logan Webb | 81 |
| 79 | Logan Gilbert | NA |
| 80 | Jordan Montgomery | 69 |
| 81 | Alex Cobb | 80 |
| 82 | Jon Gray | 83 |
| 83 | Adbert Alzolay | 96 |
| 84 | Spencer Turnbull | 93 |
| 85 | Garrett Richards | 87 |
| 86 | Ryan Weathers | 74 |
| 87 | Steven Matz | 85 |
| 88 | Luis Garcia | 86 |
| 89 | Carlos Martinez | 88 |
| 90 | Adam Wainwright | 91 |
| 91 | Nick Pivetta | NA |
| 92 | David Peterson | NA |
| 93 | Kwang Hyun Kim | 94 |
| 94 | Dane Dunning | 95 |
| 95 | Jake Arrieta | 98 |
| 96 | Adrian Houser | 99 |
| 97 | Wade Miley | 100 |
| 98 | Triston McKenzie | 92 |
| 99 | Johnny Cueto | NA |
| 100 | Ross Stripling | NA |
Fell Off The List:
Jacob deGrom (Injury), Zac Gallen (Injury), Jose Urquidy (Injury), Nate Pearson (Minors), Ryan Yarbrough (Performance/Role), JA Happ (Performance).
Like Nathan’s take on Starting Pitcher Rankings? For more help, check out Eric Cross’s latest Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire column.
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