With the NFL Draft in the books, it’s time to really start getting excited about the 2021 season. Last May, I called my shot on Tampa Bay winning the Super Bowl after they signed Tom Brady, and that call ended up working out pretty well.
But so many variables come into play during any team’s Super Bowl run, chief among them being roster health, which is all but impossible to predict. Just think about how differently Super Bowl LV might have gone had Patrick Mahomes not been without both starting tackles on his offensive line. All that being said, given what we know right now, here are the best rosters in the league who have a good chance to go all the way and win Super Bowl LVI.
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The Best Bets to Win Super Bowl LVI
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +675
The Buccaneers are among the favorites to win Super Bowl LVI and No. 1 in my power rankings, but it hardly seems necessary to dedicate an entire article to them. Unlike last offseason, when Tampa Bay was listed at +1400 or so to win Super Bowl LV, they are currently the second-most favored team to win it all this season behind only Kansas City. It makes sense given that the Buccaneers retained all 22 of their offensive and defensive starters from Super Bowl LV. In other words, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”.
Most conversations about Tampa Bay surround their elite defense, which ranked fifth in overall defensive DVOA last year, fifth in pass defense DVOA, and first in run defense DVOA. In fact, there have been some ridiculous arguments made about the defense having carried the team to their Super Bowl win. While the defense certainly did their part in shutting down Mahomes, Brady and the offense ranked third in overall offensive DVOA last season, fifth in passing DVOA, and 10th in rushing DVOA. And the scary thing is, that was Brady’s first year in Bruce Arians’ offense without a real training camp or preseason. The Buccaneers’ offense could be even better in 2021.
In free agency, Tampa Bay mostly focused on re-signing the guys who got them to the Super Bowl last year like Shaquil Barrett and Chris Godwin, but the addition of Giovani Bernard shouldn’t be overlooked. One of their few weaknesses on offense last year was the lack of a reliable outlet receiver like Brady had in James White in New England, and Bernard fills that role perfectly. Adding Joe Tryon in the NFL Draft bolsters an aging group of pass-rushers, and they added depth on defense and at offensive line with their other picks. The biggest question for the Buccaneers is simply health. If their starters stay healthy, expect to see them defending their title on the biggest stage this coming February.
Kansas City Chiefs +500
Until proven otherwise, the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through Kansas City, and it’s not difficult to see why. Even with major losses on the offensive line and playing against a top Tampa Bay defense in the last Super Bowl, Mahomes made some heroic throws under pressure that might’ve tipped the scales in their favor had his receivers been able to haul in those passes. Barring injuries, Kansas City is primed to make another deep playoff run.
Clearly aware of the need to better protect Mahomes, the Chiefs made great strides in bolstering their offensive line this offseason by signing Joe Thuney and Austin Blythe in free agency and trading for Orlando Brown. There’s little to do on offense, as Kansas City already ranked second in overall offensive DVOA and in passing DVOA in 2020, but the improved offensive line should help elevate their run game, which ranked just 13th in DVOA last season. At the end of the day, there’s little concern about the offense regressing under Mahomes and Andy Reid and with weapons like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.
Defense is the primary concern for the Chiefs en route to Super Bowl LVI. The addition of Jarran Reed in free agency and the selection of Nick Bolton in the second round of the NFL Draft reinforces the defensive line and strengthens their pass rush, but there’s still a lot of work to be done to boost a defense that ranked 22nd in overall defensive DVOA last year, 16th in pass defense DVOA, and 31st in run defense DVOA. But if anyone can overcome the shortcomings of their defense to return to their third straight Super Bowl, it’s Mahomes & Co. However, just about everything else will need to go right; they’re the betting favorites but No. 2 in my power rankings.
Los Angeles Rams +1300
After losing to the Patriots in Super Bowl LIII and having failed to make it back to the big game since, the Rams made a decisive change at quarterback this offseason by moving on from Jared Goff and trading for Matthew Stafford. Their defense has always played a considerable factor in their postseason runs, often making up for the shortcomings of their offense. But with Stafford at the helm, Los Angeles could now potentially complement their stout defense with an efficient scoring offense.
The Rams were actually 10th in overall offensive DVOA last year, but their 19th-ranked passing offense was being carried by their efficient run game, which ranked fourth in the league. The quarterback upgrade should vault their passing efficiency up quite a bit considering that Goff averaged just 6.5 intended air yards per pass attempt (IAY/PA) in 2020, fourth-worst in the league, compared to Stafford’s 9.0 IAY/PA, which ranked eighth-highest among quarterbacks. To facilitate their downfield attack, they also signed DeSean Jackson and added rookie speedster Tutu Atwell via the draft.
Last year on defense, Los Angeles ranked fourth in overall defensive DVOA (even better than the Buccaneers), fourth in pass defense DVOA, and third in run defense DVOA. Even having lost some impact pieces on their secondary in free agency, the Rams should continue to boast a formidable defense anchored by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. They added more depth on defense as well, having used five of their draft picks on defensive players at a variety of positions. A modest increase in offensive scoring to complement their defensive prowess could be enough to punch the Rams’ ticket to Super Bowl LVI.
Cleveland Browns +1600
The times they are a-changin’ for Browns fans…maybe. Last season, Cleveland finally made the playoffs for the first time since 2002, ending nearly two decades of mediocrity and sadness. The Browns have never made it to a Super Bowl, but that might finally change under Kevin Stefanski, whose strong run scheme might be just the answer needed to help keep Mahomes on the sideline as much as possible if they meet again in the playoffs.
In 2020, the Browns ranked ninth in overall offensive DVOA, 10th in pass DVOA, and seventh in rushing DVOA despite Nick Chubb having missed four games due to injury. And in Stefanski’s offense, Baker Mayfield‘s completion rate increased from 59.4 percent in 2019 to 62.8 percent in 2020 despite his IAY/PA also having increased from 8.6 to 9.0 yards, and his interceptions fell from 21 in 2019 to just eight in 2020. With the offensive line mostly intact following free agency and the return of a healthy Odell Beckham from a torn ACL suffered last October, Cleveland’s offense could take another step forward.
Like the Chiefs, defense ailed the Browns last year. Cleveland ranked just 25th in overall defensive DVOA, 25th in pass defense DVOA, and 19th in run defense DVOA, but they’ve made significant signings to remedy that. This offseason, the Browns added John Johnson and Troy Hill to their secondary, both former Rams, and the additions of Jadeveon Clowney and Takkarist McKinley to Myles Garrett on the defensive line could create a lethal pass rush combined with a stifling secondary. If Greg Newsome and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah can make an immediate impact as rookies, the defense looks menacing. On paper at least, the Browns look to be legit contenders to make it to Super Bowl LVI and maybe even win it.
Honorable Mentions
Buffalo Bills +1300
Don’t worry Bills fans, I’m not counting them out by any means. Buffalo gave Kansas City a run for their money in the AFC Championship game before ultimately coming up short, and they have a good shot to make another deep postseason run. The Bills have a strong roster overall and are well-managed, but there are two primary factors that bump them down into the honorable mentions category as Super Bowl LVI contenders.
The first is that we’ve only seen one spectacular year thus far from Josh Allen. Allen ranked fourth in completion percentage last season, but prior to that, he ranked third-worst in 2019 behind only David Blough and Dwayne Haskins and logged the worst completion rate among all quarterbacks in 2018. Even with the arrival of Stefon Diggs, it’s still questionable as to whether Allen can maintain the passing efficiency we saw from him in 2020 considering that his actual completion percent exceeded his expected completion rate by the second-highest margin among all quarterbacks last year.
The second reason is that the AFC East looks to be vastly improved from last year, making the Bills’ divisional games much more difficult in 2021. Buffalo returns with an above-average defense that ranked 12th in overall defensive DVOA last year, but the Dolphins have built a fearsome defense and continue to develop with great draft capital management. The Jets may sport a strong defense as well with Robert Saleh in town, and their offense can’t be any worse than it was under Adam Gase. And finally, the next team worth discussing in this article coming up is being underrated by many.
New England Patriots +3000
It’s quite shocking how quickly many NFL fans have written off the Patriots following Brady’s exodus. Bill Belichick remains one of the greatest football minds alive and considering the major revamp that New England’s roster has undergone, this offseason, it would be rash to write them off prematurely as Super Bowl LVI contenders.
On offense, the return of Marcus Cannon at right tackle bolsters an already solid offensive line following his 2020 opt-out. Their receiving corps. has likewise been upgraded from Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry, Jakobi Meyers, and Damiere Byrd to Nelson Agholor, Jonnu Smith, and Hunter Henry. Cam Newton looked like a shell of himself last year, but it was a season in which there was no real training camp or preseason, where the Patriots had no impact receiving weapons, and where Newton himself was recovering from COVID. If Newton can get them in position to make the playoffs, Mac Jones could take the reins at some point. Does a mid-season quarterback change and a young quarterback phenom leading the Patriots to a deep playoff run sound familiar at all?
On defense, their secondary remains one of the best in the league with Stephon Gilmore, Jonathan Jones, and J.C. Jackson at cornerback. The Patriots also upgraded their front seven with Dont’a Hightower returning from his 2020 opt out, and he’ll get help from the newly-signed Matt Judon and the return of Kyle Van Noy after he spent a year in Miami. After a rare season in which New England missed the playoffs, expect Belichick & co. to be back with a vengeance.
Denver Broncos +2500
The Broncos are among the teams considered to be in the running for Aaron Rodgers. The most likely scenario seems to be Rodgers staying in Green Bay, but in the event that he was to join Denver, his presence combined with their receiving weapons and top defense would instantly make the Broncos a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Denver sports a stout secondary after signing Kyle Fuller and Ronald Darby in free agency and then drafting Patrick Surtain in the first round of the NFL Draft, and their front seven, bookended by Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, looks to be problematic for opponents. Head coach Vic Fangio can wreak havoc on opposing offenses with that unit to work with, but the Broncos’ offense is nothing to scoff at either.
With Courtland Sutton back healthy after suffering a torn ACL last year, Denver boasts a bevy of receiving weapons with him, Jerry Jeudy, and Noah Fant in concert with a strong running game led by Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams. If Rodgers is under center for this offense, there is record-breaking potential. And even if Rodgers remains with the Packers, the Broncos’ current quarterbacks could be enough. There’s a possibility of Drew Lock taking a step forward in his development in his third year like Josh Allen did in 2020, or Teddy Bridgewater could manage the offense and be safe with the ball, letting the defense carry them. The AFC West is a tough division to overcome, but the potential is there for Denver.
For more fantasy football and NFL content, follow me on Twitter @FFA_Meng. Also, check back for more, as we’ll be covering the dynasty football angle all year round.
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